Or ITV will pull it to another part of the schedule as a compromise. If the BBC decide The Voice is a costly flop, The X Factor could swap places with Britain's Got Talent...otherwise they may use it to prop up the winter or summer schedule.

As you say, though, it's about ego. Will ITV's money talk louder than Simon's pride? As both ITV and Syco are missing the next big thing there's an air of desperation about both parties at the moment.

Any moving of the show to another part of the year is admitting defeat. If the show ultimately becomes just another talent show and isn't competing at the top of the charts then Cowell will end it. ITV can't offer him enough money to do something he doesn't want.

Whether that happens in 2, 5 or 10 years remains to be seen.

ITV can't include their HD figures due to regional advertising variations. And does it really matter? Just add them together!

It depends what Simon wants; if he's happy with the Got Talent franchise he'll be happy to rest The X Factor and hope it can come back in a few years refreshed. If he wants the additional exposure he'll allow ITV to move it.

The strange thing is I can see him being more accepting if Britain's Got Talent takes a hit - I'm not sure why I think that; maybe because before this year year it had little in way of competition.

Where does this idea that Cowell is going to pull TXF the minute it fails to top the yearly TV chart come from? No offence intended, but I think it's ludicrous.

There is one company out there for whom The X Factor is incomparably important. And I mean massively important. Absolutely pivotal. Utterly indispensable. And that company is not ITV. It's Syco.

Without The X Factor, Syco TV is reduced to Got Talent and a couple of other fledgeling/failing formats like Red or Black. And Syco Music is decimated because there's no TV shows producing artists for it. It's utter commercial suicide for the company. And even if Cowell were the sort of guy who enjoyed knifing in the back the company he's spent a decade of his life building up, I doubt Sony (with their 50% share) would be similarly inclined. Nor would Freemantle, for that matter.

I just think people need to stop buying into the ego-centric, irrational, mega-mogul image of Cowell. He's not some omnipotent God just mucking around in telly till he gets bored. He's a TV producer and a businessman: no more, no less. And he's not going to do something that would kill his reputation as a producer and fatally wound his business in one fell swoop.

And with that mini-rant, I think I'll withdraw from the thread till Monday, less I get pulled in to the usual Who and XF back-and-forth. Looking forward to seeing the Paralympic Closing Ceremony numbers then!

Absolutely 100% agree.

X Factor is produced all over the world and in most cases, isn't the #1 show in the country. For the first 4 years here, X Factor wasn't even the #1 show on Saturday night let alone of the week.

The only way Simon Cowell pulls X Factor off the air is if it makes business sense for Syco. That means, somehow, ITV finding around 40 hours of extra content in their existing Syco commissions or in new ones. And this is an extremely unlikely scenario, at least in the forseeable future. People talk about a break - but I'd imagine Syco are well aware of what happened when a new show took the place of Pop Idol on a trial run in 2004...

I'm sure some people at Endemol are "colourful" characters like Cowell. I'm sure there are many egos at work. And they'd all far rather Big Brother was what it was in 2006. But it isn't and as a business, they've had to deal with that and make the most of it while developing new formats.

Also, whereas in the US Syco's hours are fairly evenly split between America's Got Talent and X Factor USA, that's not the case here. X Factor produces twice as many hours as BGT and is therefore particularly valuable to the UK wing of the company and Fremantle UK.

I'm not sure the comparison with the soaps is an entirely good one. Partly because the soaps (Coronation Street and EastEnders in particular) are institutions in the way that The X Factor isn't and also because the soaps airs all year around. So whilst its certainly true that the soaps have seen periods of highs and lows both in terms of ratings and media interest that's always going to be the case when you're producing at least 2 hours a week 52 weeks of the year. It simply isn't possible to sustain highs on that kind of schedule. In contrast The X Factor is a relatively limited run that tends to have a large concentration of PR effort, time and money devoted to it.

Equally its always easy to envision a scenario in which the soaps can get people and the press interested again. There's always a big sensationalist storyline that will grab people's attention for better or for worse and there's been no sign that, that bag of tricks is empty or proving ineffective. Whereas with The X Factor we're seeing signs this year (and last) that the bag of tricks is empty and isn't working. The controversies and the like and are still there its just that people don't appear to be interested any more. It would be somewhat comparable to one of the soaps killing off a major character and nobody noticing.


They do however still have the ability to get people talking and to grab the attention in a way that no other show on television can. For example for all the talk of a ratings crisis and a creative downturn at EastEnders over the past few years the show has still managed to stir up amazing amounts of coverage, conversation and some incredibly impressive ratings to boot. All of which suggests that as and when they find a storyline on par with things like the Richard Hilman plot or the Who Shot Phil story people will get involved.


Its an interesting one.

I can see the argument for why Cowell would want to take the show off air before it completely runs out of steam. It protects the format for an eventual revival a few years down the line which is unlikely to happen if you run it into the ground now. There's a reason Sky were the only channel interested in a revival of Gladiators. The problem, as you mention, is that pulling the show before you've run it into the ground costs SyCo a huge amount of money over in the here and now. Its a difficult balancing act to manage.

