Originally Posted by sn_22:
“I guess their issues might become more apparent in the wider media this year. With The Voice running 2 cycles plus the irrepressible Sunday Night Football, it seems pretty likely that NBC will beat ABC to #3 spot again (this time, without the Superbowl), doesn't it?”
Its hard to say. Certainly it should be a close battle between the two for third place unless one of them stumbles upon a major new hit which seems rather unlikely to be honest. A lot will also depend on how The Voice holds up with two cycles and whether there's any rebound in Dancing with the Stars.
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“The odd thing is I actually felt ABC had a decent season (by their recent standards) last time around...”
They didn't.
The minor success of Revenge and the mixed results of Once Upon A Time certainly don't balance out the negatives ABC took out of last season – plummeting Dancing with the Stars, limping to an end Grey's, no final season bump for Housewives, the Sunday 10PM disasters, the Thursday 8PM disasters, Scandal failing to catch on in a meaningful way, no new comedy breakout, Happy Endings not catching on in season two as they'd hoped and so on and so on.
Originally Posted by paltonz:
“Other than that, like you said, ABC is notorious for scheduling badly. I cannot stress enough how much ABC killed their marvel, Desperate Housewives by placing them against award shows and Winter Olympics mid-season, affecting their season averages.”
And now they're moving Revenge, their only Wednesday 10PM survivor since Lost, to Sunday 9PM where it'll face the exact same problem only without the strength of Housewives in its favour. I honestly cannot even begin to understand what ABC's thinking was with that move.
Originally Posted by paltonz:
“So, with TXF and/or Idol, Glee has potential to improve this season...”
This Thursday 9PM slot is a move they should have made for the second season.
As it is I don't think Glee will actually get an Idol lead-in. I'd be genuinely amazed if The Following doesn't take the Thursday 9PM slot midseason because there's just no way Fox should throw that on the air on Monday night. My guess is that Glee ends up landing back on Tuesday night midseason when half of Fox's Tuesday comedy block dies in the Fall.
Originally Posted by Glenn A:
“Looks like America's answer to TXF, American Idol, is in trouble. Also if its costs are nearly the same as a drama, and considering it has little repeat potential( it was repeated during the screenwriters strike and bombed as no one wants to watch a reality show repeat) and no DVD potential, this is worrying. It must also make broadcasters wonder if the whole reality/talent boom is coming to an end as in Britain there's only really the Cowell shows, The Apprentice and IACGMOOH that get big ratings and the other shows like CBB are now mostly a minor channel thing.”
The cost of American Idol compared to drama or scripted shows is a difficult thing to judge. To fill the space Idol takes up on their schedule Fox would have to have two additional 22 episode dramas and a 13 episode drama. That's going to cost them in the region of $70-80 million plus promotion and doesn't come with some of the huge benefits that Idol still carry. In the grand scheme of things Idol is still very much worth its price tag I suspect. How much longer it can hold onto that, especially with the money they're throwing about this year, is anyone's guess. I think the real problem these shows have is the same thing that classes as a strength when they're doing well – the amount of time they take up. This is particularly true for Fox in the US where having Idol and The X Factor on the schedule makes it incredibly difficult to find space for new shows. Reality television isn't going anywhere though. It might not hit the heights we've seen previously but it'll stick around. When they become massively successful they can get very expensive (although Jersey Shore still costs MTV very little) when they start they're very cheap and costs can be kept very low. The Bachelor still costs ABC very little and will likely out last everyone and everything.
Originally Posted by C14E:
“In fairness, I'd imagine this year will still be a lot cheaper than 2010. They were paying Cowell about $36m a year so even Mariah is on half of that. But of course, that was when the ratings were far higher.”
Costs will be down from where they were with Cowell but up sharply from where they were the last two seasons. Also worth remembering that from Fox's perspective part of the Cowell deal was paying him not to take The X Factor somewhere else whereas this time around they don't really have that to make any of these pay checks go down a little easier.
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“I don't think ABC and NBC are really in the same situation. ABC's scripted series are far stronger and they have found some successful shows, particularly last year. Football and loads of hours of The Voice are going to cover up NBC's problems until Christmas (beyond which The Voice will face year on year comparisons to strong post Superbowl ratings).”
ABC are in an almost identical position to where NBC were a handful of years ago. They've got a group of ageing shows that either have reached their end of their lifespan or are limping over the line and absolutely no sign of any shows capable of replacing them. This is highlighted by the fact that they're having to move a show that was hitting a mid-low 2 last season to a flagship Sunday 9PM slot this season. And what ends up replacing Grey's Anatomy which maybe has 2 seasons left in it if ABC are lucky? They've got nothing for that slot and seem to be gambling everything on the hope that Scandal will magically catch on in its second season.
People forget that NBC didn't get where they are overnight. It took them years to get this screwed and ABC are well on their way down that road now and don't seem to have learnt anything from NBC's mistakes. It should also be noted that NBC had some light at the end of the tunnel over the years as well. A few years ago they had Heroes which was supposed to save the network and then didn't. They had 30 Rock which was supposed to break out as a major comedy hit and didn't. They had The Event which started huge and then plummeted. Last year they had Up All Night self start and then screwed it up with some of the most incompetent scheduling I have ever seen. And then there's The Voice which its beginning to look like they'll run into the ground.
I want you to think about this for a moment – ABC will schedule 19 hours of content Sunday-Friday its entirely possible (if not probable) that of that 19 hours that only Modern Family and Grey's Anatomy will regular break a 3 in the demo. That's 90 minutes of 19 hours of content above a 3 in the demo. Maybe 2 hours if Suburgatory holds onto the Modern Family lead-in.
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“American Idol is still the most watched show among adults 18-49...”
No it isn't.
Sunday Night Football was the most watched show in the demo last season and comfortably show. It averaged a 7.99 whilst Idol's Wednesday show averaged a 6.16. The Voice's Monday night show ran Idol very close last season as well with a 6.12 although I'll be amazed if its that big this season. Modern Family just beat Idol's Thursday night average as well with a 5.54 vs. a 5.53 for Idol. The Big Bang Theory equalled that Idol Thursday average as well. I'm really not sure people have fully taken in how big Idol's drops last season were.
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“The Voice and X Factor are two of the biggest new series on US broadcast TV in recent years where finding a big drama hit has been like finding the proverbial needle.”
Worth mentioning that The X Factor's Wednesday show averaged a 4.36 last season only just ahead of 2 Broke Girls which had a 4.35 so its not really ahead of the pack by much if anything all.
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“Reality series don't need repeats. Drama and comedy are repeated because in a 36 week season they only produce 22 new episodes. Reality series just produce extra hours to fill those slots.”
Scripted shows are repeated because that tends to be when broadcast networks make money off of them. Original airings tend to cover the cost of production if the network is lucky and the show is doing well.
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