There have been plenty of failures but that has been the case since Pop Idol. Steve Brookstein is the only reject that likes to publicise his failure but he has been doing that since 2005 (in fact, he has been a bit quieter lately). In terms of genuine successes this is probably the peak for X Factor since it began. 2008, 2009 and 2010 all found triple platinum acts including the biggest breakout act in the world this year. 2011's winners look set to do well too.


What is the alternative? Even if BGT and XF were produced by two different companies, they'd still be in this situation. The format business is global and there isn't a show being made in Australia or Germany or the US which is just going to step in and get 10m and 3m 16-34's next year. Everyone is so desperate for that next big thing that they've all gone and bought this diving show because they don't want to miss out.

It's not like the BBC have churned out anything even close to the commercial value of X Factor in the past few years. The closest they got was probably buying The Voice. Lets say Strictly goes into freefall like Dancing With The Stars has. What do the BBC do? They'll be in the same position as ITV. Because there isn't anything sitting waiting for them that will deliver the same volume.

When people say that ITV have over relied on Simon Cowell, all they're saying is that ITV have relied on the biggest hits on television. It has been a pretty productive relationship for them since he first wandered in to pitch Pop Idol. The problem is that aside from the shows he has been involved in, there have been very few other big Saturday night series. It's like some people think ITV would have been better off never having the success in the first place so they don't have to live up to it now.

ITV's Freddie Starr? That's a stretch.

It won't be a scandal for ITV unless stories come out about what happened at some of the studios in the regions. LWT was quite the place according to Janet Street-Porter.

Not really. Look at his TV career:

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0823505/filmoyear

I've taken one of Rzt's demo breakdowns (w/e 7th October) from my broswer history.

Demo - SCD - XF
C4-15 - 08% - 13%
16-34 - 11% - 26%
35-44 - 13% - 18%
45-54 - 18% - 19%
55-64 - 17% - 13%
65&O - 34% - 11%

Housewives with children - X Factor had a 23.3 rating. Strictly had a 13.3.

I'm curious, Sam, how many grandparents do you think we have in this country? We have pension problems as it is with around 15% of the population over 65, we'd be mightily screwed if it was a third

The fact is that the X Factor breakdown is far more representative of the population as a whole than Strictly. It indicates that far more "families" watch X Factor than Strictly. Generally television skews old and doesn't cater for younger viewers. While we think of X Factor as a "young" show, I recall a median age of 39 being quoted which is in line with the UK as a whole.

X Factor's problem is that it is less popular this year among all viewers of all ages. If the 2m lost viewers were all aged 65+ then it wouldn't matter. But they are down across the board.

Am I right in thinking that DWTS does two series per year? If so that seems like overkill and it is no wonder it is starting to lose its sparkle in that case.

SCD is important to BBC1 but not as important as XF is to ITV. BBC1 has more middling shows that while not breakout hits still rate decently - also if they lost SCD they would not be taking a hit financially.

So if he voted Labour, he would be Ok then. Maybe some people can't get a working class man voting Tory, well at least it's better than him being a hypocrite like John Lennon.,

Street-Porter made this claim on Question Time but refused to name names or go into any specific details of any alleged activities at the LWT studios.

The X Factor can't keep slipping - it's getting ridiculous now. Saying that, it's 'only' down 0.5m down from the launch (exc. +1) whereas by this point last year there was a gap of 1.2m (exc. +1) between the two stages. I have the feeling that had this series followed series 7 it would have held up slightly better - for me, last night's show was the strongest live episode for a while but the damage has been done. It's never going to regain the heights of 2010 but if it can either stabilise quickly around the 8m mark it's still a decent show to have around; especially for the demos.

As for replacements - firstly, as C14E says, if Strictly's ratings start to deteriorate what has BBC One got as back up? Though saying that BBC One has two things on it's side; a better slate of medium rating shows and a guaranteed income. If Strictly dies they could probably put together a night of 4-5m programming. I'm not sure if ITV1 could do this.

Secondly, what would ITV1 do if The X Factor crashed completely? For me, they have three options:

1) Move Britain's Got Talent to the autumn but risk losing Simon Cowell as a judge and Ant and Dec as presenters.
2) Bring back Idol but would that look tired itself after years of The X Factor and the introduction of The Voice?
3) Find another show to fill the gap but there's no guarantee it'll be the 'next big thing' and could rate worse than The X Factor; look at how many shows they've tried which have failed over recent years.

On BBC One, they are sailing high like they have for much of the year with Strictly Come Dancing rating very well indeed.

Nailed on to inherit the Downton slot, what better way to launch your big new period drama than in the slot immediately vacated by your existing one. They could have worked Celeb round that.

They are either frit that it isn't very good, more concerned that TXF desperately needs the Celeb back up on Saturday and Sunday, or The Paradise has stolen the thunder and they don't want Selfridges to air whilst Paradise is still on screen. Or a combination of these.

I do think the Paradise factor is important, and if so, it's a rare scheduling masterclass from the bumbling BSI.

No I think its a risky move for anyone like Gary barlow to link the way he did during the last election.Nodding away at Camerons speeches then just before this series launches his name is linked to the whole Tax thing.

IMHO they needed a brand new panel genuine change.Cowell got nervous about the voice but when that series fizzled all the massive changes fizzled also.Just having one new judge and acts that have been linked to management groups hasnt worked.

Still from monday/midweek you get these stories the latest one Cowell is thinking about putting Mrs O.and Dannii back for next year...

Fair points. What do you think should be the strategy Itv takes going forward? Keep running XFactor in the Autumn year after year and leave it until ratings go below 5m or move it to another time of year or cancel it in a couple of years and start afresh with something else?