My assumption remains that until SyCo has more than Britain's Got Talent and The X Factor up and running in the UK we're unlikely to see them pull the plug on either show. And ITV can't pull the plug on them until they're confident they have something that can replace them which they seem to be a long way off of. Had Red or Black been a hit then the landscape of SyCo would be different and I could seem them being a little more receptive to the idea of ending The X Factor especially if they had other formats on the horizon. The problem is that Red or Black wasn't a hit and they don't appear to have anything else on the horizon. The only thing I can remember hearing anything about is that terrible The X Factor for DJ's.

I think what's striking about Cowell is that he's managed to build this incredible reputation within the industry off the back of two formats, admittedly two globally successful formats, despite the fact that literally everything else he's touched has been a disaster. And arguably the two formats he does have are just variants on other successful shows anyway. Its a peculiar turn of events.

Also I'd caution against this line of thinking that as The X Factor airs in other markets where it isn't number 1 that doesn't matter. As far as I can tell Cowell has only ever been particularly invested in the UK and US versions of the show and it certainly easy to see that for him those are the two crown jewels so how the show is doing here is going to be more important to him than how it does in Australia or Germany. Does anyone really believe he micro-manages either of those versions? Could he even name the judges on them? Also there's a difference between not being number 1 and viewing figures plummeting. If a show has never been an incredible out of the park success it doesn't matter that its not now but when it has been it does matter.

Plus if The X Factor isn't getting 12+ million viewers any more ITV aren't going to want to keep paying as much for it as they do. It wouldn't make economic sense for them. As the license fee drops its easier to see SyCo pulling the plug because it becomes easier to justify it.

How did dallas do on friday?

JENNY CUMMINS

ITV1's @TheXfactor peaked with 9.4m, averaging 8.2m - the highest rating programme on TV last night (Inc+1)

X Factor averaged 7.7m excluding +1 last night and peaked under 9m according to CodRob on twitter.

It gets worse! Tonight will be horrific...

Not that I'm surprised - nobody seems to care these days. Perhaps an improved show last night will help but I'm not holding my breath. This is a show that for years courted the press, whipped up hysteria and dominated the headlines, for it's downfall to stem from apathy is the ultimate irony really.

Not a good peak, again. Guessing that viewing was down across the board due to the weather, but still.

5.5m for Doctor Who.


To be fair it was broadly the same as last week and viewing was probably down a bit (Doctor Who lost nearly a million) but they'll have wanted to see improvement. They might just have to sit tight and focus on making the best show possible, and just hope that a good show, the start of the Sunday editions (after tonight) and Cheryl's cameo give them a bit of a lift. I don't think there's much more they can do.

JENNY CUMMINS
The Xtra Factor on ITV2 drew its highest audience yet this series - 1.2m, peak of 1.3m (inc+1)

That's good. Interesting that whilst the main show is well down, Xtra Factor seems in line with last year.

wooo glad Xtra is still going well

XFactor is finished. Less than 8million is very poor. It has become like Big Brother of 5 years ago, people are over it and have moved on. People arent falling for all the publicity stunts, Wagner-like joke contestants, grandfather-died sob stories, "judges hate each other", "Cowell/Cole is coming back to save the day" articles anymore. The GBP just dont care and ratings wont be going up this series apart from the final.

A show averaging 8.2m isn't finished, regardless of where it was last year or the year before.

Bit of a sneaky stat tho... The raw figure is of course great for the show but it was always going to be the highest rated so far. For the past three shows there's been a 15 minute gap between X Factor and Xtra Factor, that was dropped last night so could pick up more casual viewers who don't disappear in that 15 minute window.

The show has finished becoming what Cowell and Itv want it to be - which is a cultural phenomenon. It is now just a TV show with quite a lot of viewers but no longer a ratings sensation.

Ouch, that is low even though there was a lot more singing shown and less of the TOWIE rubbish.

It'll be even lower tonight but I hope to be proven wrong (unlikely however).

Is it up against anything next week?

Besides, the weather seems to be getting worse over the next week so that should have an impact on it. From next week onwards, I'll be surprised if it doesn't regularly pull in an average of at least 10 million.

Yeah that's a valid point. It's still very valuable to both parties even in its current state though so it won't be going anywhere (although I wonder if ITV will try and get a reduction on how much they're paying for it when the contract comes up for renewal).

An interesting question is what affect will this have on BGT? Will it continue to get the c10m it got this year or will it suffer from association with XF and the Cowell brand and take a dip too?

that's just nonsense...you're really suggesting it won't increase during the live shows on dark, cold autumn nights? It's undoubtedly lower right now, but it's far from finished.

The total audience available is bigger on Sundays and it has got double Corrie as a lead in. It all depends on how the Paralympics closing ceremony performs imo.

I suppose it doesn't rally matter at all. However the standards off mental arithmetic these days is so poor I presume everybody has to use a calculator. I'm starting to sound like a maths teacher!

Ken