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Chris Maloney: Free Money Bet |
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#1 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Buckinghamshire
Posts: 328
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Chris Maloney: Free Money Bet
Having topped the polls every week, according to some sources, and with the biggest demographic of over-50s poised to rack up even more votes in the final, it is surprising that Chris Maloney is rated as the outsider of the three by the bookmakers.
On Betfair just now, Jahmene is at 2.3, James at 2.7 and Chris at 5.4. (For those who don't understand betting, that means a £10 bet would return £23 if Jahmene won, £27 if you backed James, and £54 for Chris). I think Chris is nailed on to win this, and should be odds-on. These prices are massive value. |
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#2 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 244
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Chris wont win, anyone putting money on him to do so is throwing money away before christmas, not wise.
Believe me, Chris only just beat union j in the votes yesterday. the other two have fanbases 20x bigger than his, only this time they'll all be voting. |
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#3 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 37,498
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Quote:
Chris wont win, anyone putting money on him to do so is throwing money away before christmas, not wise.
Believe me, Chris only just beat union j in the votes yesterday. the other two have fanbases 20x bigger than his, only this time they'll all be voting. |
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#4 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 3,328
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Quote:
Source?
Already had £35 at 9/1 a few weeks ago, so I'm hoping he can oblige
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#5 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 244
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Quote:
Doesn't have one - s/he is a well-known fantasist on here.
Already had £35 at 9/1 a few weeks ago, so I'm hoping he can oblige ![]() My source is my own knowledge and contacts. You will see next week the votes from each week, and you will see Chris JUST beat union j by less than 3% |
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#6 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 469
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impossible for him against the anti-vote, he attracts so much hate that only a fix can win it for him.
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#7 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,612
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I reckon it's ok to have a fun bet for a bit of interest but I'd never ever lump on a show like XFactor... it's far too scripted and manipulated. It only takes a nasty bit of gossip/rumour to pop up in the gutter press this week to turn everything on its head....
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#8 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
You people are really naive. But by all means waste your money on bets and votes, don't encourage others to do the same though.
My source is my own knowledge and contacts. You will see next week the votes from each week, and you will see Chris JUST beat union j by less than 3% But there does appear to be a lot of money going on Chris, his odds have shortened again. James Arthur's odds are drifting, Jahmene remains solid. Perhaps some people have insider knowledge that you don't possess ? |
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#9 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 244
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Quote:
You may be right, I don't know.
But there does appear to be a lot of money going on Chris, his odds have shortened again. James Arthur's odds are drifting, Jahmene remains solid. Perhaps some people have insider knowledge that you don't possess ? I am talking when voting is taking place you gather real knowledge. Right now is just a bunch of people betting on a guy because they've heard he's topped the voting every week and is good odds, so they think he can win, let me put some money on. |
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#10 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
You cannot vote now.
I am talking when voting is taking place you gather real knowledge. Right now is just a bunch of people betting on a guy because they've heard he's topped the voting every week and is good odds, so they think he can win, let me put some money on. If so, good luck..you should be able to make yourself a fortune. |
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#11 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 244
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Quote:
How ?..have you got insider knowledge from someone connected to the show ?
If so, good luck..you should be able to make yourself a fortune. |
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#12 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 13,451
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Quote:
Chris wont win, anyone putting money on him to do so is throwing money away before christmas, not wise.
Believe me, Chris only just beat union j in the votes yesterday. the other two have fanbases 20x bigger than his, only this time they'll all be voting. I don't think Chris will win though, I think he'll probably be final 2 with Jahmene and possible leading before 3rd place is revealed, however the big anti vote will mean Jahmene will win. Shame as it would be hilarious if Chris won
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#13 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,655
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Ooo right that's it I'm putting money on Chris via betfair!
Come on Chrissy!! Win this thing!! |
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#14 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 244
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Quote:
Doubt that considering James has been B2 before
I don't think Chris will win though, I think he'll probably be final 2 with Jahmene and possible leading before 3rd place is revealed, however the big anti vote will mean Jahmene will win. Shame as it would be hilarious if Chris won ![]() He was in the bottom two so what, one bad week, since then his popularity has risen considerably, and now in the final a lot more will vote than they would any other time. Olly Murs & JLS were in the bottom two and comfortably beat the 3rd place finisher. You doubt his fanbase even though it's evident. On here he is people's favourite to win in each poll, on twitter he has the most followers, in phone ins, talk shows he is rated the highest with most people supporting him. He doesn't have fans who vote but they could do in the final and even if 50% of them do, Christopher has no chance. |
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#15 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Richmond, Surrey.
Posts: 13,837
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Quote:
Doubt that considering James has been B2 before
I don't think Chris will win though, I think he'll probably be final 2 with Jahmene and possible leading before 3rd place is revealed, however the big anti vote will mean Jahmene will win. Shame as it would be hilarious if Chris won ![]() |
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#16 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 37,498
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Quote:
You people are really naive. But by all means waste your money on bets and votes, don't encourage others to do the same though.
My source is my own knowledge and contacts. You will see next week the votes from each week, and you will see Chris JUST beat union j by less than 3% |
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#17 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 244
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Quote:
Your arse then.
