I doubt it can, the overall lineup isn't that strong and the final 12 isn't all that. The good is of the decent variety rather than the wow variety.

The only way it can is if there are one/two contestants which get the public interested. Doubt that'll happen either.

I really don't understand why they don't simply reschedule the shows. Simon used to do BGT, AI and TXF all in the same year... now he's only doing one show. I'm sure they could move things around so that he could do both shows.

The US show doesn't go in for all the 'Christmas No 1' thing, so move that show to spring.

Or just get rid of US X Factor. It's a huge flop

I watch both shows, and iI think it's obvious why Strictly now comfortably beats the X Factor.

It's more fun
It doesn't take itself too seriously
There's little, if any, manipulation
The judges actually offer constructive criticism, rather than just being nasty for the sake of it.
The pro dancers are far more attractive than any contestant I've ever seen on the X Factor.

By contrast the X Factor is:

Stale and dated
Takes itself too seriously, it is not a matter of life and death, despite what the procurers would have us believe.
Very manipulated, more so than ever.
Now has silly "TOWIE" style scenes
Has exhausted the talent pool in the UK.
By trying to be young, cool and edgy over the past few years has alienated a lot of older viewers, people who are far more like to stay in on a Saturday night. It's not really a "family show" anymore. It's a teenagers one.

The day the X Factor forgot that it was nothing more than a glorified karaoke contest was the day it lost its way. The reason Chris Maloney did so well last year is because he was singing popular, classic hits that people over the age of 25 have actually heard of. It's not rocket science!

He's still doing BGT. That show doesn't see any struggle with getting 9m for the auditions anyway, but falls apart in the live shows.

The demos it is getting at the moment are far from impressive - if they stay at that level or keep dropping it'll be given the axe.

SCD is the biggest show because you don't have to listen to people sing Whitney Houston every single episode. And X Factor is cruel.

To round up:

8.18m (34.8%) / 8.48m (36.1%)

I think X Factor will probably beat Strictly tonight. It's at its strongest on Sunday, although Downton will probably top them both.

XFcator should beat Strictly tonight by a million+ viewers, it has a head start and is airing against no competition between 8-9pm.

Are you referring to the very popular Antiques Roadshow as no competition?

Slightly down on the 8.74m who watched the first one last year. Well down on the 9.8m who watched the 2008 judges houses (that seems to be the favourable comparison year).

Last years second judges houses got 9.84m so it will be interesting to see where this years goes. It will probably be about the same as last year from here on in. It seems the viewers that it won back as last year went along have just watched from the start this year which explains the increase. It would be good to see it bounce back and grow, but if it manages to stabilise after the few drops from the last few years then thats a win too.

Antiques Roadshow gets about 6million viewers. But they are very old viewers, most aged in their 60s and 70s, people who have virtually no interest in watching XFactor. It's no competition for xf;s audience.

Antiques Roadshow could get 7m and not dent XF. That's the least of its worries.

Once Strictly is finished, it has space for a large peak at the end at least.

I posted this in the Ratings Thread - it dictates the 2008 performance shows, and how they fared, especially where there was a clash.

What would happen if ITV do decide to run a live show from 19:00 - 21:15 for example?

So far, though, the series is officially averaging better than 2008.

I guess we'll find out tonight. X Factor starts at 7, SCD at 7.20pm. Its the first time in years X Factor has had a head start. It will be very interesting to see the figures for that one.

rzt has offered to post the breakdown for last night tomorrow.

X Factor actually starts at 19:10. When was the last time X Factor has gotten the lead on SCD?

For XF to beat SCD by a million viewers would see it in the 9-10m range. Usually, this point of the series is a series high so for it to come close to 10m, I don't think is completely out of the question.

X factor should beat strictly tonight, simply because tonights strictly is prerecorded, and if you want to know the results you need only look on these forums.

Predictions for tonight:

X Factor: 9.0m - peak 11.0m (inc +1)
Strictly: 8.3m (peak 9.1m)

X factor-9.4 peak 11.0m inc +1z

Not to mention it's got the lead on Strictly. Starts slightly earlier and finishes much later.

It came very close to 10m for that first Sunday audition show (9.94m inc +1), and this should be slightly up on that, so I predict:

10m - peak of 11.4m (inc +1).

I think it has the opportunity to get a nice figure tonight.

X Factor averaged 8.07m (32.8%) / 8.43m (34.3%), peaking with 10.1m (inc +1).

Strictly beat it excluding +1.

A bit of a poor figure, being a) down on last year, b) down on last week by a million and c) considering it got the head start on SCD. The peak isn't very impressive in comparison to previous weeks either.

Strictly clash obviously dented the average. 10 minute head start is nothing, it's basically equal to them both starting at the same time. Expected much more though, but the peak is decent.

Totally agree with the above.
The big problem is that the manipulation which goes on is now off the scale. Did anybody doubt that the manufactured girl band would not get through to the live shows.?

Too many contestants already with management or record deals means that it is no longer there to find an unknown gem but to give someone in the business already a big hype.......ie the guy Callahan....

if its anything like last year my wife will lose interest by week 2 or 3 of the lives and it will just be the hour on Sunday to endure.

I think it's a bit hypocritical to suggest that one of the reasons Strictly now beats X Factor is because the latter is "stale and dated" when the former has barely changed in the eleven series it's been on air. Not to say I disagree with many of the points made; SCD is a generally more fun and uplifting show and I think in the current climate people are now looking for that kind of programming to watch as opposed to 'harsher' tone of X Factor. There are other reasons of course but as a recently 'converted' Strictly viewer I can see why it's so popular.

Thanks to The Ratings Thread:


Just proves that the overall ratings don't always give the whole picture. ITV would have The X Factor any day over Strictly as I can't name another show that gets even close to that figure in the 16-34 demo.