Afternoon, Roscoe, I'll go for 10.5 million for the opening night of IAC and I think the series will settle around 8 million.

You say 10m as if its hard to get but last years IaC launched with 11.5m. So anything less than 11m tonight will be a disappointment for Itv, taking into account the Nadine Dorress press coverage and big promo campaign.

Afternoon Glenn. Yeah I think that's a good prediction. The last series averaged 8.5m (inc +1: 8.9m).


So if it doesn't make 11m it will be a disappointment? How exactly? Last year it launched with 11.5m (inc +1: 11.8m), but it had a huge lead-in from TXF. The ratings inheritance will be much lower tonight hence why it won't match last year. Also last year was the highest IAC launch ever! And a show in its 12th series to launch with a 10m+ overnight is a huge achievement on any scale. Sorry, SamuelW - but I couldn't disagree more with your comment.

Slight rewriting of history there, these shows didn't come after the Premiership.

Popstars had finished it's first series nearly 6 months before The Premiership debuted and even Pop Idol was on air when The Premiership was still in primetime.

IAC will do well. It always amazes me how hell it does because it always seems so samey and stale to me! What do I know.

I'm not a fan off the show but it does an extremely good job for them so lets hope it does well for them.

Good to see trailers for the next two big dramas on BBC One both I shall be watching.

Ken

I didn't realise last years was its best ever launch. But that sort of disproves your theory that a lower x factor lead in will definitely damage IAC because last years XFactor rated worse than 2009 and 2010. I think it should still get at least 10.5m tonight because there wasn't as much buzz before last years series.

But it was similar - whereas this year TXF is down massively.

Looking through my research, according to the Some Mothers Do Ave Em, this show attracted 25.6 million viewers on Christmas Day in 1975. This was also the Christmas when half the population were supposed to have watched Morecambe and Wise, who were then at their creative peak.

I thought last years XFactor was down a couple million from the year before? Just like this year is down a couple of million viewers.

Yeah it was down. The point is you were saying if it doesn't make 11m it will be a disappointment for ITV. I honestly don't think thats the case. Any rating over 10m will be a success. I don't think anyone is expecting it to repeat last years record high!

Here we go again, setting high targets so if it falls short you can run off to your other little thread and crow on about ITV being in crisis.

Even if it does get 11.5m, it will now be seen as 'just ok' :yawn:

Anything over 5 million can be classed as a success these days. I'm settling on an average of 8 million, which I still think as a massive achievement these days.
IAC, while I don't watch it any more, survives mostly on the Ant and Dec factor as without them, I think it would flounder as the reality element is old.

Yeah no doubt it will get something like 10.5m and tomorrow morning everyone will be saying IAC's dead and getting axed etc.

The consolidated ratings for X Factor (excluding +1) on IAC launch night:

2011 - 13.26m
2010 - 15.74m
2009 - 15.02m

And for IAC (also excluding +1)

2011 - 12.46m
2010 - 12.16m
2009 - 10.5m

I'm also of the opinion that IAC's figures tonight will be hindered by the much lower likely lead-in fro X Factor. It'll be another reason for Cowell to sulk, though, if IAC has the higher rating.

No, three of the five Saturday auditions episodes were between -2.5m and -2.9m down on 2011 (inc +1), compared to about -2.4m down for last night.

It is, however, the worst year-on-year drop for any live Saturday show so far, in raw millions and % terms (it was down -22.5%).

However, as already mentioned, we may see an uplift in TXF's ratings to account for the early finish.


SCD last night: 10.4m (42.6%) (timeslot: 18:30-20:05)
Saturday 5 November 2011 [equivalent stage of series]: 9.21m (42.1%) (18:25-19:55)
Saturday 12 November 2011 [same week in the year]: 10.26m (40.7%) (18:55-20:20)

So on any measure it is UP year-on-year.

Oh here he goes again.

Autumn ratings have been really flat, TV doesn't seem to have recovered since the Olympics. Soaps are static, dramas are flopping, XF has crashed & BBC One has a trio of shows on Thurs, Fri & Sun in the 9pm hour getting about 2.5m

Any show getting north of 10m these days is performing phenomenally well in this fragmented world of TV.

Not for all programmes. 5 million would be considered pretty poor for Strictly, X Factor, Dancing On Ice, I'm A Celebrity, Britain's Got Talent, Downton, Doc Martin, New Tricks, Corrie, Eastenders and Emmerdale-during-Winter-months, The soaps can get away with an occasional 5m under exceptional circumstances but if that was their regular rating then questions would be asked.

I'm a Celebrity has its own standards. So even if it got 6million, which is much higher than 2.5m some of those shows got, it would be bad for the show. Iac has rated over 11m last 2 series on launch night so going below 10m would be quite a sharp drop, taking into account that Downton abbey the last few weeks has been rating as well as ever with the lowest x factor lead ins its ever had and that BBC1 are probably showing their worst ever rated show against an Iac launch.

Get a bit of perspectve please.

Talk about getting the excuses in early.........

And to think just 2 short years ago you were spinning the rating for the SCD final (13M in the overnights) as disappointing. How times change .....

And the tv world is not that much more fragmented than last year when I'm a celeb had 11.5m. It doesn't even have Garrow's law as opposition this year.
As you point out BBC 1 is only getting 2.5m in the slot so surely I'm a Celeb will grow further tonight?

But for a ten year old reality show with a dated format, 8-10 million is amazing. IAC really defies the odds, which I find admirable.Also it has an older following than most reality shows and really does tick the right boxes.l

I think that's about a third of the ratings it was getting last year. Even had they paired it up with Peep Show giving them an hour-long block it would have worked better - though not head to head with Misfits.

not sure if the ratings are over nights, or officals

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_a..._11%29#Ratings

However 10 million would be nice for Im a Celeb..., but I cant see it getting it.

Any opinions on C4s, Full English?

It will look embarassing if IAC beats TXF tonight. However, what to me has been the best series of TXF for 5 years, is down by 2 million this year. I think for next year ITV1 need to cut the running time and the endless breaks, 90 90

I think those figures are supposed to be the overnights excluding +1 - however, most of those are wrong anyway.