[Mystical123]

Originally Posted by The Ambassador

I can't help but wonder how much Ben Affleck being snubbed for Best Director in the Oscar noms is influencing these results.

Quite possibly, I still think Lincoln will beat it at the Oscars.

Jennifer Lawrence is looking good for her win now too.

[marjangles]

Originally Posted by The Ambassador

Argo winning Best Ensemble over Silver Linings Playbook & Lincoln at tonight's Screen Actors Guild Awards is the strongest indication yet that it's the one to beat for Best Picture at the Oscars.

I can't help but wonder how much Ben Affleck being snubbed for Best Director in the Oscar noms is influencing these results.

Although I'm still not convinced that Argo will win best picture the continuing success of the film makes Affleck's omission from the Best Director Oscar category look increasingly bizarre. If I was more of a conspiracy theorist I'd suggest something strange afoot at AMPAS,

The BAFTAs will be most interesting this year. I think Affleck is almost certain to collect the Director's Guild award so if he also picks up the BAFTA it makes the Academy look out of touch.

[Hutchy_Muse]

THE NOMINATIONS

BEST PICTURE
Silver Linings Playbook


BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”

BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”


BEST DIRECTOR
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Django Unchained”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Silver Linings Playbook”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Brave”


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Amour”


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Django Unchained”


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Les Miserables”


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Searching for Sugar Man”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Redemption”

BEST FILM EDITING
“Silver Linings Playbook”


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Life of Pi”


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Skyfall” from "Skyfall"


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”


BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“Henry”

BEST SOUND EDITING
“Django Unchained”


BEST SOUND MIXING
“Les Miserables"


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”

[Muttley76]

Originally Posted by Mystical123

Quite possibly, I still think Lincoln will beat it at the Oscars.

Bookies now disagree, as for the first time since the nominations were announced Lincoln has been overtaken as favourite by Argo.

In a sense it was inevitable that would happen given it's consistent failure to land much in the way of awards.

Last chance of a shot in the arm for Lincoln I feel is the DGA's this weekend, as Speilberg has historically done well there. On the other hand if it fails to win there I think it's effectively dead in the water.

Hence why I am waiting till after the DGA's to make my predications.

[Mystical123]

Originally Posted by Muttley76

Bookies now disagree, as for the first time since the nominations were announced Lincoln has been overtaken as favourite by Argo.

In a sense it was inevitable that would happen given it's consistent failure to land much in the way of awards.

Last chance of a shot in the arm for Lincoln I feel is the DGA's this weekend, as Speilberg has historically done well there. On the other hand if it fails to win there I think it's effectively dead in the water.

Hence why I am waiting till after the DGA's to make my predications.

You may well be right! I still think the lack of director nomination for Affleck means Argo won't win the Oscar. I'd be more than happy to eat my words though come Feb 24th, even if it'll ruin my predictions score!

[cliffy91]

I'd love De Niro to win but now I can't see it happening

[Muttley76]

with Argo winning the Director Guild Award last night, I pretty much think Lincolns chances in Best Picture are gone.

It almost feels like Spielberg is going to take best director at the oscars by default, which is unfortunate for a director of his stature, though one wonders if even then there might be a surprise is store, as Lincoln has so little in the way of pedigree this award season outside of the acting department, I may even go for Ang Lee to win for Life of Pi when I do my predictions later.

[Mystical123]

It is making the Academy look out of touch a bit, Affleck deserves Best Director and they didn't even bother nominating him.

I'd love Argo to win Best Picture, but I still wonder if the Academy will attempt to save face and go for a picture whose director they nominated...

Or else they could go completely left-field and give it to Les Miserables after it won the Golden Globe, but I don't think many people are expecting that now. Plus Tom Hooper's not nominated either, though he didn't really deserve a nomination.

[Muttley76]

Originally Posted by Mystical123

I'd love Argo to win Best Picture, but I still wonder if the Academy will attempt to save face and go for a picture whose director they nominated...

I think what you have to remember is that it was only the directors in the academy who shortlist for best director, while all academy members vote for the winner, and that actors make up by far the biggest block of voters overall....

