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Old 13-02-2013, 04:28
triton333
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Australian unbeaten mare Black Caviar resumes racing on Saturday at Flemington in the Group 1 1000m Black Caviar Lightning (formerly the Lightning Stakes, but now renamed in her honour). She will be attempting her 23rd win from 23 starts and this will be her first race since winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. There are acceptances for seven other runners and the race will be run at 5.30 am Saturday UK time.
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Old 13-02-2013, 07:45
alanrollins
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They're saying that Flemenstar has a lung infection..........

But i think they are quite happy to be missing Cheltenham. He's not going to get the trip in the Gold Cup, he'd probably get beat by Sprinter sacre and the race he would probably win, the Ryanair, has been rubbished by connections as not worth running in................be a bit embarrasssing if they ran in it now..............
If it was mine I would want to run Cheltenham. I mean if he is ill fair enough but whilst I agree Sprinter Sacre is likely to beat anything thrown at him, you never know, one error and Flemenstar could be breathing down his neck.

The Betfred Bowl would have probably been a good race at Aintree too, if run on good going and a flat track.
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Old 13-02-2013, 10:04
swingaleg
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Australian unbeaten mare Black Caviar resumes racing on Saturday at Flemington in the Group 1 1000m Black Caviar Lightning (formerly the Lightning Stakes, but now renamed in her honour). She will be attempting her 23rd win from 23 starts and this will be her first race since winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. There are acceptances for seven other runners and the race will be run at 5.30 am Saturday UK time.
Look forward to seeing that..............

Black Caviar at Royal Ascot was one of the great days of 2012, but we get to see all her races as one of our racing channels covers the Aussie racing overnight with highlights the next day.
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Old 13-02-2013, 21:18
triton333
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Look forward to seeing that..............

Black Caviar at Royal Ascot was one of the great days of 2012, but we get to see all her races as one of our racing channels covers the Aussie racing overnight with highlights the next day.
Although it turned out to be an exciting and dramatic race, I would have much preferred the horse to have been in the form she'd been in back home. I was annoyed that jockey Luke Nolen told the TV audience that he'd underestimated the "testing" Ascot track, giving the impression that she couldn't handle it. I don't dispute that it's more testing than many other courses, but it should be no more testing for her than the other horses. She just wasn't at her best and apparently was injured during the race.

Royal Ascot's Nick Smith will be there in Saturday. He's trying to entice Black Caviar back to the UK this year, but I think it's very unlikely.

There's an amazing array of stuff planned for Saturday:
While the raceday typically attracts around 10,000 racegoers, over 22,000 flocked to Flemington to witness Black Caviarís 19th straight win in the race last year. The mare has not raced on Victorian turf for over a year and is expected to draw an even larger attendance this year.

David Courtney [Victoria Racing Club CEO] announced a host of celebratory initiatives, including:

The actual saddlecloth Ė signed by Peter Moody and Luke Nolen - to be worn by Black Caviar on Saturday will be given to the best-dressed Black Caviar-themed racegoer. Roving judges will choose 10 finalists, who will all receive a Black Caviar merchandise pack and be invited to the Mounting Yard for the winner to be selected by a special guest.
Racegoers will receive free Black Caviar visors, fans and banners to help cheer on the record-breaking horse.
The specially created Black Caviar Precinct on the east end of the front lawn will feature:
- A special Black Caviar Walk of Fame with 22 displays profiling each of her victories to date.
- A Black Caviar photo booth providing racegoers with a free memento of the day.
- A Black Caviar nail bar will have fansí nails painted in salmon and black for free.
- Free live entertainment from cover band Popcorn from 2.40pm.
Racegoers will be able to take home a special souvenir racebook ($6), which offers the chance to win a trip to Royal Ascot flying business class with Emirates.
A 12-metre representation of Black Caviarís salmon and black livery will feature on the Flemington Mounting Yard grass.
The new Schweppes Flemington Fling bar in the renovated Hill Stand will be serving a signature Black Caviar cocktail, the Caviar Blush. The refreshing mix of gin, Schweppes Agrum Citrus, lime juice, watermelon and fresh blueberries, served in a highball glass, provides a visual homage to Black Caviarís famous silks.
Fans can win the Ultimate Black Caviar Lightning Prize through Triple M (visit Triple M's website to enter), which includes a meet and greet with trainer Peter Moody, watching the race from the Mounting Yard, hospitality for four people in the G1 Pavilion, luxury hotel accommodation for four, private transfers to and from Flemington, a $1000 TAB betting voucher, a bottle of Johnnie Walker Gold Label, a Schweppes Flemington Fling Kit and a Black Caviar Merchandise Pack.
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Old 13-02-2013, 21:30
swingaleg
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I know it's a bit corny but i love the way the crowd all dress in pink and black with flags and so on................

