Originally Posted by Steve Williams:
“There's no need to start sighing over this. I don't think this was the media storm that you're painting...”
I didn't suggest it was a media storm last year I suggested that they covered the disappointing over nights last year and spun their narrative that ratings were down because of how complicated and difficult to follow the show had become. The notion that they can't or won't pick that thread back up again if the over night performance continues to disappoint seems incredibly unlikely to me. Of course they will. The point is one shaky series can be over looked, two begins to point to a trend and then we start to see an increasing media circus over the numbers. And I'd point out that the reason Moffat had to go on the defensive with his '10+ million total reach' figure is because the story kept coming up that the shows ratings were in a slump.
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“But if it falls to new lows, which it easily might given Who is now getting a head start on it, it does become the story...”
I don't think it does.
The papers seem to have no real interest in kicking Ant & Dec and for the time being they can give Cowell a kicking with The X Factor. My guess is that Red or Black becomes the brief addition to Doctor Who and X Factor coverage and never really the main story itself. There's just no real interest in reporting the demise of a show nobody watched or cared about to begin with.
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“I don't think the schedule for September 1st is that boring either...”
You're somewhat missing the point. If you have no desire to watch a quiz show and you don't like Casualty how exciting do you think BBC1's Saturday night schedule is? Its all well and good to say Casualty is a drama alternative but its a drama alternative that the majority of people have already decided to watch or not. Shorten that run and you get to try a wider variety of shows and formats in the slot. There was for example a push in this thread a while back for the BBC to air comedy or more specifically I think Mrs Brown's Boys on Saturday night but realistically how does that fit into the current schedule? The whole thing is just locked down by their instance of clinging to the lottery shows and Casualty rather than trying anything new.
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“I don't know about that, given the budget cuts that are being introduced across the Beeb...”
I wasn't strictly speaking financially afford to do it in terms of the budgeting but rather that they don't have to justify their decision to advertisers so have a lot more freedom than ITV do. ITV for example can't schedule a major show against Strictly Come Dancing because it would dent the ad rate. The BBC don't have to cling to running Casualty and Holby City for as long as they do to keep the ratings. And they don't need to air The One Show every weekday basically every week of the year either. They have the creative freedom and ability I suppose to be able to do that.
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“Well yes, because it means it's a programme that people are wanting to watch...”
Eventually when they get around to it. That doesn't strike me as particularly loyal or dedicated viewing. Its not liking these viewers are falling all over themselves to watch it at the earliest possible time (live). But as I said before unless we know exactly why each person is timeshifting its hard to describe what kind of viewer they are.
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“Sky are always quick to show their flagship programmes over and over again and promote Anytime and Sky+ and so on, so I don't know what the argument is that people watching it on a PVR or online are any less of an audience than people watching it live. The broadcasters encourage it.”
I didn't say they were less of an audience. I said that if people are watching a show they used to watch live via catch-up or timeshift because they aren't invested enough to watch live then what's to stop them from eventually just phasing the show out altogether? And I'd also point out that in my very first post on this subject I pointed out that the final and total reach numbers are still big but that specifically the over nights haven't been (relatively speaking at least). My whole point has been that given the shaky nature of Who's over nights as of late just assuming it'll crush Red or Black out of hand is a mistake and sets the show up for a disastrous fall. And that perhaps people should be looking into why such a large percentage of viewers watch via catch-up.
Originally Posted by morph1970:
“Also, I think it's worth pointing out that Doctor Who's overnight audiences of 5m+ would be decent as FINAL figures for many dramas. If it then goes on to actually increase by up to twice that figure in total reach, well, that's even more amazing!
But for you to then turn that whole thing around 180 degrees, and say – "yes, but only half watch the audience actually watches on the night," is kind of turning what's actually a hugely positive thing into a negative.
It doesn't make ANY sense to say "if more people are timeshifting, how long till they stop watching at all." The people who are catching up via a recording are the MOST LOYAL viewers of all!”
Firstly it depends why someone is timeshifting or using catch-up. To suggest those viewers are the most loyal is a mistake. There's an ever growing list of things that I watch when there's nothing else on. Does that make me a loyal viewer of those shows? The truth is we don't know why people are using catch-up services to watch Doctor Who which is why I'm saying people, and particularly people at the BBC, need to ask the question. The answer is important.
Secondly I really wish people would stop trying to spin any criticism of Who's over nights performance as a criticism of its ratings as a whole or a suggestion that its at death's door. At no point have I done that. I've simply said that for a flagship and expensive drama to be over nighting at 5-6 million on a regular basis should be something people look into regardless of what its timeshift is. So yes 5 million would be great for just about any other drama but Doctor Who isn't any other drama. And like it or not the numbers that get widely reported and that the majority of people actually see are the over nights. As much as people might like to pretend otherwise they still matter in determining the tone of the public conversation of the show.
Originally Posted by JonathanEx:
“One theory: while it's a flagship drama for the BBC, with a large young audience, it's also become a flagship for promoting iPlayer on various devices and become very important for the BBC in terms of promoting new digital stuff. Doctor Who can push people to being more familiar with red button stuff, web content and lots more - it can lead the way in production and lead viewers the way to new ways of watching.
Also, to "Doctor Who's iPlayer stats can include months of catch-up viewing.", while there are those stats from a series worth of viewing, the main ones used are Live+7 (7 days), aren't they?
While it'd be interesting to see if a show like Eastenders saw such a shift in viewing that Doctor Who has - I wonder if that's less likely with the number of episodes and less time between them to catch up?”
All fair points. Hopefully though you'd agree that its something that needs to be looked into so that people can get a better understanding of exactly what's happening and why. As I said before just taking it as read that such a huge percentage of the audience is watching via other means seems like a dangerous road to travel down. But equally if your posited theory is true then Doctor Who potentially provides a road map for opening up other shows to greater total reaches and offers other broadcasters a road map for expanding their online catch-up etc. There's key stuff here that needs to be explored.
On the subject of EastEnders really I was just using that as a quick example to try an explain why I think this is an issue worth exploring and not simply dismissing. Or assuming everyone will just accept that's how it is.