I am going to venture the hypothesis that a couple needs to have a lot of support on the "most" poll (well, duh) BUT also have low figures on the "least" poll. In short, a couple with a seemingly high level of support cannot prosper if it also attracts a considerable Marmite-faction of opponents.

Thus the winner will come from the trio of Dani/Kimberley/Michael. Louis has an outside chance.

Michael doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning. He just isn't good enough out of hold.

I don't think this is the case, the least polls show no indication of voting as there is no vote to eliminate. If a person is high on both most and least polls then they are likely to be getting a fairly high vote.

I think the only poll you can really use an an indicator is the most poll.

I could see Kimberley winning despite her bottom 2 appearance last week.

I can't.

Michael does have a chance of winning he is popular.

Chris Hollins? who wasn't that good in or out of hold and wasn't any better than Michael at this stage.

Would be very happy to see any of those four in the final.

If it is all down to popularity then Lisa stands a good a chance as any of them. The audience love her, and as she has yet to be in the dance off, the general public do too.

If he can wriggle through the 4 horrible latins to come with some finesse (work him Nat!) and keeps the public momentum he's in with a shot. Watching back last night, I sense he has the public with him.

Yes and me. I think he & Nat are a great team & on a roll. He needs to keep clear of the dance off & he is in with a good chance.

We know nothing yet as to whether the muppets are keeping it in the last weeks do we?

Nope. I started off not being a fan as I didn't like him as a cricketer but week by week they have grown on me & Natalie is a goddess.

Looking at Michael's dances that he has left to do- I can't see him avoiding the dance off. Samba- timing issues a plenty. Paso- is he going to get the lines/shaping right? Rumba- no. Charleston- no. AT- not sure on this one. The two ballroom he has left are Tango and VW- but I think he'll have to get through two latin to get to his next ballroom? Otherwise he won't be able to do one ballroom/one latin when we get to the two dance stage.

She is AM-AYZ-ING.

I'm 95% sure that, for the purposes of the two-dance stage, Argentine Tango is classified as ballroom. So he could keep that one back in his locker til then.

Ahhh OK- thanks. That makes more sense because I think there are quite a few with only 2 ballroom left.

Am I right in thinking they rejigged the points system after the 3 3 1 fiasco that anyone could be saved from the dance off? So even if Michael or indeed anyone comes bottom of the board in later weeks, are they capable of being saved if they have enough public support?

Judging by what we know for sure from Kimberleys fall from grace week, which is that Michael was definitely in the top 4 of the vote I think if he goes to the bottom of the board again he will be saved. I think he will make the semis at least.

And if we have a double elimination in the semis which is the case isn't it with no drop out, then he might do it, as I can't see a DO in that scenario.

If there's a double elimination in the semis, it's perfectly possible for the most popular person with the public to leave, dance-off or not. Alex Jones might have topped the public vote by millions every single week, and still gone out.

Not that I believe that on Alex but I see your point.

I think he can go a lot further... I'm just not sure how far. Good ballroom is expected of him now, and I'm not sure with the latin. IDK- the public do love people who so obviously improve, so he may well win the whole thing.

I love Natalie and like Michael, but I don't think he deserves to win. His Latin is still crap and his hands/arms in the AS were terrible - that doesn't bode well for the Paso.

I think it's great that he's improved a lot and I want him to do well. However, I only want him to be in the final if his Latin drastically improves. All he really needs is one fairly good Latin dance to show enough improvement. I'm not sure if he has that in him.

It's not really likely in Alex's case as it would mean the semi final public vote went :

Alex
Jason
Chelsee
Harry
Holly

and we know how the public vote went in the final, but it is possible. Actually it's technically possible (if there are no ties) for the public favourite to be in the bottom 2/dance-off any week at all. It just takes some extremely unlikely maths in most cases.

As in reliant on how others poll as well.

For Austin to have avoided the DO there would have had to have been a complete reversal of the board voting wise with him first, and Lisa second, and that of course was never going to be if that's right.