I think that is massively significant in this case. Plus Argo has built up so much momentum in recent weeks while Lincoln has none.

Plus Argo winning Best Picture is a much more effective way of them saving face, if it doesn't they only look more out of touch than ever....

[Muttley76]

BEST PICTURE
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

BEST ACTRESS
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Behn Zeitlin, "Beast of the Southern Wild"
Michael Haneke, “Amour”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits”
“Wreck-It Ralph”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Amour”
“A Royal Affair”
“No”
“Kon-Tiki”
“War Witch”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Anna Karenina"
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“Les Miserables”
“Lincoln”
“Mirror Mirror”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Inocente”
“Kings Point”
“Mondays at Racine”
“Open Heart”
“Redemption”

BEST FILM EDITING
“Argo”
“Life of Pi
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Miserables”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Before My Time” from "Chasing Ice"
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from "Ted"
“Pi's Lullaby” from "Life of Pi"
“Skyfall” from "Skyfall"
“Suddenly” from "Les Miserables"

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Adam and Dog”
“Fresh Guacamole”
“Head Over Heels”
“Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'”
“Paperman”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“Asad”
“Buzkashi Boys"
“Curfew”
“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)”
“Henry”

BEST SOUND EDITING
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST SOUND MIXING
“Argo”
“Les Miserables"
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall"

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel's The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Snow White and the Huntsman'

[Mystical123]

Originally Posted by Muttley76

I think what you have to remember is that it was only the directors in the academy who shortlist for best director, while all academy members vote for the winner, and that actors make up by far the biggest block of voters overall....

I think that is massively significant in this case. Plus Argo has built up so much momentum in recent weeks while Lincoln has none.

Plus Argo winning Best Picture is a much more effective way of them saving face, if it doesn't they only look more out of touch than ever....

Of course, I'd forgotten about that. Much more likely for Argo to win then, the actors may well choose to support one of their own.

I really wouldn't mind being wrong in my prediction for Best Picture now.

[marjangles]

Originally Posted by Muttley76

I think what you have to remember is that it was only the directors in the academy who shortlist for best director, while all academy members vote for the winner, and that actors make up by far the biggest block of voters overall....

I think that is massively significant in this case. Plus Argo has built up so much momentum in recent weeks while Lincoln has none.

Plus Argo winning Best Picture is a much more effective way of them saving face, if it doesn't they only look more out of touch than ever....

Why do you think the academy directors didn't go for Affleck when nominating? Do you think it's because he's an actor and they wanted to shut him out? I can't believe that they truly felt that Benh Zeitlin did a better job than Affleck. Or maybe they were got at by Fox!

I'm ready to call shenanigans!

[Muttley76]

Originally Posted by marjangles

Why do you think the academy directors didn't go for Affleck when nominating? Do you think it's because he's an actor and they wanted to shut him out? I can't believe that they truly felt that Benh Zeitlin did a better job than Affleck. Or maybe they were got at by Fox!

I'm ready to call shenanigans!

it may be as simple as there being little to choose between the leading candidates and him missing out by a small margin (one theory is that Affleck and Bigalow may have taken potential votes off each other)....or perhaps a certain number of members figuring that Affleck is a young guy with plenty of years as a director ahead of him.

I don't really think there is an anti-affleck vibe here at all, personally, but it is looking increasingly embarrassing for the academy that he didn't make the shortlist.

[marjangles]

Originally Posted by Muttley76

it may be as simple as there being little to choose between the leading candidates and him missing out by a small margin (one theory is that Affleck and Bigalow may have taken potential votes off each other)....or perhaps a certain number of members figuring that Affleck is a young guy with plenty of years as a director ahead of him.

I don't really think there is an anti-affleck vibe here at all, personally, but it is looking increasingly embarrassing for the academy that he didn't make the shortlist.

He's 10 years older than Zeitlin.

I'm being flippant with my anti-Affleck comments but it wouldn't surprise me if there has been pressure placed on members of the directors branch to include directors that haven't been nominated elsewhere.

[Dizzle]

I'm just completely gobsmacked that The Academy can get something so incredibly wrong. He's won everything so far and is favourite for the BAFTA. They are looking more and more out of touch every day that passes.