I had a Radio Times subscriber monthly supplement for October, and it was down to start that month. I'd guess (it was meant to be) Wednesdays at 9pm

I believe this is true and it was changed at the last minute. They then brought DCI Banks forward from 2013.

ITV's biggest error IMO is that they haven't used The X Factor to give anything a leg up. The auditions/bootcamp/judges houses could have aired, say 7.30-8.30 allowing another light entertainment show to follow on from it with (even now) an 8m lead in and opposite a lottery quiz and over exposed Casualty on BBC One.

Obviously it's much harder for ITV1 to do this once the lives start, partly due to the live show length and partly because they can't start it any earlier because it'd have a damaging clash with Strictly Come Dancing. But they should have been taking advantage of that lead in when they had it. It's the same with Britain's Got Talent and Dancing On Ice - it's all about maximising the night rather than taking risks which would benefit the broadcaster in the future. The Dancing on Ice/Wild at Heart combination was tired before this year's downfall; it's just the BBC didn't have a big hit show to fire against it until then (Cranford and Lark Rise rated well but not to the level of Call The Midwife).

Thanks for that gslam.


That is quite a turnaround from a few years ago.

Yes but he's not really a big name ITV star associated with the network in the same way as Benny Hill, Cannon & Ball or Tommy Cooper. Three series of Who Do You Do, one series of Freddie Starr's Variety Madhouse which he left and they gave to Russ Abbot, the 80's Freddie Starr Show for Central that didn't exactly set the ratings alight. This is a stretch.

Starr is more famous for being a performer than an ITV performer with guest appearances on shows. I doubt many could name his ITV shows off the top of their heads like I could without looking at IMDB. He was notoriously difficult to work with. Rarely did more than one series of anything and never really cracked TV with his own show as it wasn't really suited to TV more like theatres and clubs.

He isn't much of an ITV name at all.

But with Take Me Out and The X Factor delivering large numbers of advertiser coveted 18-49 year olds that must count for something. Of course estimates get revised downwards when the targets aren't reached.

Mr Selfridge was penciled in for a start this year but moving to January will be better for it. Less crowded.

The X Factor UK 2012
Overnights excluding +1; full slot average

18/08/12: 8.1m (39.4%)
26/08/12: 8.4m (36.1%)
02/09/12: 8.2m (35.0%)
08/09/12: 7.7m (33.9%)
09/09/12: 7.4m
15/09/12: 8.6m
16/09/12: 9.3m (36.4%)
22/09/12: Unknown
23/09/12: Unknown
29/09/12: 8.3m (35.9%)
30/09/12: 9.5m (35.4%)
06/10/12: 8.7m (33.9%)
07/10/12: 9.4m (31.9%)
13/10/12: 8.7m (36.2%)
14/10/12: 9.4m (35.3%)
20/10/12: 8.2m (34.8%)
21/10/12: 9.3m (34.7%)
27/10/12: 8.1m (34.8%)
28/10/12: 8.9m (33.6%)
03/11/12: 7.6m (32.3%)

The results show seems to rate between 0.7m and 0.9m higher than the live show (exc. +1) so I would expect a figure of 8.3m-8.5m tonight.

18-49 isn't a traded audience - 16-34s is the key group. X-Factor & Take Me Out are still strong programmes but if X-Factor did 20 16-34 ratings last year and only 15 this year that is a problem.

On top of that X-Factor is such a big show that ITV can often charge a premium to access it, that's going to be more of a struggle this year and going forward.

While this has been the best XF for a few years, I like the fact they're using singer songwriters, the ratings slip must be raising a few questions. However, as has been pointed out, what can ITV put in its place that can deliver 8-9 million viewers? Also the millions made from the show pays for the Champions League, something I was keen to inform a football fan of last night. No other ITV Saturday show has caused so much media attention and made so much money for years.

On Saturday 6 November 2010, Merlin had 5.60m, so last night's episode was down -340k on that, but the share was identical (22.1%). In 2010 Merlin started 35 minutes earlier, at 19:40, when there was a higher available audience, presumably because many hadn't yet gone off to bonfire parties. Also, Strictly delivered a higher lead-in that year (10.26m average, 300k higher than last night - share of 44.0% versus 43.7% this year.)

I'll grant you though that The X Factor is much weaker competition than in 2010: its average was lower by -4.73m / -4.37m (exc / inc +1) , so perhaps Merlin should be getting a bit more - it almost fully clashed with TXF both last night and in 2010.

The main problem for BBC One and ITV1/2 are what happens if SCD and TXF start to tank. While I think both shows have a few years left in them, there does need to be a decent replacement. Pop Idol is largely forgotten now and reviving it would be a waste of time and not much else LE wise would work on BBC One. Indeed all the LE ratings juggernauts are getting on now and suppose they all start to flop at the same time. Not that I want this to happen as SCD, BGT, DOI and IAC deliver good ratings.
Also IAC should get a medal for being a real survivor. The celebs on location style of reality largely died out in the late noughties, but this show proves the opposite by rating well.

The problem with Barlow is not his politics but his ability to suck the fun out of any room. A dull monotonous man with a voice too match.

Cowell went after Noel Gallagher apparently, now he would be an incredible signing. Insults, wit, and credibility all in one he'd wind up Walsh and any other pop star on the panel. Offer him more cash, even I'd watch it then. Jarvis Cocker would work too.

Cole will inevitably be back soon, that'll help, and an American pop star with a personality too, perhaps Pink or very left-field, Taylor Momsen.

Needs major surgery because the last think he wants is the brand looking like a failure.

Interesting, thanks for posting those. Could you list the peaks aswell (exc +1)?