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Polling facts and figures combined with voting patterns =
radio1fann
08-12-2012
So i decided to crunch up all the figures

Polls such as

Sugarscape

James Arthur 59%
Jahmene 26%
Chris 15%

TheSun 49%
35%
16%

the mirror 51%
etc etc

Combined with followings via social media
General voting patterns
Who votes
regional advantages/disadvantages

So i have James Arthur at 52% on average with polls
Jahmene 35%
Chris 13%

Social media is heavily in James favor also with a % much larger

So now we counter in the type of people on neither and their preferences which i have Jahmene having a larger %

Then we count in likely voters of each with the rough estimated % This would be Chris having a higher number of voters per fan ratio with Jahmene second

So crunching all the figures i came up with the % at this.

Jahmene to get 46% of votes
James Arthur 45%
Chris 9%

However that's just based on everything as it stands.

Given the fact that people will be watching the final and may well be inclined to vote for the 1st time having not watched much of it at other points.

I factor in a potential 5% rise based on performance

So if James performs to his best and is great and Jahmene is very good but not at his level i can see it fluctuating to 48-44 in James Favour. If they both perform same level i see Jahmene just winning based on these estimates.

Chris really does not stand a chance from the polls, unless the judges really crucified him and a limited number of people voted an outrageous number of times, i cannot see him getting near the % of the other two.
Yeah_Jackie
08-12-2012
Why did you do this?
xeo
08-12-2012
Well apparently Chris is winning by a large margin so there you go.
Sex
08-12-2012
Originally Posted by Yeah_Jackie:
“Why did you do this?”

.............. why does this post make me laugh
k0213818
08-12-2012
Social Media shouldn't be held as a factor IMO, The boybands both had massive Twitter fanbases and were consistently in the bottom two.
_NiallDEE_
08-12-2012
Originally Posted by k0213818:
“Social Media shouldn't be held as a factor IMO, The boybands both had massive Twitter fanbases and were consistently in the bottom two.”

This. tbh nothing on the internet should be held as a factor, as Chris is hated everywhere on the internet, yet has made the final without being B2
InMyArms
08-12-2012
I don't think your average Chris voter would vote in any of those polls to be honest, any online poll will underestimate his vote.
dog_eat_dog
08-12-2012
Originally Posted by radio1fann:
“
Chris really does not stand a chance from the polls, unless the judges really crucified him and a limited number of people voted an outrageous number of times, i cannot see him getting near the % of the other two.”

He'll beat them both by a comfortable margin.

All throughout the series, both social media stats and polls have had Christopher bottom each week, yet according the Daily Star leaks (which are historically accurate) he's been topping the votes. This is why he's never been bottom two.

Unless his loyal voters suddenly desert him and the other two get a sudden surge of the popular vote, I can't see how Christopher can lose, tbh.
Tomi Adenuga
08-12-2012
The thing is, everyone will be anti-Christopher if he gets in The Top 2 and vote for the other person. So, I'm not sure who will win.
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