[Johnny Clay]

Oh, for Heaven's sake.

The impenetrable mysteries of studio/Academy politics. Was it ever thus?

We'll never know why Affleck wasn't nominated, but we do know Argo is Warners sole entry in the best picture category - a category expanded (allegedly) to allow the majors to have at least one film on the list (except Paramount ). Warners have had a huge year with TDKR/Hobbit and....

We'll never know.

[marjangles]

Argo's momentum continues apace.

Does anyone feel we've learned anything from last night's awards?

I think it's becoming clearer that Christoph Waltz is on course for Oscar number 2 but I don't think Riva's win in the best actress category will be repeated on Oscar night. Hathaway and Day-Lewis look like dead certs.

Director at the Oscars is still wide open but Argo surely has to be favourite for best picture doesn't it?

And AMPAS (or at least the directors branch) continues to look totally out of touch over Affleck's exclusion from Best Director. How they can exclude someone from Best Director nomination who hasn't just been nominated everywhere else but has pretty much scooped up everything from everywhere else is beyond me.

[little-monster]

Poor Ben

Golden globe and now a couple of baftas, but to have the grandaddy of all movie awards to snub you must be a piss take to him. Oh well. Considering his success, it may give him the competition to do more follows. Something similar happened with Barbra Streisand. She drew a lot of acclaim for her work on Yentl and even won a golden globe for best director but the Oscars snubbed her and there was a lot of controversy about it.

[guestofseth]

Having seen Argo I can't join in with the "Ben Affleck was snubbed" campaign, I have to wonder if he/Argo would be winning so many awards if it wasn't for the so called snub. I will try to watch it again before the 24th, but I really don't get what the fuss is about.

I do think Christoph Waltz will get Best Supporting Actor, but I don't think he deserves it more than Tommy Lee Jones or Robert De Niro, he is the best thing about Django by a long way but his performance in Inglourious Basterds was much better.

[marjangles]

Originally Posted by guestofseth

Having seen Argo I can't join in with the "Ben Affleck was snubbed" campaign, I have to wonder if he/Argo would be winning so many awards if it wasn't for the so called snub. I will try to watch it again before the 24th, but I really don't get what the fuss is about.

I do think Christoph Waltz will get Best Supporting Actor, but I don't think he deserves it more than Tommy Lee Jones or Robert De Niro, he is the best thing about Django by a long way but his performance in Inglourious Basterds was much better.

I disagree with you completely about Argo, It's been my favourite of the films nominated and I honestly feel the direction was special.

You may have a point about Affleck winning because of the snub but to be able to win even on a sympathy vote you have to be nominated in the first place which he was. He didn't receive any nominations due to sympathy, the Oscars are the last organisation to release their nominations and whereas the presence of Haneke, Bigelow, Hooper, Tarantino and Russell have varied from list to list, one constant has been Affleck's nomination for Argo. Except for some reason at the Oscars.

ETA - his and Argo's win at the Golden Globes couldn't have been in response to his Oscar snub since the GG voting this year finished before the Oscar nominations were announced. So the Foreign Press Association clearly thought he deserved the win. The Critics Choice awards were awarded on the same day as the Oscar nominations so again no sympathy vote there.

[Mystical123]

Originally Posted by guestofseth

Having seen Argo I can't join in with the "Ben Affleck was snubbed" campaign, I have to wonder if he/Argo would be winning so many awards if it wasn't for the so called snub. I will try to watch it again before the 24th, but I really don't get what the fuss is about.

I do think Christoph Waltz will get Best Supporting Actor, but I don't think he deserves it more than Tommy Lee Jones or Robert De Niro, he is the best thing about Django by a long way but his performance in Inglourious Basterds was much better.

I disagree entirely about Argo as well, best film I've seen this year, and that's coming from a complete Les Mis addict who thought nothing would top that movie. I thought the direction in Argo was wonderful, and it deserves all the accolades it's getting.

At least Affleck still has a decent chance of walking away with an Oscar as he'll get one if Argo wins Best Picture.


