What will be more concerning to Fox than the year-on-year drop is the comparison to Wednesday's numbers. In the 8PM hour on Wednesday night The X Factor had a household of 6.1 and got a 2.7 in the demo. That its only up three tenths on Wednesday 8PM in the household numbers despite facing (on the surface at least) substantially weaker broadcast competition is not good. It also suggests that it may very well struggle to break a 3 in the demo which would be disastrous and would leave the door open for it to get crushed by CBS in a couple of weeks.

Yeah, that is possible. TXF always got beaten by ABC's Modern Family last year on Wednesdays and it will happen again this year. Imagine Suburgatory having a great retention and beating TXF (which will only happen in a miracle). CBS's Criminal Minds (Wed 9-10pm) remains one of the most consistent shows as they only dropped in single digits each season-by-season (only "big" decrease was in 2007-08 season with -15%, that was the writer's strike season). Their 18-49 was constantly around 3.5 area. Their seven season run so far is quite impressive (http://www.spottedratings.com/2010/0...nal-minds.html). If TXF falls further (which is likely now), Criminal Minds might just overtake. That is, if the fans of the show will keep tuning in, despite Paget Brewster's departure for the second time. Can Survivor: Phillipines (Wed 8-9pm) challenge TXF as well?

If Shameless wasn't making money would they not be drastically reducing the order down from 15 episodes a year? It has enough episodes to enter syndication, that is probably what's keeping it alive. Syndication and international sales will probably allow Company Pictures to reduce the price to something workable...

And C4's schedule is irrelevant.

And just to hammer that home: IT'S IRRELEVANT WOULD THEY REALLY BE STUPID ENOUGH TO LAUNCH A RECURRING DRAMA AT THE SAME TIME AS EVERY OTHER CHANNEL?


I see a chip on one's shoulder and to be honest you kind of overruled your own point.... "C4 SHOULDN'T BE COPYING OTHERS... UNLESS IT'S INTELLIGENT"

Alan Carr didn't copy Graham Norton, that's the basic format of every chat show in existence....
Panel Shows - Again, pretty generic format anyway

Given you list Stewart Lee and Grandma's House as shows they should be copying, I'm going to ignore your opinions on comedy, because they're a) irrelevant, b) personal (and c) disagreeable).

I think C4 are focusing on shows they do well at. They do well at sitcoms, so they put a lot of money into that. They do well at lifestyle, so they put money into that. They're not as good at drama so they do less of it, but they still have Top Boy, Black Mirror and This Is England. If we include imported dramas, their slate becomes considerably bigger and better... Homeland, Southland, The Closer, Labyrinth (upcoming Ridley Scott mini-series), Revenge, Shameless US, Heartland, Being Erica, Franklin & Bash and more...

"C4 should be making the good popular and the popular good. It doesn't seem to be doing that, it's relying on a handful of old shows and all their new shows are doing nothing you couldn't see on another channel."

Viewers don't want original they want stuff they know and like. Whingey people on forums want original. And ultimately C4's primary concern to avoid making a loss, rather than be original. Which is correct because there would be outrage if the state had to bail C4 out...

I have no idea what motivates Channel 4 at this stage.

I'm not convinced by the argument that Shameless is making them money and I'm certainly not convinced that its making them enough money to continue to justify continued investment in and its continued presence on the schedule. I also don't believe that Channel 4 should be in the business of propping up Shameless for Company Pictures or any other drama for any other production company. Particularly not when they're in such poor condition commercially and creatively. Its one thing to do this kind of thing when Shameless would be a weak spot on an otherwise strong schedule its another thing to do in the position Channel 4 are currently in.


Out of interest how is Channel 4's schedule irrelevant in a discussion about what kind of shows Channel 4 should or shouldn't be making and what their overall goals should be? Your contention was that Channel 4 is stuck in a lose-lose situation between making commercial content and PSB content and that regardless of which one they make they'll face criticism. Either because they're losing money or not making money in the 'right way' (admittedly I'm paraphrasing here). My contention was that actually that's not the issue. The issue is that Shameless has become the prime example of how stuck in the mud and risk averse Channel 4 have become. They stick with it because they're terrified of trying to launch new returnable drama and that's the same reason their schedule is now just a mix of ageing and derivative takes on exactly the same idea. They're terrified of trying anything new. And this isn't isolated to prime time either.

Channel 4 don't have to make worthy PSB shows. That's not what people are asking them to do. What people are asking them to do is something different. To break from the exact same formula they've had for far too long now and is leading to ever diminishing returns. It doesn't even have to be ground breakingly original. Just different from the sea of crap they currently air.


Yes.

