I predict 9m.

I think it can get 10 million for both épisodes.

XFactor should rate comfortably above last years 8.1million opening audience. Should be looking for about 9.5million tomorrow.

I think 9.5m is achievable, but whether it'll get that is anyone's guess.

9 million however, is probably the benchmark. It would be disappointing to see it below that given all the work they've put in this series, with the format changes and the promotion campaign.

It's probably been mentioned before, but partly the reason why the last series got off to a mediocre start was because it was overshadowed by the Olympics, and it kind of came off the back of what was possibly ITV's worst ever period (during the Olympics) so it needed a bit more time to rejuvenate.

Britain's Got Talent launched with 9.4m (37%) / 10.6m (42%), and faced The Voice for almost its whole duration (apart from the last 15 minutes - and the clash resulted in the huge +1 figure). X Factor's competition is probably going to be roughly half of that so it really shouldn't have an issue. Just a case of whether people want to tune in or not.

There is a lot of hype this year, more so than last year definitely. I even heard people talking about it in the gym today! I haven't had that feeling since 2010. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect 2010 ratings but I would hope a good 8.5-9 million.

Considering the show has posted double digit year on year declines for every episode since September 2011, a double digit year on year rise seems a bit much. You're effectively suggesting it'll get 10m with +1 which it won't.

I think it will do well. I think there's been a lot of build up and it seems fresher already.

Could go either way - but he is famed for making over the top predictions which make him look a bit daft.

I'll repost what I posted a while back, projections for the first episode (given that it launched with 8.09m last year) as there seem to be more people around here now.

-5%: 7.68m
-10%: 7.28m
-15%: 6.88m
-20%: 6.47m
-25%: 6.07m

+5%: 8.5m
+10%: 8.9m
+15%: 9.3m
+20%: 9.71m
+25%: 10.11m

There is no way it can get 9.5m - if it does I'll be extremely surprised. You can't expect for it to rise by almost 20% after two years of 20% declines. There does seem to be a lot more hype around this year though so I think around 9m would be good enough. For them to reverse the decline in the first place is something.

9m would be about an 11% rise on last year which does seem more realistic, but we won't know for sure until tomorrow morning.

You should really use the numbers including +1 as that is what ITV, the advertisers and the producers will be looking at. Last year it launched with 8.71m including +1, so:

-25%: 6.53m
-20%: 6.97m
-15%: 7.40m
-10%: 7.84m
-5%: 8.27m

FLAT: 8.71m

+5%: 9.15m
+10%: 9.58m
+15%: 10.02m
+20%: 10.45m
+25%: 10.89m

Considering last year's final was down 15% from 2011's, you'd expect it to launch 15% down this time, which would put it at 7.4m. However, there are more positive factors in play which could cause a rise from that and help it hold onto more of last year's viewers. Overall I'm expecting 8.5-9.0m, but wouldn't be stunned if it fell a few hundred thousand outside of that range (either side). Anything below 8m and they have a real mountain to climb and things will not look good. 9.5m+ would be absolutely fantastic but seems very unlikely.

Even if it is in the 8m range, maybe it'll have an easier ride on climbing this year. Even in one of the highest rated series' of the show (series 6), the lowest point was 9.1m (bootcamp). The Sunday episodes from the start should help boost the show a bit more, create an "event TV" feel etc.

A 5% increase (if it increases) looks pretty likely. If it decreases, I would hope it also stays around 5%, as I don't think they want another set of falls.

X Factor is unpredictable though - it'll be hard to predict for real until we've seen the show. There does seem to be a more positive atmosphere around.

EDIT: Not to mention "X Factor" is already trending.

I think it was a pretty good show last night. We had our fair share of joke acts, as well as good acts. There seemed to be better chemistry between the judges. Less of the TOWIE editing, backstage drama etc, they seemed to have toned it down quite a lot.

I think, and hope, that it'll rate pretty well.

I'm seeing 11 million.

8.8million watched

XFactors 2nd worst rating launch in 7 series

Up on last year. Above 9m with +1. Nice.

Good rating and nice to see an increase after two years of massive declines. Around 9m inc. +1 which is what I predicted and they couldn't ask for more than that. It wasn't going to get 9.5m but hopefully it can grow from here on as the new format seems to be getting a positive reaction across social media.

I think it can grow from here, word of mouth should help it. After a year of 20%+ declines, it's nice to see a rise, of about 8%.

I'll be back with a full round-up once the full figures are released.

I agree, those ratings aren't bad and I think the show needs to focus on putting on a good, solid show each week and hopefully the numbers will gradually rise. The XF isn't automatically the biggest show anymore - they've got to win people back

Averaged 9.2m with +1, peaking at 10.3m.

exceeded my expectations but after watching the episode those ratings were thoroughly deserved! It is Officially BACK ON TRACK!

Nice to see, it's finally back on track...

Fantastic rating

Finally, The X Factor is back on track. I think the ratings will grow and grow from here. A peak of over 10 million for a show that has been declining, is impressive.

Thanks Mrs O and The Room

Also I can see Sunday nights show being even higher.

I think we could see an average of over 9 million (even without +1) for tonight's Sunday show.

The positive response and word-of-mouth should help it, hopefully.