I meant this to be short, but I somehow ended up writing an accidental and lengthy post. If you can’t be bothered to read the equivalent of an essay, just read the 1st paragraph or as far as the 3rd, which altogether are about 200 words and I've bolded.

Usually, sometime between week 3-5, the winner is established by certain comments that the judges make that talk about how "amazing their performance" was, and how it was "the performance of the series!" and they could "see them [the act] in the final," and usually, that act they give these comments or make these claims about either come runner-up or win it. Gary said that about James Arthur, so I think he is their "chosen one" to win." Also, James Arthur has had very good judges comments through-out. There will definitely be criticism, like there always is, but I reckon he is the one they will P.R-machine to the final via the comments.

Other winning contestants that exemplify what I'm talking about: Alexandra Burke - From the week 3 "Candyman" performance, the judges only praised her from then on; pretty much same thing with Matt Cardle from week 5; and with Joe McElderry, in week 3, Louis tipped him as "going all the way to the final". With Year 8, in week 5, Gary Barlow got up and said to Marcus Collins "That was the performance of the series", which was the exact same thing he did and said to James Arthur last week, and now he's said he's going straight to the final.

Marcus might not have won it, but did come runner up, so I think this method at least cements the contestant's place in the final 2. Also, I think last year was generally too much of a mess for the producers planned method to go how they wanted it to go.

The "established winner" tends to have an "alright" performance the 1st week that the judges praise, although not that much above the rest, but then usually by week 5 they're praising that contestant beyond belief, whilst the contestant who owned week 1 (in terms of judges' praise/comments) has a performance that is totally slated by the judges and ends up in the bottom two and becomes a shock elimination.

Examples from previous years: (Year 5) Laura White, (Year 6) Lucie Jones, (Year 7) TreyC Cohen, (Year 8) The Risk. Jahmene and Ella seemed to have that week 1 most praised performance so one of them will most likely be this year's shock week 5 elimination. The way the judges' praising of Ella has calmed down and began to decline this week and last week suggests it might be Ella, but I actually reckon it could be Jahmene because another recurring theme in X Factor is the "audition chosen one."

By this, I mean a contestant who performs (usually in the first audition show), blows the judges away and gets praise like the second coming for a large part of the competition (especially at the beginning), but is also given a hard time by the judges at times, whilst they turn out not to be as popular as expected with the audience yet the show seems to do everything in its power to get them to the semi-final, where they bow out. Prime examples: Diana Vickers is season 5's, Danyl Johnson is season 6's, Cher Lloyd is season 7's, Misha B is season 8's. They also usually tend to make a huge impact in the first live show. I think Ella might actually be this "audition chosen one" rather than Jahmene, but we'll see.

Now, I actually don't think these are chosen ones that the producers ever intend to win and reckon that they rather create these recurrences intentionally to establish a sort of narrative. It makes the show obviously predictable, but this predictability eludes most somehow, and I have no idea how they do it, but I believe this is all part of the narrative too.

Included in this narrative, I also think is a week 4 exit from a contestant who didn't shine that much in the auditions but seemed to be gaining gradual momentum in popularity, but has a bad week between weeks 2-4, and if they had survived week 2-4, would afterwards go on to become the runner-up usually, but in some cases, the winner. They are usually a singer who does not initially come across as the best singer in the competition, particularly in the first audition stage, but has something unique about them; e.g. a unique tone like Rebecca Ferguson, Sophie Habibis or Jade Ellis or can dance and sing really well at the same time, e.g. Olly Murs/JLS/Alexandra Burke.

It is usually someone dispensable at the week 4 stage because they are off the radar but not at the week 7-10 stage because of their underdog/dark horse status and how much they have grown. I’ve mentioned runner-ups and winners here because I think that part of the XF narrative is that the week 4 exit contestant, the runner-up and even sometimes the winner are interchangeable. By this, I mean that in the beginning, for the XF producers, the week 4 exit, the runner-up and the winner are all the same three people and that they don’t decide which of the them they are going to PR the hell out of to the final until that week 3-5 stage (e.g. this year, James Arthur).