The fact that every other channel is launching drama is exactly why Channel 4 should be doing it as well. The audience expects new returnable drama at this time of year and the audience is there for it. This idea that Channel 4 can't possibly hope to compete with the other channels on this is nonsense. Channel 5 managed to launch Dallas successfully, you're telling me Channel 4 can't do the same with a new drama? Or a new comedy? And you're telling me they can't do the same when they've had the launch pad/promotional platform of the Paralympic games from which to do it? More over no one is suggesting they have to launch these shows at 9PM opposite the BBC and ITV dramas. Why not breathe some much needed life into the 10PM slots?


How many of the shows you listed off there actually air on Channel 4 outside of late night repeat slots? I count one. Although I don't know where they're putting Labyrinth but I'd assume that'll be on the main channel so that takes us up to two. Not exactly an amazing list. Even less amazing when only one of those is returnable.

And what sitcoms are Channel 4 investing in? They've got Derek (which was more comedy drama than sitcom) and Fresh Meat (again comedy drama rather than a sitcom) but I can't remember anything else. Have they announced any pick-ups from their comedy fortnight thing? You also have to wonder how much more lifestyle strands any channel could need. There will be three shows on Channel 4 next week that are all property design/redesign shows and then there's Location, Location, Location also in the property mix. You don't think perhaps this is ridiculous overkill? You don't think its insanity that they not only scheduled all of these shows on the same week but that they commissioned them all in the first place?

Very bad for Xf Us again. I think in America, people are getting tired of the music talent shows and XF was one music show too far. Idol and Voice might not be rating as well as they used to but they still get good ratings but Xf Us hasnt worked out from day one. Itv might be hoping XF us continues to drop in ratings so that FOX cancels it and Cowell can go back to the Uk version next year.

Breaking: Night 2 X FACTOR: 3.1/10 (vs. 4.4/12 last year); GLEE 3.3/9 (vs. 4.0/11 on Tues last year; tied with BONES in same Thurs 9pm slot last year)

That's particularly grim for the second Emmerdale, not least because I think I'm correct in saying they are teeing up storylines that will run into the much-publicised live episode ...

I'm not in the slightest bit surprised about Bletchley: it's had a lot of good word of mouth and is basically Murder, She Wrote in a different guise - so easily accessible. I predict ratings will continue to increase and it will return for another run next year ... provided they can get the cast.

To clarify throughout today's posts I was reffering to C4 the network, not C4 the channel...

Did we really need an essay? And I wasn't really discussing the type of shows C4's should be making as a network, I was saying that it was a money spinner, the kind of show that allowed C4 to run at a profit. The rest was irrelevant and somewhere I did not want the discussion to go, because I've had this discussion so many times before and I can't be bothered to keep reading posts.

I will however say this; everyone seems to think that C4 (and every other channel) exists only to serve them. Just because you don't like a lot of the shows on C4 doesn't mean other people hate them as well. Evidently people like this "repetitive crap" otherwise it wouldn't be on, and it wouldn't be making them money. Basic rule of business, if it isn't making money change it so it is, I can categorically say that if Shameless was in such a dire commercial position as you believe Jay Hunt would have dropped in favor of "Extreme House Hunting" or "Hugh Furnley-Whitingstall bitches at you, yet again..."

Marginal improvement for X Factor then, 15% up from the same hour on Wednesday but about 18% lower than the same hour last year and still a good few tenths off where it should be. Also about 20% lower than The Voice's second episode on Tuesday.

Looks like XF and AGT have again taken lumps out of each other. Slow start for Glee as well but I guess it could have been far worse if it had been left at 8pm on Tuesday.

Next week will be a big one for XF as on Wednesday they'll have their best chance of posting a good number. Survivor and the Big Brother final are on but they should have less overlap than The Voice and AGT and they'll have to get used to competing with Survivor anyway. Thursday is an even clearer night with just the NBC comedies returning. I think they should be looking for some kind of week on week growth on both nights.

The AGT finale only averaged a 2.5, which is down 31% year on year. The half hours were 1.8/2.1/2.7/3.4 which shows how XF clearly took a lump out of it (AGT probably dented XF a bit too) but even so that first hour is very low. It was comfortably the lowest ever finale (previous finales - 2006: 3.5, 2007: 4.2, 2008: 3.3, 2009: 3.5, 2010: 3.9, 2011: 3.6) and even the 9pm hour underperformed. It has really suffered this year and it'll be interesting to see what NBC do with it next year (a consistent slot and cutting back on the repeats would be a good start).

XF could have been worse but they won't be thrilled with it. Like C14E said it should be looking to improve next week (Syco's other show AGT has improved in week 2 a few times in the past so it isn't unheard of). A 3.7 or so on Wednesday and 3.4 on Thursday in week 2 would brighten the picture quite a bit for them.

