[Katsuya]

So, since this tends to get talked about a lot in the other thread, I thought it might be worth throwing a betting/odds thread out there. They're not just good for gambling, of course, since they're also a good indication of where people are putting money across the board and which countries are likely to do well come Malmo.

Eurovision Winner (best odds available, according to Oddschecker)
Azerbaijan - 8/1
Denmark - 9/1 (shortening all the time, too)
Russia - 11/1
Armenia - 12/1
Greece - 14/1
Germany - 14/1
Norway - 16/1
Sweden - 16/1
Serbia - 16/1
Estonia - 18/1
Georgia - 20/1
Romania - 20/1
Ukraine - 25/1
Italy - 25/1
France - 28/1
Finland - 33/1
Moldova - 33/1
Croatia - 33/1
Spain - 40/1
Cyprus - 40/1
Ireland - 40/1
UK - 40/1
Slovenia - 40/1
Latvia - 40/1
Hungary - 50/1
Austria - 50/1
Belarus - 50/1 (but goes as low as 16/1)
Israel - 50/1
Malta - 50/1
Netherlands - 66/1 (goes as low as 25/1)
Bulgaria - 66/1
Macedonia - 66/1
Montenegro - 66/1
Switzerland - 80/1 (goes as low as 40/1)
Iceland - 80/1
Lithuania - 100/1 (as low as 40/1)
Albania - 100/1 (as low as 40/1)
San Marino - 100/1
Belgium - 250/1 (as low as 33/1)

Countries who have already selected and have had their songs played are in bold; countries with known artists are in italics.

I'll keep this updated every week or so, when we know more and more songs.

[MissMidgard]

I'm still completely baffled as to why Azerbaijan is the favourite. Do we know anything about an artist or song yet?!

[Katsuya]

Melodi Grand Prix odds
Margaret Berger - 13/20
Adelen - 4/1
Sirkus Eliassen - 8/1
Gromth - 10/1
Datarock - 14/1
Annsofi - 16/1
Gaute - 25/1
Fjellfolk - 25/1
Vidar Busk - 34/1
Lucky Lips - 50/1

[Katsuya]

Originally Posted by MissMidgard

I'm still completely baffled as to why Azerbaijan is the favourite. Do we know anything about an artist or song yet?!

Azerbaijan are the new Greece; guaranteed to do well whether it's deserved or not. I highly, highly doubt they'll win again though, especially if the producers can help it.

[penguinperson]

Originally Posted by MissMidgard

I'm still completely baffled as to why Azerbaijan is the favourite. Do we know anything about an artist or song yet?!

They have the longest top 10 record and top 5 record. If you're to blind bet they're the ones to pick

[Markyd10]

Originally Posted by MissMidgard

I'm still completely baffled as to why Azerbaijan is the favourite. Do we know anything about an artist or song yet?!

Probably their previous good results and their 'support' () from some of the smaller countries.

[Chickens hit]

Originally Posted by MissMidgard

I'm still completely baffled as to why Azerbaijan is the favourite. Do we know anything about an artist or song yet?!

Well, the song will be from Sweden, but the performer is yet to be decided.

Maybe the odds are based on the past few years performance of the individual countries, which seeing as Azerbaijan have been in the Top 10 every time might explain their position at the top of the odds.

[MissMidgard]

^ That all makes sense. Thanks, guys.

[phill363]

our odds baffle me as well, not sure why we are so low but ah well.

I think Azerbaijan will suffer from the last years host curse this year so not sure why they are favourite, seems reckless to have a punt on them at those odds.

[penguinperson]

Going to add where we have heard all songs with a ****

Originally Posted by Katsuya

Eurovision Winner (best odds available, according to Oddschecker)
Azerbaijan - 8/1
Denmark - 9/1
Russia - 11/1
Armenia - 12/1
Greece - 14/1******
Germany - 14/1 ******
Norway - 16/1 *****
Sweden - 16/1
Serbia - 16/1
Estonia - 18/1 ******
Georgia - 20/1 **(sort of**
Romania - 20/1
Ukraine - 25/1
Italy - 25/1
France - 28/1
Finland - 33/1 *****
Moldova - 33/1 ***the main contenders
Croatia - 33/1
Spain - 40/1 *******
Cyprus - 40/1
Ireland - 40/1
UK - 40/1
Slovenia - 40/1
Latvia - 40/1 ********
Hungary - 50/1 ******
Austria - 50/1 *******
Belarus - 50/1 (but goes as low as 16/1)
Israel - 50/1
Malta - 50/1
Netherlands - 66/1 (goes as low as 25/1)
Bulgaria - 66/1
Macedonia - 66/1
Montenegro - 66/1
Switzerland - 80/1 (goes as low as 40/1)
Iceland - 80/1
Lithuania - 100/1 (as low as 40/1)
Albania - 100/1 (as low as 40/1)
San Marino - 100/1
Belgium - 250/1 (as low as 33/1)

Countries who have already selected and have had their songs played are in bold; countries with known artists are in italics.

