One of the issues with any X Factor related discussion on this thread is that it tends to be dominated by people who never really understood why the show was successful in the first place. Saying "I told you so" doesn't count for much if you've been telling us for 3 to 6 years now.
The joke acts, shock eliminations and fix theories are as old as X Factor. It makes no sense that the mere presence of those things would be the problem. What's more likely is that "we've seen it all before". I watched Saturdays show and it was good. The acts generally gave strong performances or provided some kind of TV purpose and it was fun (unless you're the DS minority that sits tearing their hair out over "real talent" and hates fun). But if there has been an issue with the show this year (and last) it's that knawing sense of doing it by the numbers. Here's the joke act... here's the "shock" elimination and so on, to the point that it would have been more surprising to send Rylan home earlier this series.
It reminds me of Big Brother in its later years. After all, when they've had Jade/Shilpa and 5,000 other big rows, how do you hype the next one? Once Michelle's toes curled in pleasure under the table in 2004, where do you go with the romance angle? After BB7, how can you have bigger characters without them being too much? You could relate similar questions to different areas of X Factor. And Big Brother is the only other show of the 21st Century so far to be as commercially valuable as X Factor. As "brands" and TV shows they're similar studies.
The numbers right now are, in a broader context, fine. Do 8.4m this time next year and all is well with the world. The problem as far as I can see is that the current trend suggests it won't do 8.4m this time next year. More likely to drop 20% and be under 7m. Same situation as Big Brother 9 - a 3.6m average so it seemed like there was room to fall next year. Except it collapsed early on and was cancelled mid series.
My favoured plan is a relatively clean break. Cowell returns but with a new show - no major changes, just an Idol-X Factor style transition. That's a really easy propostion for ITV to try and hype up. Start in November with pre-recorded stuff. Go live after Christmas. No "old faces" apart from Cowell. With the current situation, I don't even see this as a particularly big risk for anyone involved.
Christopher Maloney winning might actually complete the comparison. An embarrassment championed by the "head judge", he'd be X Factor's Michelle McManus although she was championed by Cowell with the specific intention of damaging Pop Idol. Then again, maybe Barlow wants to take the whole thing down with him and is doing it deliberately!
Right now, I think The X Factor brand might be a weight around the shows shoulders. Constant comparisons to years gone by from judges to contestants to ratings probably don't help.
Originally Posted by SamuelW:
“The 18-34 thing is just an excuse for its bad ratings. Itv would prefer a show getting 5million viewers with worse demos than 3million and slightly better 18-34. 18-34 are only quoted as an excuse if a show rates badly.”
Basically what you're saying here is that ITV would rather make less money but have an upper hand in debates on The Ratings Thread.
Originally Posted by Charnham:
“X-Factor USA seems to be a gamble that is not paying off for Simon Cowell.”
Not as well as he may have wanted, but it is paying off. RTL reported X Factor USA as a key reason for why their financial performance improved. If the show is worth of being singled out for a company the size of RTL, can you imagine what it's doing for Syco's bottom line? Then again, One Direction are probably making him more money at the moment than both versions of X Factor combined.