EDIT: Looks like AGT actually averaged a 2.4 which is even worse. Those half hours must be a bit off then.

Here's a look at how the four main broadcasters did in the BARB Monthly Shares for August 2012:

BBC
BBC1: 26.0% (August 2011: 20.2%), BBC2: 6.0% (6.1%), BBC3: 3.0% (1.5%), BBC4: 0.7% (0.7%), BBC HD: 0.3% (0.2%), BBC News: 0.9% (1.7%), BBC RB: 0.2% (0.1%), BBC Olympics: 1.6% (n/a), CBBC: 0.7% (1.0%), CBeebies: 1.1% (1.4%)
--> Total: 40.5% (August 2011: 32.9%)

ITV
ITV1: 11.3% (14.2%), ITV2: 2.5% (2.8%), ITV3: 2.2% (2.1%), ITV4: 1.0% (1.1%), CITV: 0.4% (0.4%)
--> Total: 17.4% (August 2011: 20.6%)

Channel 4
C4: 6.1% (6.3%), E4: 1.9% (1.8%), Film4: 1.6% (1.7%), More4: 1.2% (1.3%), 4Music: 0.3% (0.4%), 4Seven: 0.3% (n/a)
--> Total: 11.4% (August 2011: 11.5%)

Channel 5
C5: 4.0% (4.7%), C5+1: 0.3% (n/a), 5*: 0.5% (0.5%), 5USA: 0.9% (0.8%)
--> Total: 5.7% (August 2011: 6.3%)

Thanks to the Olympic Games, the BBC (+23%) was the only broadcaster to increase their market share year on year. The BBC managed to record their best monthly family share since August 2004 (41.3%) in the month when the Athens Olympic Games were being shown. The other broadcasters slipped year-on-year: Channel 4 (-1%), Channel 5 (-10%), ITV (-16%). ITV took the biggest knock out of the commercial networks, posting its biggest monthly y-o-y decline since at least 2004.

In terms of terrestrial channels, BBC One (+29%) experienced a big boost thanks to the London Games. It was BBC One's best monthly share since August 2004 (27.5%). All other terrestrial channels were down: BBC2 (-2%), C4 (-3%), C5 (-15% or -9% inc +1), ITV1 (-20%). All things considered, C4 held up well under those difficult circumstances. ITV1 had its worst ever month.

In terms of the multichannels, BBC3 doubled its share y-o-y, with lots of high ratings during the Olympic period when the channel was airing all-day. BBC News was down -47% due to a very strong month this time last year because of the London Riots. The children's channels also suffered, with both down over 20%. For ITV, ITV2 (-11%) slipped for the first time this year while ITV3 (+5%) made a slight improvement. Over to CH4, E4 (+6%) did well whilst Film4 (-6%) was down y-o-y for the first time since March 2009. In 4Seven's first full month, it picked up 0.3% share which is decent enough for what it is. For CH5, 5* remained flat while 5USA went down -19%.

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And here's a look at how the broadcasters have averaged for the first eight months of 2012 (January to August) vs. the same period last year:

BBC: 34.2% (Jan-August 2011: 33.5%)
ITV: 22.0% (22.6%)
CH4: 11.3% (11.7%)
CH5: 6.1% (6.0%)

Lots of changes since I last did this update. Up till July 2012, the BBC had slipped the 2nd most out of the four major broadcasters. But with the Olympic effect, the BBC are now up +2.1% vs. the first 8 months of 2011 - the biggest growth in market share out of the four broadcasters. Channel 5 (+1.3%) has also managed to increase its total share so far this year. ITV (-2.4%) and CH4 (-3.2%) are down vs. 2011.

Thought it was a decent start for Glee, up on the finale last year, considering it was up against AGT. Beats X-Factor too.

The only problem with this being that its all now playing to ever diminishing returns. These brands and these concepts are now so over exposed that the audience is getting bored of them and not watching them in the numbers they were. I have no problem with Channel 4 making lifestyle shows nor do I have any problem with them making fly on the wall reality my problem is that they make far too much of both. I posted their schedule for next week to highlight the fact that there's a startling lack of variety or depth to the Channel 4 schedule.

By all means they should make shows that are popular and successful. As you rightly point out it would be destructive and self defeating for them not to but at the same time that tiny collection of shows shouldn't be all they make. We've seen time and time again as of late that Channel 4 is far to easily led down the road of squeezing all the immediate profit out of brands/shows and concepts rather than playing anything close to a long game. Look at how they've treated Million Pound Drop. That was a show that had the potential to be a big hit for them but they went ahead and shot themselves in the foot and overexposed it instantly. So rather than having a show they can air for several years with good returns they've got a show that's going to fizzle out after a couple.

