A Theory: By week 5, the winner is established

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billiesmith

29-10-2012

Originally Posted by Dr. Linus:
“I don't think he was quite as clear a favourite as Ella, Janet or Danyl at the start of their series' live shows. He was more of a Joe or a Rebecca - ie. a very obvious dark horse (Rebecca also making it to the final in the same year!).

And yes, how obvious it is varies from year to year but the point is that the winner always has an obvious "moment" around the midpoint where they are basically crowned winner there and then...

2008: Alexandra - Candyman (Week 3)
2009: Joe - Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word (week 6)
2010: Matt - The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face (Week 5)
2011: Little Mix - E.T./Don't Let Go (Week 4/Week 7) (both arguable)
2012: James - Sexy and I Know It (Week 3)”

Interesting thread but Joe didn't sing Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word until week 8 (week 6 was Queen week). Joe's obvious moment was week 7 when he sang Don't Let the Sun Go Down On Me

vidalia

29-10-2012

Originally Posted by outof thepark:
“If you read a betting site the name escapes now..matt was definately losing ground until he sang knights in white satin..week 8 which carried him through to win even thou he was so sick and could not perform that well”

Although Matt Cardle got the most public votes each week apart from Week 1 where the public voted Mary Byrne as their favourite.

Dr. Linus

29-10-2012

Originally Posted by vidalia:
“Although Matt Cardle got the most public votes each week apart from Week 1 where the public voted Mary Byrne as their favourite.”

We didn't know that until the show had finished though. Series 7 was actually pretty exciting in terms of eliminations, especially towards the end - because so many people were watching and commenting it was pretty hard to be sure who was winning the voting until the last few weeks, when it became pretty undeniable that Matt would win. Until Week 7/8, One Direction and Rebecca could easily have been winning the vote.

And in a way that's the whole point - the producers construct these narratives, not the viewers, because they know how the voting is going and we don't.

rbdcay

29-10-2012

I read this until I got to the part about James and stopped. If he is the chosen one then I am out.

This has really depressed me.

amelie74

29-10-2012

Very interesting theory - think you might be on to something.

James Arthur, Jahmene and Lucy seem to be the ones getting unqualified praise from the judges right now (whether they deserve it is another matter) and they are starting to be more critical of Ella. Jade (who was my dark horse) went from being a potential recording star to being criticised for the past 2 weeks and being booted out on some of the weakest 'reasons' I've heard judges give.

staceyxxx23

29-10-2012

Looks like King Rylan will win everybody over with his flawless vocals this week then and he will be established as the winner.

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