Auditions Averages (Overnights);

2011: 11.1m
2010: 11.0m
2009: 10.3m
2008: 9.3m
2012: 8.7m
2007: 8.3m
2005: 8.0m
2006: 7.7m
2004: 6.3m

Auditions were, on average, down 22% from 2011.

Bootcamp Averages (Overnights):

2010: 12.0m
2011: 10.7m
2009: 10.0m
2012: 8.8m
2008: 8.6m
2005: 8.5m
2006: 7.2m
2007: 7.0m
2004: 6.9m

Bootcamp episodes were down 18% from 2011.

On the plus side, the bootcamp average was narrowly higher than the average rating for the auditions. It's only the second time in the past seven series that has happened (series 7 in 2010 the only other occasion).

Hey,

I've came up with an idea for determining 'digitalspy' readers' favourite 'X Factor' contestants of all time. It will be a series of tournaments that will go on for as long as we like, and the rankings will update after each tournament, taking into account the last three tournaments. It's a bit hard to explain in a short post, but if you're interested, check it out and cast your votes: http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1738171.

Overnight Series Averages:

X Factor 2004 - 7.0m
X Factor 2005 - 8.3m (up 19%)
X Factor 2006 - 7.9m (down 5%)
X Factor 2007 - 8.2m (up 4%)
X Factor 2008 - 9.8m (up 19%)
X Factor 2009 - 12.0m (up 23%)
X Factor 2010 - 13.0m (up 8%)
X Factor 2011 - 11.2m (down 14%)

Those figures can betray a lot of variations within a series. So the following numbers split each series into 4 parts and compare their ratings performance to the prior series. This gives a better indicator of where things went right (and wrong). The following chart breaks down each series into 4 parts - auditions, bootcamp & judges houses, the first half of the live shows and the second half of the live shows (including the final).

For example, in 2010 the auditions were 7% higher than in 2009. In 2012 the auditions were 21% lower than in 2011.

As we can see from the figures, every series until last year had posted year on year growth in the last 5 weeks even in the 2006 and 2007 series where there were declines earlier in the run.

The arrival of the Sunday results shows definitely boosted the show in 2009 and are the main reason for the extremely high year on year growth. The 2009 results shows were 47% higher than in 2008 although the performance shows were just 11% higher.

The 2008 series was really the start of the major growth period. The performance shows were up 24% on 2007, by far the biggest year on year growth in the performance shows.

The panel worked fine for the auditions last year, it was during the live shows where people became sick of it, hence why we only saw ratings of 9m.

I'm hoping it'll pick up at judges houses, it usually does, especially the Sunday episode. It peaked at 16.6m in 2010, and near 13m last year, so if, hopefully, the judges choose the right contestants which all viewers are happy about, that could keep the viewing figures for the lives stable throughout.

Great analysis! It's almost as if it was peaking up to 2010, viewers took a quick peek at the rejigged panel and crop of 2011 talent in the early part of last series and decided to start turning off. Boredom with the format? Judges not as "good"? 2011/12 talent not as good? All of these and more (quite possibly)? Now it's still pretty healthy in a world with lots of channels etc, and we're only just getting to the business end from now on in 2012, but it has an uphill task to get back to the 2008-10 days.

My own view is the 2012 panel is on a par with 2011 but not as good as 2008-10, people are probably getting X factor fatigue a bit, but that the 2012 talent looks a bit more promising than 2011 (which was not great IMO). That said some really weird judges choices for the live shows (Frankie/Kitty?), the pointless twist in round one, and some talent implosions (Janet/Frankie) scuppered the quality of 2011 so let's hope they don't muck it up too much in 2012.

Nicked from Rzt in the main ratings thread... the following are ratings for the top 10 shows among adults aged 18 to 49 (advertisers don't really pay for older viewers). The rating basically means that 16.7% of UK adults between the ages of 18 and 49 watched X Factor and 9% of them watched Downton Abbey.

1. The X Factor (Sun): 16.7
2. Doctor Who: 9.6
3. Downton Abbey: 9.0
4. UCL: Real Madrid v Man City: 7.5
5. Mrs Brown's Boys [r]: 6.9
6. Watchdog: 6.4
7. Red or Black?: 6.0
8. New Tricks: 5.9
9. Waterloo Road: 5.8
10. Match of the Day: 5.8

You could also title this list "why rumours of X Factor's demise are greatly exaggerated".

It's hard to pinpoint where exactly it went wrong. The auditions were generally on track with the year before although the last couple of episodes were a bit off the pace. Bootcamp was lower still. Judges houses was down even more but it's worth emphasising that the 2010 judges houses stage was absolutely massive.

In the live shows you could really see it start to go wrong. Here are the week by week "performance show" comparisons to the 2010 series and you can see how the gap grows and grows.

-10%, -10%, -17%, -19%, -18%, -20%, -19%, -25%, -24%, -23%

There wasn't a huge loss of viewers throughout the live shows. Most of them rated in the 10m-11m range. The difference was that in previous years the show had grown throughout the live shows, particularly in 2009 and 2010 when fuelled by some controversial contestants.

I think that the production is the problem, it has been terrible, and since the episodes were not live, they could have shown the judges differently. I am hoping that with the end of the recorded shows in front of an audience, and perhaps hints from the viewing public, the production team are going to pull themselves together and rethink their approach.

For me personally, I loved the auditions just in front of the judges, you could hear a pin drop and it was just them, singing in front of the judges. I remember that shy and nervous Leona Lewis walking into the room...it's all changed now with the crowd screaming and corny cliches from the judges.

Haven't really liked X Factor since the auditions went in front of the live audiences, it just went immediately 'pantomime', for me anyway.