Despite all I’ve said, I might be completely wrong in more than one sense: 1. The XF producers might turn the narrative completely upside-down on its head so that nothing matching what I’ve described happens, though I find this very unlikely… or 2. The show is not this far planned by the producers and there is no intentionally constructed narrative but rather just a naturally recurring one caused by the way in which the British public votes.

Very Very Interesting. I hope people take the time to read this.

Makes sence, thought the same thing about the Sophie habibis and jade Ellis thing.

Interesting!

It's a good theory, and I definitely think there is some truth in it.

I think some things are natural progression though, for example acts that do well in the audition phase or early weeks tend to go earlier as people get bored of them quickly. The public seem to prefer acts that grow rather than start off great, that's why Ella or Jahmene are at risk, people are already bored of them.

Excellent post OP. Thank you.

As far as the thread title goes, I agree. For the last three years it's been blindingly obvious by the mid-point who's going to win - yes, even Little Mix. Their ET performance, complete with sob story, was a clear set-up for victory. Joe McElderry, Matt Cardle, and Alexandra Burke all had massive breakthrough performances around the halfway point and never looked back. The same would have applied to Rhydian Roberts, and I think it's universally agreed that Leon Jackson's victory was a completely bizarre fluke that no one saw coming, so it's fair to include Rhydian here.

As for the "early favourite/shock exit" theory, it stands to reason that those two elements are always in place - the early favourite never wins and there is always a shock exit - but these do don't always relate to each other. Laura White qualified for both these roles, as did The Risk to some extent and Lucie Jones, but the early favourite is more likely to be the gradually hated Week 8/9 exit - see Janet Devlin, Diana Vickers and Danyl Johnson.

So I broadly agree with both those points. If the formula does work, then I would predict that this is what's going to happen:

Early favourite: Ella
Week 5 shock: Jahmene
Week 8/9 exit: Ella
Chosen winner: James

Very interesting discussion!

I think there there tends to be 3-4 chosen ones at the start of the live shows - ie contestants that the producers would be more than happy to make the final. I think Janet Devlin was one of those last year, but her attitude/personality once the shows started pissed the producers off and they decided to sabotage her, with poor slots and unsuitable songs. they got rid of her in the end.

This year at the start of the lives the chosen ones were James, Jahmene, Lucy and Ella. Also the 2 boybands, one of which will be expendable along the route, depending on how they perform and which appears more popular with the teen girls.

I think Lucy rather than Ella is more likely to be the shock eviction in a couple of weeks time. Especially if she is in the bottom two with Rylan. They would definitely save him over her, for the shock effect, like Jedward and Lucy Jones.

I agree with a lot that has been said apart from 2010 .Matt was the bookies fav from start to finish ..but he did repeat first time in week 5 which goes with the theory

Totally agree. I'm bored of Ella already. Hope my £200 on james comes in now haha

Yes, I also reckon these are the week 5 shock, week 8/9 exits and chosen winner contestants too, and agree with your post: the early favourite does tend to become the gradually hated week 8/9 exit. Hmmm, you're right about Laura White and I find it quite interesting how she fitted both those roles. The week 5 exit usually generates the most rage and outroar, so if this is all correct, next week is going to be quite messy. Well, I reckon regardless of the theory's validity, next week will be quite messy as the week 5 shock exit has rarely not occured.

I don't think he was quite as clear a favourite as Ella, Janet or Danyl at the start of their series' live shows. He was more of a Joe or a Rebecca - ie. a very obvious dark horse (Rebecca also making it to the final in the same year!).

And yes, how obvious it is varies from year to year but the point is that the winner always has an obvious "moment" around the midpoint where they are basically crowned winner there and then...