I'll keep this updated every week or so, when we know more and more songs.

[penguinperson]

Originally Posted by phill363

our odds baffle me as well, not sure why we are so low but ah well.

I think Azerbaijan will suffer from the last years host curse this year so not sure why they are favourite, seems reckless to have a punt on them at those odds.

I think these are the most interesting bets left and I think the winner will come from one of these at the moment

Azerbaijan - 8/1
Russia - 11/1
Armenia - 12/1
Sweden - 16/1
Serbia - 16/1
Romania - 20/1
Italy - 25/1
Ireland - 40/1
UK - 40/1
Israel - 50/1
Netherlands - 66/1 (goes as low as 25/1)

[Katsuya]

I'm pretty sure Greece were a lot higher up until recently, so I don't know if their slide down is as a result of the songs being released or not.

UMK odds
Mikael Saari: 9/10
Dianda: 7/4
Krista: 7/4
Arion: 5/2
Great Wide North: 11/4
Last Panda: 7/1
Elina: 8/1
Lucy Was Driving: 8/1

Probably accurate to just how tight and unsure the entire thing is. Diandra's probably the best shot at those odds.

[stanld03]

Maybe Azerbaijan are expected to do well as Turkey's not participating, so they'll get the Turkish diaspora votes.

[Jaccobabe]

NL at 66/1 is a very good bet considering the song is very good, and a known artist, and it might get jury votes like Italy did in 11.

[penguinperson]

Irish odds lol

Zoe Bohorquez 2/1,
Aimee 9/4,
Ryan Dolan 5/2,
Kasey 11/4,
Inchequin 10/1

[Saturn]

Originally Posted by stanld03

Maybe Azerbaijan are expected to do well as Turkey's not participating, so they'll get the Turkish diaspora votes.

Running Scared didn't get any points from Germany when Turkey failed to make the final so I don't think it has that much effect.

They've lost their 12 from Turkey as well.

[Katsuya]

So, something happened in the past day, because the odds at the stop have shifted considerably;

Denmark - 8/1
Armenia - 12/1
Azerbaijan - 12/1

Denmark's odds go as low as 6/1 now.

[most_haunted]

Anyone got the latest MGP odds? Come on Adelén!!!

[phill363]

MGP odds on William Hill

Margaret Berger 4/6
Adelen 4
Sirkus Eliassen 5
Gromth feat Emil Solli-Tangen 10
Datarock 14
Annsofi 16
Fjellfolk 25
Gaute Ormasen 25
Vidar Busk 33
Lucky Lips 50

Looks like its a shoe in for Margaret

[most_haunted]

I really hope not! Still rooting for Adelén over here. 'Bombo' is an absolute summer anthem.

[contejas]

Originally Posted by most_haunted

I really hope not! Still rooting for Adelén over here. 'Bombo' is an absolute summer anthem.

Forget Bombo -- it's Sirukus all the way...

[Katsuya]

Revised odds for UMK:

Diandra - 2/1
Mikael Saari - 9/4
Great Wide North - 5/1
Arion - 9/2
Krista - 5/1
Lucy Was Driving - 39/1
Elina - 34/1
Last Panda - 34/1

Saari is still favourite on quite a few sites though.

[QwaarJet]

Originally Posted by most_haunted

I really hope not! Still rooting for Adelén over here. 'Bombo' is an absolute summer anthem.

My hopes will for sure be behind Margaret tomorrow. Never understood the love for "Bombo". It's just noise to me, but then again I don't really like these summer dance anthems at all.

[Jaccobabe]

Margaret Berger 1,65
Adelen 3,50
Sirkus Eliassen 5,50
Gromth feat. Emil Solli-tangen 10,00
Datarock 15,00
Annsofi Pettersen 17,00
Gaute Ormåsen 22,00
Fjellfolk 25,00
Vidar Busk 30,00
Lucky Lips 50,00

From Unibet. Margaret in the lead, but Adelen closer than before.

Plumbo were the big favourites last year, so I guess anything can happen.

Last year was much closer though. I would be very surprised if any of the top3 don't win...

I do think we might get a shock in the superfinal though.

Like Vidar Busk

[MissMidgard]

If we're having a shock in Norway, it better be Fjellfolk.