Where it's gone wrong is like the wizard of Oz where people begin to see who is behind the curtain and how it all works. The show always walked a fine line but similar to BB as it started trying to up the drama and manipulate things more and more to keep the characters causing it the cracks just got too obvious. The show has mirrored BB really with the last peak year also being the one where the wheels started coming off.

The sing-off was always the safety net to keep the soap storylines on track and cancel out the public vote, but as the characters got bigger and more important to the ratings so the way it was used got too blatant. Starting really with Jedward, then the Katie saga, and most damagingly with Cher and Mary and the rule change to allow it. More people began to see how it was about characters with their stories and shelf-lives, and the tricks used to keep or get rid of them.

Then you had the forced reinvention the next year with Cowell leaving which shot for credibility with Gary and ended falling flat on its face with the character they created in Frankie exploding in their hands. Rendering the new lead judge effectively pointless, as without the credibility he's just a bit dull and forced really. Meanwhile the soap antics increased like the judges' argue and be controversial week, Misha and the bullying, Little Mix's insufferable journey, Tulisa overselling everything, the whole show just got more and more forced.

This year desperately needed a rebranding really, instead you have just more of the same. And more of the same just won't do because less and less people believe it. And where the talent always comes second to the drama, the drama is the whole format of the show, when people stop believing it the reality is then missing from the reality TV show.

It's the same thing that has dogged BB, as they become more and more soap like people begin to tune out because there are only so many ways they can keep trying to peddle the same stories and same type of characters.

Well said.

I think Cowell missing is actually quite fatal for the show as well, as even though no one really believes what he says or doesn't say he's the puppet master. What he says is still seen as key, he's the face of the manipulation. The one who holds the power.

Without him you just have a panel of puppets, so even if you take into account how the show works a key ingredient is still missing.

I think that's why the show is feeling such a drag, you are watching everyone go through the motions but with more disconnect than before. The link between the viewers and what happens in the show has been further damaged.

Very well said, bananafish!

When you had controversy in the past Cowell was the perfect villain. Same with Cheryl actually. When she booted out Gamu the world almost ground to a halt while God wrote his letter to OFCOM. The current judges don't seem to generate the same response. Partly because, as has been said, Barlow can't really be blamed for stuff in the same way that Cowell was because he isn't really in charge in the same way.

Based on what we've seen all series, I wouldn't be surprised if the Saturday episode (of judges houses) averages less than 10 million.

The reason it peaked at 16.6m in 2010 was probably because all the business with Gamu and the 'twist' which was the wildcards. Even if they choose all the best acts (the ones that the viewers want), I doubt it'll peak at that much though I would love to be proved wrong, even though 6 million can't switch on at a certain point during the course of the series.

At this rate, considering the talent, I also think the live shows will rate better than last year.

The makeovers and themes tend to snuff that out and blend everyone into one.

Interest in the live shows is also powered by controversy more than talent, and they are running out of ways of generating it. The show needed rebranding this year to at least give the impression of it being fresh again, they didn't do it and it's too late for that now.

I really don't think the live shows are going to take off this year. The buzz just isn't there. It's hard to believe that we're just a week away from the live shows starting.

I agree with those who are saying it's time to stop being so hopeful and finding excuses. The ratings are not rising to any significant degree and if the return of Cheryl Cole doesn't lift the figures tomorrow, there really is nothing anyone can do about that - they're playing a joker card very early in the run and it's quite a risk.

In terms of the live shows, there's nothing new to offer this year, and I always suspected this would happen. From 2008 onwards, the show got a lot bigger every year and I always thought they would reach a point somewhere down the line where they had no stunts left, and the time is now. For example, the line-up of guests in 2009 was so incredible (Paul McCartney and George Michael in the final) that the guests ever since have seemed underwhelming. The uber-controversy of Wagner and Waissel in 2010 was so over the top that they can't reconjure it again. There have been so many format twists over the last few years that I struggle to think of any new ones that would work.

In short, The X Factor is the emperor's new clothes now. So much hype and so much promised, but all out of ideas and sustained entirely by the public's faith in it.

Once we get to the live shows, this faith is going to fade unless something massive happens. Which leads me to conclude that in terms of live show's ratings, one of two things will happen this year:

1) No significant rise and maybe a slight further decline.
2) A mega-twist that will jump the shark, and raise ratings but destroy all remaining credibility.

I suppose we'll see. There is a very unlikely third option that they just play the live shows safe this year, but that's never going to happen. It's going to be interesting. There's everything to gain and everything to lose.

I think the only twist they could play that would work would be to scrap the sing-offs entirely, but as the sing-off is their safety net it's very unlikely to happen. It's how they keep the stories going until their time is up.

It would add some excitement back to things if they did though.

from the TV forum ratings thread http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showt...31042&page=144

The figures are largely staying the same each week - which is no bad thing imo. The show was good last night and as long as they don't lose viewers, I think the producers will be happy.

But it's still nothing special compared to two years ago, the second judges houses should pick up a lot.

If last week is anything to go by then tonight's Sunday show will be higher. It may not be anything special but I really think it's not bad (I never bought that the viewers would massively increase due to Cheryl's 'return' anyway).

Last year's equivalent episode:

11.8 million (11.0 excl ITV1+1) peak, 51% of total audience. Averaged 9.5m

Second episode last year:

Averaged 11.7m (42.5%), 12.1m (inc +1), peaked with 14.1m (inc +1)

But if we look at the second judges houses episode in 2010:

Averaged 14.1m (48.5%) and peaked at a massive 16.2m (~53%/54%)

So I don't know what the chances are that it'll grow it's audience by 3-4 million in a day, merely impossible but many people say they start watching from this point onwards, I hope to be surprised tomorrow morning.

Is there any way to ensure we get the best ratings possible tonight?

One thing, get it trending on Twitter starting now so everyone knows about the show being on tonight