2008: Alexandra - Candyman (Week 3)
2009: Joe - Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word (week 6)
2010: Matt - The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face (Week 5)
2011: Little Mix - E.T./Don't Let Go (Week 4/Week 7) (both arguable)
2012: James - Sexy and I Know It (Week 3)

I kind of agree, but actually, I think the winners are supposed to have two "moments" - one around Week 3/4 where they fully establish themselves as being in with a legit shot, and then one around Week 7/8 where they become the official frontrunner.

Alexandra for example has "Candyman" in Week 3, when it became clear that she had a shot, and then in Week 8, she had "Listen" where the judges fully got on board.

"Sexy & I Know It" presumably is James' first moment, and now he'll probably have another one in around 3/4 weeks time.

Yes, I think that's probably more accurate. Very interesting.

See I'd say
Producers Pet: Ella
Week Five Shock: Lucy (Tulisa losing her second Lidl Cupcake within the space of two weeks)
Semi Final Shock: Ella
Winner: James (I hope) failing that Jahmene or Onion J.

The problem is that Lucy's week off is kind of an unknown factor. All we have to go off is Diana Vickers, who was rapidly losing popularity by that point anyway so arguably didn't suffer. But Lucy has become a bit of an unexpected (for the producers) hate figure. It'll be interesting to see how they play this one out - they could easily spin this either way for her to become the hate figure or the shock exit if they wanted to. I suppose we'll see, but Lucy is definitely a bit of a wild card for the theory as far as this series is concerned.

Some really interesting theories in here, its certainly funny how certain patterns tend to repeat. The only thing I would say is if it was so formulaic someone would probably have completely twigged it early. Definately agree though that a certain narrative is built by producers and James is looking more and more like the chosen one, which is interesting as he is currently well behind Jahmene and Ella with bookies.

But that actually supports the "James will win" theory, because with the exception of Matt Cardle, the BIB is always the case for the winner at this stage. Little Mix in particular didn't become favourites until very, very late on. Even obvious winner Joe McElderry wasn't bookies favourite until his big "moment".

As somebody who followed Matt's progression very closely from Bootcamp onwards (I liked his first audition, but was googling in earnest from Bootcamp) he was the clear favourite with the bookies from the first live show and never lost that spot. I don't think he was as clear a favourite with the producers though. As I said in an earlier post, I think the producers have 3-4 chosen ones at the start of the lives - all of whom are welcome to make the final, although not necessarily win. Matt was definitely one of those "chosen ones" in terms of a place in the final, but I think either Cher, 1D or Rebecca would have been a preferred winner. With Matt however, he was a bit of a runaway train and all attempts to derail him in the last few weeks, such as early slots and dreadful styling, failed.

Yes, I agree with that. I think they just left it too late, and learnt their lesson the following year by derailing Janet Devlin as early as Week 3 (and they still didn't get her out until Week 8, by a whisker). So with Matt, they had to perform a bit of a u-turn once it became clear nothing could stop him from winning, and retrospectively turn him into the chosen one when he was designed as a late faller. So you could say the theory in this thread worked too well with Matt.

Yeah thinking about it that makes sense, guess I just figured the odds would be a little wiser to it. The real question is how sure can we be James the definite chosen one, I would say he fits the pattern extremely well especially with his ever improving judges comments, whereas for example Ella is beginning to get some veiled criticism.

If you read a betting site the name escapes now..matt was definately losing ground until he sang knights in white satin..week 8 which carried him through to win even thou he was so sick and could not perform that well

I don't think they intended him to carry that song off quite so well though. On paper it's a rather poor song choice. When he turned into the performance of the night it was too late to stop him from winning, which I think they tried to do in a half-hearted sort of way.

If history is to repeat itself for me James or Lucy scream 4th place, like marmite singers Diana, Danyl, Cher, Misha! Union J perfect third placers like teen fanbase same difference, eoghan quigg, one direction and a fight for first place from Ella and Jahmene, like general fanbase rivals Alexandra/JLS, Joe/Olly, Matt/Rebecca, Little Mix/Marcus type deal.

First of all OP, very interesting read and I generally agree.

BIB : I think Kylie generated a lot of last minute votes for Leon and pushed him over the finish line.