It's fantastic when a superstar horse comes along that transcends the normal racing fans and inpinges on the general public

We had Frankel last year and he made an impact outside of racing but not to the same extent as Black Caviar over there. But there was a token effort to get people to carry Frankel flags and so on. Two or three years ago we had our two great 'chasers, Denman and Kauto Star and there was a marketing campaign to get people to support one or the other and whip up the rivalry but it only had minimal success

I just don't think our racing fans are into razamatazz...........
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Old 13-02-2013, 21:46
swingaleg
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Although it turned out to be an exciting and dramatic race, I would have much preferred the horse to have been in the form she'd been in back home. I was annoyed that jockey Luke Nolen told the TV audience that he'd underestimated the "testing" Ascot track, giving the impression that she couldn't handle it. I don't dispute that it's more testing than many other courses, but it should be no more testing for her than the other horses. She just wasn't at her best and apparently was injured during the race.

Our sprinters are not much good to be honest, for some reason we can only produce the occasional quality sprinter every few years. The Aussies and Americans would clean up in European group one sprints if they ran regularly.
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Old 13-02-2013, 22:03
triton333
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I know it's a bit corny but i love the way the crowd all dress in pink and black with flags and so on................

It's fantastic when a superstar horse comes along that transcends the normal racing fans and inpinges on the general public
Yes, it's fantastic to see the excitement she generates for the fans. We've had a few great horses that have attracted a lot of press and attention, but nothing like this (in recent times anyway; I wasn't around for Phar Lap).
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Old 16-02-2013, 08:54
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Well, that was fun. Black Caviar now has 23/23, and this time she broke the course record for 1000m at Flemington with 55.42s. The previous record was set in 1988. I was at the track today. The flags at the course indicated at least a partial headwind, but I don't know how it was on the Flemington straight. It was hot work being there,.with the temp. > 30 degrees C, but someone had to turn up and show support.
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Old 16-02-2013, 09:26
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Luke Nolen joked that he didn't drop his hands on her today.
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Old 16-02-2013, 09:36
alanrollins
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Cracking cards today.
I expect Cue Card could turn the tables on Captain Chris today from the King George. Finians Rainbow and Somersby make that a cracking battle at level weights. Wondering where Alberta's Run is for this race, it is declared after all for the Grand National, bizarrely.

Giles Cross won last years National trial at Haydock but I get the feeling Triggerman is the big threat off still a low weight. I find Monbeg Dude which won for me at Chepstow is high enough for now.


Black Caviar - wonder if she and Frankel will get together.

Would amuse me if they produced a multiple classic winner and they called it "Frank Caviar"
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Old 16-02-2013, 10:40
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Great to see Black Caviar back and winning. I think her latest win takes her earnings to over £4m, she is a truly amazing sprinter.
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Old 16-02-2013, 12:02
swingaleg
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For anyone who hasn't seen it yet,. here's win number 23 .........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmv37TVRbTI
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Old 16-02-2013, 12:57
swingaleg
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Cracking cards today.
I expect Cue Card could turn the tables on Captain Chris today from the King George. Finians Rainbow and Somersby make that a cracking battle at level weights.
I fancy Cue Card as well. I was going to put the cash down but he's been backed into favourite now, although his odds appear to be the same as last night and Captain Chris has drifted a bit. I'll see what odds he is after I've had my dinner !

I fancy a few others but none of them are at backable odds - I' don't back odds on shots. Zarkandar, Zaidpour, Rocky Creek, Red Sherlock, Kentford Grey Lady, Best Boy Barney are the ones I'm considering but 4 of them are odds on.........