As for hints from last night, not much new I don't think: Daniel Day-Lewis could have written his speech weeks ago, Anne Hathaway could have been working on hers since the SAGs (it'll be as much of a shock as Juliette Binoche winning [though I don't think that was undeserved, I'm just talking about opinion at the time] if she loses now).

Christoph Waltz may well get Supporting Actor, it's strange how much momentum Tommy Lee Jones has lost in that category. I still don't think he's entirely out of it though. Best Actress is still the most open. I don't think Riva has a hope at the Oscars, it'll be Lawrence or Chastain, but which one is slightly less clear. I still think Jennifer Lawrence should be slight favourite.

Best Picture will be Argo or Lincoln, hopefully the former, but considering its the Academy, it could well be the latter. Les Mis and Life of Pi will split the technical awards (with Anna Karenina possibly grabbing Costume Design) but neither has much of a realistic chance at the main prize. Best Director is anyone's guess.

[abrightyz]

my predictions


BEST PICTURE
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

BEST ACTRESS
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Behn Zeitlin, "Beast of the Southern Wild"
Michael Haneke, “Amour”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits”
“Wreck-It Ralph”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Amour”
“A Royal Affair”
“No”
“Kon-Tiki”
“War Witch”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Anna Karenina"
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“Les Miserables”
“Lincoln”
“Mirror Mirror”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”


BEST FILM EDITING
“Argo”
“Life of Pi
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Miserables”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Before My Time” from "Chasing Ice"
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from "Ted"
“Pi's Lullaby” from "Life of Pi"
“Skyfall” from "Skyfall"
“Suddenly” from "Les Miserables"

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”


BEST SOUND EDITING
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST SOUND MIXING
“Argo”
“Les Miserables"
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall"

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel's The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

[rachelright]

I think this video pretty much sums up what will most likely happen
We all know Daniel Day Lewis will win Best Actor and Anne Hathaway will win Best Supporting Actress so its just the others now really..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWwTsyT-YHw#

[Muttley76]

Originally Posted by Mystical123

I disagree entirely about Argo as well, best film I've seen this year, and that's coming from a complete Les Mis addict who thought nothing would top that movie. I thought the direction in Argo was wonderful, and it deserves all the accolades it's getting.

Indeed, as Lincoln is defined by it's acting, Argo is defined by it's editing and direction. Which is what makes the oscar snub all the odder. The fact it has won so many films for direction underscores that. It actually would have been more logical for Lincoln not to get a best director nod out of the two, ironically enough....

And the voting for many of the awards it won was done BEFORE the oscar nominations were even announced in any case.

Christoph Waltz may well get Supporting Actor, it's strange how much momentum Tommy Lee Jones has lost in that category. I still don't think he's entirely out of it though.

I think it will go to Waltz. And tbh, i think deservedly, because he almost winds up feeling like the lead actor in Django by virtue of stealing practically every scene he is in. Tommy Lee Jones is very good in Lincoln, but doesn't really make quite the same impact.

Best Actress is still the most open. I don't think Riva has a hope at the Oscars, it'll be Lawrence or Chastain, but which one is slightly less clear. I still think Jennifer Lawrence should be slight favourite.

I tend to think that the oscars will lean towards Riva, for much the same reason they leaned towards Plummer last year....

Best Picture will be Argo or Lincoln, hopefully the former, but considering its the Academy, it could well be the latter.

If Lincoln does win best picture after winning practically nothing outside of lead actor it will have to be another crash scenario, but i don't think it will happen.

Les Mis and Life of Pi will split the technical awards (with Anna Karenina possibly grabbing Costume Design) but neither has much of a realistic chance at the main prize.

I still think Lee has a shot at Best Director, because of the Affleck cleaning up elsewhere, no one really knows how much support Spielberg really has for Lincoln, and given the sheer scale of the challenge Lee faced bring Pi to the screen, that may swing some votes his way.

[Paradise_Lost]

Originally Posted by Mystical123

it'll be Lawrence or Chastain, but which one is slightly less clear. I still think Jennifer Lawrence should be slight favourite.

I'm surprised people think Chastain is a real threat. She hasn't won any of the big lead up awards really. She's third among many oddsmakers now. Riva has a better shot. Lawrence has been winning most of the big awards up until the BAFTAS.