Originally Posted by Fudd:
“And yet, outside the soaps, Downton Abbey, Doc Martin and possibly I'm A Celebrity... it'll still be the highest rating show on ITV1 which says it all. Not many shows can take 20% declines over three series and still say that.”
This is true. But obviously when ITV are considering a potential season 11 then they'll be building in expectations of a further drop if it has gone three years in a row down 20% (and that'd have season 11 at under 6m). Cowell and Syco will be aware of this, particularly as his Sony deal is up and he can sell his 50% share next year. That means they need to do what they can to guarantee X Factor being able to secure a multi-year renewal into 2014 and beyond.
Their options are...
1) "Rebrand" - keep making what is effectively X Factor but with some key format changes (like Pop Idol > X Factor) and do it under a new name.
2) "Refresh" - keeping the same brand, make changes to the format. What's vitally important here is to communicate those changes. BGT didn't do much different this year but they really pushed the idea that the show was stepping up its game and it seemed to work. X Factor does need to make big changes and it also needs to communicate this to get viewers back.
3) Either 1 or 2 + bring back Simon Cowell. In scenario one, it gives a new brand a positive link to the glory years of X Factor signalling change but with a familiar face and all the hype and press he'll bring with it. In scenario two, it's a bit like how his return to BGT sent a message to the public and also did seem to improve things on screen.
The third scenario only happens if ITV pass the ball back to Syco. That means agreeing to can Barlow and to go with a scheduling shift. They can get X Factor on air in the key ad period - if they film pre-recorded episodes in September then they could air in November/December with live shows in January/February. The problem there is the knock-on effect on their other two talent formats in the first half of the year. Until recently I'd have thought there was no chance ITV would make such a shift but it's getting to the stage where they might have to. Also, it opens up a peaktime slot in September/October for a new format whether that's from ITV Studios, Syco or another indie.