For my comp - two selections, points for placed horses according to SP - I've gone for Brackloon High at Ascot and Cannington Brook at Haydock..........both around 10/1 at the moment.
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Old 16-02-2013, 13:00
alanrollins
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Yeah mate, Cannington Brook is a good shout. He is a bit of a course specialist too. I like determined types such as him.

My doubt is over the tough outing he had at Ffos Las two weeks ago when he was pipped by Carruthers.
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Old 16-02-2013, 13:46
swingaleg
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Yeah mate, Cannington Brook is a good shout. He is a bit of a course specialist too. I like determined types such as him.

My doubt is over the tough outing he had at Ffos Las two weeks ago when he was pipped by Carruthers.
Yes, that is a worry..........but he has won before off a two week turnaround and he loves haydock !

Best boy barney got beat whilst I was having my dinner, so not backing a loser is like backing a winner, good start to the day !...........

I backed Cue Card and i'm just sticking with that one...........
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Old 16-02-2013, 22:42
triton333
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Black Caviar - wonder if she and Frankel will get together.

Would amuse me if they produced a multiple classic winner and they called it "Frank Caviar"
Trainer Peter Moody was asked about her returning to England and he said the only reason he could see would be for her to meet Frankel. He was asked about Royal Ascot, so I took it to mean that she could have her last race there beforehand. But it's still highly unlikely.

She was the front-page story in Melbourne's newspapers this morning and the 1st item on the commercial TV news last evening.

I heard a part-owner this morning say he'd love to win another Newmarket Handicap with her. I was thinking, no, no, don't risk her sequence in a handicap. I hope the trainer and other owners talk some sense into him.
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Old 17-02-2013, 12:59
alanrollins
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Yes, that is a worry..........but he has won before off a two week turnaround and he loves haydock !

Best boy barney got beat whilst I was having my dinner, so not backing a loser is like backing a winner, good start to the day !...........

I backed Cue Card and i'm just sticking with that one...........
Well Cue Card was a good shout. He's been good to me in that I've backed him for every win of his, and swerved him for each defeat. I might be in the minority but I still think he had a bit left even though Captain Chris got upsides.

Don't fancy either of them for Cheltenham though...Captain Chris would lose 10-15 lengths a race there jumping to the right...Cue Card will be in a very competitive Ryanair because I can't imagine Tizzard would put him in against Sprinter Sacre...

Trainer Peter Moody was asked about her returning to England and he said the only reason he could see would be for her to meet Frankel. He was asked about Royal Ascot, so I took it to mean that she could have her last race there beforehand. But it's still highly unlikely.
We are lucky to have seen Black Caviar on these shores. I would love to see her race her again at her brilliant best but as you say, it is doubtful.

I have argued long and hard that had Bated Breath been entered for that race instead, and run to the quality of its second place in the Kings Stand performance we would already be talking about a defeat for that great horse and a Group 1 for BB.

BC had excuses that day but the second and third horses at Ascot ought to have been good enough at their best to have beaten her.

Picking up your point about handicaps, seeing her race in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood would have been a wonderful sight. Wonder how the weights would have looked...
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Old 17-02-2013, 14:12
swingaleg
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I was a bit late on Cue Card and only got 5/2...........but I don't think he was ever bigger than 11/4 so I didn't miss out on much

Quite a landmark winner for me...........

As I only have one betting account and I've never withdrawn any money nor have I ever paid any money in since I started the account I can tell exectly how i'm doing ............with that winner I now have over 20x my initial 'investment'................

2000% in five years - better than the building society................
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Old 17-02-2013, 14:22
alanrollins
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What is your secret, ratings? I am starting to get a good grip on some of my own, I have standard times for 2004-08 and testing my results now for 2009....they are looking really good and seem to present horses performing quite consistently...I am happy to share ideas via PM....
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Old 17-02-2013, 14:24
swingaleg
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I'm not sure about Grade One handicaps for flat racing..........

I can see the point that it would help to put 'figures' on the top horses.

Sea The Stars would be a good example...........because he rarely won by more than a length it was difficult for the handicappers to assess how good he was. He was beating 120s horses by a length.............so does that mean you give him a rating of say 128 ?

