Originally Posted by Thine Wonk:
“The projected coverage for (at the time in 04/05) the 'new O2 UMTS network' would have been 2100Mhz, they were not to know they would be allowed to re-farm.”
Fair enough - however as I said I would doubt any network would end up producing such coverage on that scale especially in some very desolate places while a few white patches have some population centres. Technically it is unrealistic unless money is no object. That looks more like a publicity map than a proper technical one.
Originally Posted by Thine Wonk:
“If you prefer though you can compare it against 3G900 although remember this is only supported by some devices, even then it still shows massive rural areas where there's no 3G, certainly no where near what they said it would be all those years ago.”
In my experience, most mobile phones with 3G capabilities that are sold in the UK in the past two years have been capable of using a 3G network on 900MHz as well as 2100MHz. A 2100MHz 'single band' 3G phone is perhaps as anarchic as a single-band GSM mobile phone was this time a decade ago. There were handsets and mobile-broadband USB modems available from 2008 onwards at least that could handle 3G on 900MHz. As for coverage, the fact is that while O2's own 3G coverage across the UK isn't exactly brilliant especially outside built-up areas, it
is starting to fill in these holes, through upgrading some previously rural 2G GPRS or EDGE only 900/1800MHz to carry 3G 900MHz only at least in Northern Ireland (can't vouch for what's taking place in Britain). In terms of actively increasing their geographical footprint of 3G coverage, O2 is at least taking action.
Originally Posted by Thine Wonk:
“My question is, do we take them at their word for 4G now given this information, and the comments made by O2's COO saying in about 13-14 years time 4G being of great benefit.”
It seems rather abstract about someone in O2 quite high up taking about "13-14 years", giving a date of around 2025-26, but it is difficult to exactly know what technology will be like then, the same way about thinking in 1998 how some small isolated villages surrounded by mountains in NI can get up to 80Mbps download internet speeds when all that was possible domestically back in the late 90's were dial-up speeds a tiny fraction of that.
Maybe another way to look at it is with how all five networks at the time of the 3G spectrum auction thought would be the killer function - video calling. That ended up going down like a lead balloon alongside poor battery times in 3G mode. It wasn't until the likes of 3 (and to an extent T-Mobile) started at looking to focus their UMTS networks more for general data use alongside developments in HSPA to increase user data throughput (3 started deploying HSDPA in 2007 IIRC) that the networks finally found something that they could sell to the public which 2G was only capable of to a more limited extent.
4G is being sold as having better user data capacity being available to customers for mobile internet against 3G, but is it enough right now to sell to consumers over 3G? With current LTE technology (especially with VOLTE not being fully defacto at the present) against DC-HSPA, probably not on speed alone. Also there needs to be a killer function for 4G over 3G that 3G isn't capable of doing well, like mobile data on 3G over 2G - until that happens, like say significant improvements to the LTE standard that delivers significant improvements over previous versions like HSPA has done to UMTS, then many people might just stick with 3G in the same way that most people until around 2008-09 saw no real benefit for people to use 3G over 2G.
Maybe the COO in question is deciding to play down the immediate impact a 4G network licence could have in the short term in selling to customers through cautious business language, though it is obvious that not applying for a slice of the 800/2600MHz spectrum is something that cannot be considered. Rather they see a more long term benefit in 4G provisions. Obviously if 4G take up proves to be quicker than expected, then Telefonica O2 will need a Plan B unless it just remains content with a base of users that don't use much data.
Also, it isn't just O2 that are capable of major goof-ups in making promises of coverage they can't keep - while 2012 hasn't finished yet, it looks increasingly likely that EE's promise via MBNL back in February of covering 94% of the population in Northern Ireland with 3G by the end of this year is not going to happen. And if this doesn't come to pass, should we then put faith in the promise that all current 2G MBNL sites (either Orange or T-Mobile) in the UK will carry 3G by the end of 2013? Not to mention that Vodafone last year stated that all their 2G sites would be upgraded to EDGE by the end of 2011. That didn't happen either.