Channel 4, like any broadcaster, needs variety. And they don't have it and they don't have it because they won't take the risk of commissioning anything new. So yes all these lifestyle shows and reality shows might turn a profit in the here and now but where will they be in a year or two? What happens when this bubble inevitably bursts? Channel 4's schedule is so amazingly dependent on these shows that they're going to be monumentally screwed.

Those aren't pretty numbers for Fox.

I hope ABC and CBS are sending NBC gift baskets or something because it would appear as if they've successfully kneecapped Fox on Wednesday and Thursday for the Fall right out of the gate. The test will be what kind of damage, if any, this has done to The Voice. And of course I suppose we might see X Factor shoot up next week. Although I think this week has been a pretty clear indicator that The X Factor can be taken down and taken down hard whilst The Voice has proven to be a little more resistant.

When it comes to Glee its hard to know what to make of that number. It was down on last season premiere but it was always going to be and it was up on last years finale but again I think it was always going to be (for various reasons). The test will be how it holds up. Presumably it'll be below a 3 in a couple of weeks (when CBS and ABC roll out) if it isn't already there next week. How far below a 3 is the real question. It'll have to do really badly not to at least pick up a short fifth season. It'll have 88 episodes at the end of this year and whilst that's technically enough to rake in the syndication bucks I suspect Fox will be happy enough to push it up to 100 at least.

I think you can treat all of Fox's current ratings with a pinch of salt. Fox have the Baseball postseason soon, and they will bombard everyone with adverts for their shows. I think 2 or 3 weeks after the baseball is when Fox will have settle down.

ITV1's Autumn scheduling is dictated by I'm A Celebrity.

As for the Corrie issue - I read recently that they are planning to introduce two new families soon and will be involving neighbouring streets in the soap more often. Maybe ITV are secretly planning to up Corrie to 6 episodes a week and restore the Thursday episode.

X Factor not looking too hot. Certainly not the Idol replacement Cowell might like it to be.

Quite simply I think the format/ideas have been surpassed by other formats/shows/producers in the last 2-3 years. Yes, building on its own ideas - but still better.

Its not even got the tough competition yet, and we saw with The Voice, its not very resilient.

Thanks rzt, much appreciated. Great to see you back on here!

It is because they are building a new set at Salford Quays. This has far more space than the confined set on Quay Street where the neighbouring streets just have to be murals on walls!

So they are creating a larger set amd using the new location to spread out the area a bit.

They are also building the houses, shops etc to full size. Those on the Quay Street set are noticably smaller than real life when you walk the cobbles.

BTW anyone know how the Dallas repeat did last night in irts new regular late night slot?

Channel 4 should have found a replacement for Shameless years ago and I know they've tried finding a returnable drama but overextending Shameless has quickened its decline. I hope that next series is the last if it continues to rate below 1m.

As for Glee, I wouldn't be surprised if they give it more one season although it has already has a cable syndication deal. It probably depends how it fares against the competition like Grey's, the NBC comedies and Person of Interest.

I wouldn't have thought it has any chance of surviving if the figures do not improve. First run drama on 4 should be aiming for 1.5m at the very least, so that's a woeful figure for last night's episode and alarm bells should be ringing.

Thanks for the analysis rzt. Shows how much of an effect the Olympics will have in the end of year shares for BBC, and probably Channel 4 when the September figures are released.

Ditto!

Our leader is back! Thanks the interesting post

They've already surpassed the 100 mark - they don't need to worry about more making more episodes to make up some mythical quota. It's aready sold very well internationally and by extending the series with weaker and weaker episodes they're only making it worse.

How long does America's Got Talent's contract run with NBC? I bet Simon Cowell wishes he could flog it to another channel and break his link with the network for good after how they managed to seriously harm The X Factor on arrival. Still, NBC's tactic will backfire eventually as they're over-exposing The Voice which will shorten it's overall run and they have little else as back up.

ITV1 may be looking at the figures with interest, though. If The X Factor collapses in the US Simon could well return to the UK version - talking of the UK version, if it doesn't see an increase this weekend then it has a serious problem.

As for the week so far; please can someone explain the point of ANOTHER hour long One Show on Wednesday's. I know this isn't the first but I've only spotted it now. Good Cop, Bletchley Circle and Mrs. Biggs did well to increase while Dallas didn't disgrace itself. The football increased due to the lack of sporting competition. One Born Every Minute looks a bit low.

Just while I think about it, does anyone else think ITV have missed a trick with Bletchley Circle? If they're going to base a drama on Bletchley they could have started with World War II and focused on the work completed there rather than another crime drama spin off. They've already got Foyle's War which will be crime-fighting in that era (maybe the war rather than post war but still...)