Originally Posted by rzt:
“Take Me Out's commercial value is about the same as a 6m-rated entertainment show with normal age skews, it's that valuable in terms of ad revenue. That's why even with mediocre overall figures, it was extended after the first series from 8 episodes to 14 episodes (and 60mins to 75mins) and now to about 20 episodes a year because it obviously delivers the kind of audience which advertisers want.
Having said that, it's concerning the show has dropped 1.5m (or 30%) compared to the previous series. I know it's against Strictly Come Dancing this time but neither TV Burp or even The Cube dropped that much in the ratings when against SCD. Another problem for ITV1 is that because it rates so poorly among viewers aged over 45 (and that was the case before even when not against SCD), it sort of helps BBC1 pick up a lot of older viewers and boost their numbers, not just for the opposing show but shows after that too due to inheriting bigger audiences. In an ideal world really, it'd be better to have a show getting the same kind of 16-34 numbers as TMO does but with a broader age skew, in turn picking up a decent number of older viewers as well. TV Burp was good at doing that - last Autumn it was getting about the same number. of 16-34s as TMO but an overall audience 1m bigger.
On another note Surprise Surprise started off quite well, even pulling in pretty good demos in 16-34s and HWWC. I think it'll hold up well over the series around the 4m mark as the first episode did what it says on the tin and a promising sign that around 19.20-19.30 its audience didn't tail off when SCD started. If it does hold up, I think they should look at bringing it back for Q2 Sundays and having two series a year.”
“Take Me Out's commercial value is about the same as a 6m-rated entertainment show with normal age skews, it's that valuable in terms of ad revenue. That's why even with mediocre overall figures, it was extended after the first series from 8 episodes to 14 episodes (and 60mins to 75mins) and now to about 20 episodes a year because it obviously delivers the kind of audience which advertisers want.
Having said that, it's concerning the show has dropped 1.5m (or 30%) compared to the previous series. I know it's against Strictly Come Dancing this time but neither TV Burp or even The Cube dropped that much in the ratings when against SCD. Another problem for ITV1 is that because it rates so poorly among viewers aged over 45 (and that was the case before even when not against SCD), it sort of helps BBC1 pick up a lot of older viewers and boost their numbers, not just for the opposing show but shows after that too due to inheriting bigger audiences. In an ideal world really, it'd be better to have a show getting the same kind of 16-34 numbers as TMO does but with a broader age skew, in turn picking up a decent number of older viewers as well. TV Burp was good at doing that - last Autumn it was getting about the same number. of 16-34s as TMO but an overall audience 1m bigger.
On another note Surprise Surprise started off quite well, even pulling in pretty good demos in 16-34s and HWWC. I think it'll hold up well over the series around the 4m mark as the first episode did what it says on the tin and a promising sign that around 19.20-19.30 its audience didn't tail off when SCD started. If it does hold up, I think they should look at bringing it back for Q2 Sundays and having two series a year.”
TMO is clearly a valuable show to ITV. It was clearly going to rate lower than TV Burp did last Autumn for several reasons: firstly - TMO is 75 mins whereas TV Burp was only 30 mins and therefore benefited more from the X Factor lead-out. Secondly TXF is rating lower this year therefore the shows leading into it (and airing after it) are benefiting less than in previous years. Also whereas TV Burp usually had a 3.5-4m lead-in from You've Been Framed, TMO has been dragged down by a c2m lead-in, meaning more viewers are tuning into the first half hour of SCD as ITV is much weaker and then sticking with SCD rather than watching TMO. Those three factors are probably knocking TMO by 0.5-1m compared with TV Burp last year. Last year TV Burp avergaed c4.5m against Strictly in the Autumn and then c5m away from Strictly in the Spring, so a c10% boost. Therefore as TMO is currently getting c3.5m against Strictly, and taking everything into account, I think TMO ill be looking at audiences of c4.5m early next year away from Strictly, which is down about 10% from what it was getting early this year. So a little bit of fatigue has probably set it, and whilst it is nothing major yet ITV need to avoid it getting worse like what happened to TV Burp.
Depending on what happens early next year with Saturday Night Takeaway, Prize Island and Dancing on Ice, and what happens to The Voice on BBC1, it might be worth moving the Winter/Spring run from January/February to April/May to run alongside BGT in 2014 so each series is more spread out. The downside there of course is that Q1 would lose a solid hit, but tbh a schedule along the lines of 18:45 - You've Been Framed, 19:15 - Saturday Night Takeaway, 20:30 - All Star Family Fortunes, 21:30 - Jonathan Ross would probably do alright-ish anyway. Obviously Takeaway couldn't run for 3 months due to Ant & Dec's BGT commitments though which is why I said it depends on Prize Island too, as if that does well enough they could run that in the 7pm hour in January/early February until SNT returned.If Prize Island flops it'd be more difficult for them, but I'd still look at doing it, and try some kind of fun Saturday night format presented by someone like Michael McIntyre in the Jan/Feb slot instead, as I think they're risking overexposing TMO by running two series back to back each year.
Surprise Surprise could quite easily do two series per year - my only concern would be that without XF after it I could see it skewing a bit older, and with BBC1 doing very well amongst older audiences on Sundays it could struggle. It'd probably be worth a try though. Like a few other shows, it could probably do pretty well on Wednesdays at 8pm with the Corrie lead-in, but we don't know what they've got planned for that slot next year yet (I'm assuming Food Glorious Food will go there but that isn't confirmed yet). SS definitely has the potential to be a decent rater for ITV though, which is a surprise (
) to me as I thought it'd bomb like Holding Out For A Hero.