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#18 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Scotland
Posts: 11,156
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i like having a bet on x factor it adds some fun ive been betting most weeks guessing who will be eliminated and ive done very well out of it, I liked Chris at auditions and put a bet on him to win :0 its going to be a strange final for me cause I like Jahmene but if Chris wins I win
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#19 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 519
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Irresponsible to encourage gambling, especially when forcing your opinion which may or may not be correct
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#20 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,655
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Quote:
You quoted me saying ''this time they will all be voting'' And you still manage to completely confuse yourself.
He was in the bottom two so what, one bad week, since then his popularity has risen considerably, and now in the final a lot more will vote than they would any other time. Olly Murs & JLS were in the bottom two and comfortably beat the 3rd place finisher. You doubt his fanbase even though it's evident. On here he is people's favourite to win in each poll, on twitter he has the most followers, in phone ins, talk shows he is rated the highest with most people supporting him. He doesn't have fans who vote but they could do in the final and even if 50% of them do, Christopher has no chance. |
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#21 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,605
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Quote:
No, within the betting industry. There are patterns that develop at certain times during voting. This weekend indicated that Chris and Union J were neck and neck in the last few hours.
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#22 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 13,451
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Quote:
You quoted me saying ''this time they will all be voting'' And you still manage to completely confuse yourself.
He was in the bottom two so what, one bad week, since then his popularity has risen considerably, and now in the final a lot more will vote than they would any other time. Olly Murs & JLS were in the bottom two and comfortably beat the 3rd place finisher. You doubt his fanbase even though it's evident. On here he is people's favourite to win in each poll, on twitter he has the most followers, in phone ins, talk shows he is rated the highest with most people supporting him. He doesn't have fans who vote but they could do in the final and even if 50% of them do, Christopher has no chance. |
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#23 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 244
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Quote:
Not trying to be a pain... ( honest!) but Ashley was well ahead in most/all polls to win I'm a Celebrity.. She didn't. So it evidences that polls here and in several papers should be taken with a pinch of salt.
These things can happen. I think Charlie was favourite then Ashley became favourite when it got to final two, 50/50 in my opinion. Here you have a small fanbase right. But they're hardcore voters. Chris say has 100k fans. Of that maybe 60-75% vote some more than once or multiple times, and every week he is not viewed as safe, so they are consistent. Floating voters maybe some weeks feel sorry for him. So every week he is consistently getting roughly the same amount of votes. Earlier weeks there are more contestants to spread out other votes, and less people vote anyway, so it's not a shock if he did top the votes a few of these weeks. But as contestants dwindle, and other contestants are not safe they begin to accumulate more votes consistently. Jahmene is most likely topping votes last 2-3 weeks. Now in the final, James who has the most fans by quite a margin, may receive a 250% boost in votes, as the only time a lot of his fans would vote would be the final, and then he is really the only one for young girls right now. Jahmene would recieve a boost also of course. Chris if anti x factor is really strong he could but reality is same people will be voting for him, they are consistent but they cannot double themselves. James is a ? 'cos if his fans do just say it's better he doesn't win forget it, then he could finish 3rd, but if they bother to vote then he will win. Jahmene will finish above Chris either way. I get the logic behind betting on Chris, but it won't actually work out. Finals bring out 10x more votes than usual, and those 10x maybe 5% will be for Chris. |
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#24 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 37,498
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Quote:
No, within the betting industry. There are patterns that develop at certain times during voting. This weekend indicated that Chris and Union J were neck and neck in the last few hours.
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#25 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,655
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Quote:
Yeah but that stuff is hard to analyze, cos they vote everyday, there's been times Rydian was 1/6 and Leon 4/1 but Leon won and most polls had rydian.
These things can happen. I think Charlie was favourite then Ashley became favourite when it got to final two, 50/50 in my opinion. Here you have a small fanbase right. But they're hardcore voters. Chris say has 100k fans. Of that maybe 60-75% vote some more than once or multiple times, and every week he is not viewed as safe, so they are consistent. Floating voters maybe some weeks feel sorry for him. So every week he is consistently getting roughly the same amount of votes. Earlier weeks there are more contestants to spread out other votes, and less people vote anyway, so it's not a shock if he did top the votes a few of these weeks. But as contestants dwindle, and other contestants are not safe they begin to accumulate more votes consistently. Jahmene is most likely topping votes last 2-3 weeks. Now in the final, James who has the most fans by quite a margin, may receive a 250% boost in votes, as the only time a lot of his fans would vote would be the final, and then he is really the only one for young girls right now. Jahmene would recieve a boost also of course. Chris if anti x factor is really strong he could but reality is same people will be voting for him, they are consistent but they cannot double themselves. James is a ? 'cos if his fans do just say it's better he doesn't win forget it, then he could finish 3rd, but if they bother to vote then he will win. Jahmene will finish above Chris either way. I get the logic behind betting on Chris, but it won't actually work out. Finals bring out 10x more votes than usual, and those 10x maybe 5% will be for Chris. I understand (and mostly agree with) what you are saying, and totally agree that the voting will be different what with it being the final. Whoever is booted out as 3rd, if not J&J- I anticipate some of their voters will then vote for the other remaining J if they are anti CM'ers. Is it on Sunday as well, like normal this week? As I'm out Saturday night and really don't want to miss it/not be able to vote (I'm not a hardcore voter, I'm a get a handful in on a Saturday night after a glass of wine and then moan on the Sunday that I've given Simon more money just so I can have pleasure of hopefully hearing CM for another week ) I keep meaning to check the TV guide but forget - I just remembered
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