But everydody knows he could have won by more if he'd had to............

Now if those 120s horses had been getting 12 lbs and he still beat them by a length you could put him on 140 which is where most of us think he should be

That's the argument for it - that you can get a more precise evaluation of the relative merits of top horse

The argument against is that in Group One races you just want to know which is the best horse and in which case it just seems obvious that they run off level weights and may the best horse win

I'm in the 'against' camp but that's probably because group one handicaps are an alien concept to us ...............though we used to have them over Jumps !
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Old 17-02-2013, 14:24
alanrollins
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swing do you also think as I do that Captain Chris might not have overhauled Cue Card?

I thought it was a really determined front running performance, they've got the tactics right for him at last in a decent race...thought the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter played right into his hands...
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Old 17-02-2013, 14:26
alanrollins
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I'm not sure about Grade One handicaps for flat racing..........

I can see the point that it would help to put 'figures' on the top horses.

Sea The Stars would be a good example...........because he rarely won by more than a length it was difficult for the handicappers to assess how good he was. He was beating 120s horses by a length.............so does that mean you give him a rating of say 128 ?

But everydody knows he could have won by more if he'd had to............

Now if those 120s horses had been getting 12 lbs and he still beat them by a length you could put him on 140 which is where most of us think he should be

That's the argument for it - that you can get a more precise evaluation of the relative merits of top horse

The argument against is that in Group One races you just want to know which is the best horse and in which case it just seems obvious that they run off level weights and may the best horse win

I'm in the 'against' camp but that's probably because group one handicaps are an alien concept to us ...............though we used to have them over Jumps !
I agree, it would just simply be that Black Caviar might knock a lot of horses out of the handicap, it would simply be a wonderful sight. Not suggesting it should be made a Group 1!
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Old 17-02-2013, 14:34
swingaleg
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What is your secret, ratings? I am starting to get a good grip on some of my own, I have standard times for 2004-08 and testing my results now for 2009....they are looking really good and seem to present horses performing quite consistently...I am happy to share ideas via PM....
well, I have done ratings for the all weather racing but I'm a bit bored with that at the moment. For the last few winters I've concentrated on the all weather but this winter I'm looking at the jumpers for a change

Basicaslly I have a bit of a method............I tend to bet only in small field races of 5/6 runners and usually I look for a favourite that I don't think will be suited by the conditions or is not well handicapped and look for one to beat it. Basically I don't think it's rocket science - you look for well handicapped horses that are suited by the conditions

For the very top non-handicaps i just try and 'get to know' the horses and look for conditions under which they tend to win.........like Cue Card for example tends to win in small fields when he can get an easy, uncontested, lead

I'm happy enough to stick my bets up in this thread but I'm not a regular punter.............I probably average one bet every couple of weeks...........
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Old 17-02-2013, 14:39
swingaleg
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swing do you also think as I do that Captain Chris might not have overhauled Cue Card?

I thought it was a really determined front running performance, they've got the tactics right for him at last in a decent race...thought the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter played right into his hands...
He might have overhauled him but I think cue card had more in the locker after being able to set his own pace and might have gone on again

The reason I crossed out captain chris was partly because when i studied the race he was favourite but I was worried about that hard race at Kempton........I was looking for a reason to oppose the fave

I think CC is a cracking horse but i wouldn't fancy him in the Gold Cup if that's what they're planning
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Old 18-02-2013, 02:33
triton333
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The argument against is that in Group One races you just want to know which is the best horse and in which case it just seems obvious that they run off level weights and may the best horse win

I'm in the 'against' camp but that's probably because group one handicaps are an alien concept to us ...............though we used to have them over Jumps !
I don't know how we ended up with rich handicap races here; we have the king of them all with the Melbourne Cup of course, by far our richest and most well-known race.

Moment Of Change, the horse that ran second to Black Caviar, and which put up a very good showing considering that BC ran a track record, will run in the Newmarket, except that instead of carrying 2kg more he would have about 8kg less. Moody says it's his second-best horse. I think they'd be nuts to risk Black Caviar's sequence in it, but her connnections are still considering it seriously.
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