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2013's box office dropping massively from 2012


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Old 07-03-2013, 21:55
Dr. Linus
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For those of you who follow box office, you'll doubtless now that 2013 has so far been an atrocious year even for what were hoped to be big hitters - Jack the Giant Slayer has bombed spectacularly, while A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, The Last Stand, Movie 43 and Bullet to the Head have all been huge disappointments. This is, of course, due to the quality of the movies being released - all of these films have been absolutely slated by critics and publics alike.

The rest of the year is still supposed to be really big, but I'm really struggling to see it. Iron Man 3 will do well but it'll be nothing compared to The Avengers, The Hobbit 2 won't be as big as the first, and the same goes for The Hunger Games. Star Trek 2 will be a big hit but not an enormous one. And the rest of the release schedule is full to the brim with unknown quantities like Oblivion, Pacific Rim, The Croods and After Earth.

I don't see why it's any surprise that box office is disappointing this year - for one thing, 2012 was a spectacular year for big releases, possibly the best ever, and there was genuinely something for everyone in most months. This year just doesn't have the appeal. Also, the quality of releases just doesn't seem to be the same this year. I'll eat my hat if any of the sequels listed above are as good as their predecessors, and the new stuff just lacks anything new and clever so far. So I'm not at all surprised.

What does everyone else make of it all?

And as a side note, it's really frustrating that 2014's the exact opposite - it's going to be far, faaaarr too full of big blockbusters for anything to break out, and 2015 looks insane already. Could they really not have had some of that goldmine ready for this year?
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Old 07-03-2013, 23:18
Rocketpop
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You have things like....

Man of Steel.
Fast and furious 6
Monsters University.
At Worlds End.
The Lone Ranger.
Hangover 3.
Ender's Game.

That could all do decent box office, but yeah you are really missing a major critic proof billion dollar movie this year.
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Old 07-03-2013, 23:45
Yuffie
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Well you don't need to follow the box office results to know that this year is nowhere near as big as last year. The quality of films out in the past two months has been awful, just awful. I'm usually one to head off to the cinema and see whatever. But I'm not doing that this year because everything thats out is rubbish (at least doesn't interest me in the slightest).

But there is lots more big ones to come. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, I'm getting really excited. I'll mirror that list above me ( and theres far more great looking movies on the eway). Possibly not as good as last year but some great looking films nonethe less.


On a side note OP, I'm quite looking forward to those "unknown quantities". Don't get me wrong I love my franchises, but its nice to see a blast of solo films too.
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Old 08-03-2013, 00:14
Johnny Clay
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Doom-mongering already?

I think in this early part of the year there's been an above average focus on the Academy contenders. Most have done extremely good business, with Les Mis and Life of Pi reaching blockbuster status.

However, this is often a doldrums time of the year, and I don't think too much was expected of some of the recent releases - they're mostly low to mid budget anyway. True, Die Hard is sinking in the US and so is Jack the Giant Slayer (a sure-fire bomb anyway?). Both may save face abroad though, which is how the studios have to think these days.

Last year was exceptional - four billion dollar films released. Wow, for sure, but out of them two were actually unexpected - Avengers and Skyfall both went some way above industry predictions. You really can't count on that sort of thing happening this year, so I don't think 2013 is expected to perform as well.

But looking at the schedule, it's actually a quite interesting year. Doubtless the franchise entries will all perform as expected, but it's the unknown quantities high in the mix (Gatsby, World War Z, Pacific Rim etc), that may surprise us. It might - might - be a quality year for big releases.

At this point I'd say the big winner will be Man of Steel. The early word is good, and come its release Warners should've made some announcement about Justice League to gear fans up further.
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Old 08-03-2013, 00:17
Dr. Linus
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You have things like....

Man of Steel.
Fast and furious 6
Monsters University.
At Worlds End.
The Lone Ranger.
Hangover 3.
Ender's Game.

That could all do decent box office, but yeah you are really missing a major critic proof billion dollar movie this year.
Well of those you've listed, Monsters University is a guaranteed hit, I'll admit that (and I'm really looking forward to it). But Man of Steel in particular is being massively overestimated IMO (I'm not sure the casual moviegoing public are that aware of it at the minute), and Lone Ranger is a really enormous risk if the budget rumours are to be believed. I guess we'll see though, all those films have great potential, can't deny that.

Well you don't need to follow the box office results to know that this year is nowhere near as big as last year. The quality of films out in the past two months has been awful, just awful. I'm usually one to head off to the cinema and see whatever. But I'm not doing that this year because everything thats out is rubbish (at least doesn't interest me in the slightest).

But there is lots more big ones to come. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, I'm getting really excited. I'll mirror that list above me ( and theres far more great looking movies on the eway). Possibly not as good as last year but some great looking films nonethe less.


On a side note OP, I'm quite looking forward to those "unknown quantities". Don't get me wrong I love my franchises, but its nice to see a blast of solo films too.
Oh, I agree on the new films. From a box office perspective it's not a great position to be in because it means a large proportion of the schedule consists of gambles that could go basically any way, and I think there's a lot of dross among the pack. But I do think it's going to be a good year for establishing new franchises, some sleeper hits seem likely. No mega numbers this year though. I think Iron Man 3, Hunger Games, and The Hobbit are the only films with any serious chance of hitting a billion and I'd be very surprised if any of them actually do it. It'll certainly be an interesting year though, that's for sure!
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Old 08-03-2013, 00:21
Barry Wilson
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Wait until the summer blockbusters are released.

Some huge movies scheduled.
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Old 08-03-2013, 00:23
Dr. Linus
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Doom-mongering already?

I think in this early part of the year there's been an above average focus on the Academy contenders. Most have done extremely good business, with Les Mis and Life of Pi reaching blockbuster status.

However, this is often a doldrums time of the year, and I don't think too much was expected of some of the recent releases - they're mostly low to mid budget anyway. True, Die Hard is sinking in the US and so is Jack the Giant Slayer (a sure-fire bomb anyway?). Both may save face abroad though, which is how the studios have to think these days.

Last year was exceptional - four billion dollar films released. Wow, for sure, but out of them two were actually unexpected - Avengers and Skyfall both went some way above industry predictions. You really can't count on that sort of thing happening this year, so I don't think 2013 is expected to perform as well.

But looking at the schedule, it's actually a quite interesting year. Doubtless the franchise entries will all perform as expected, but it's the unknown quantities high in the mix (Gatsby, World War Z, Pacific Rim etc), that may surprise us. It might - might - be a quality year for big releases.

At this point I'd say the big winner will be Man of Steel. The early word is good, and come its release Warners should've made some announcement about Justice League to gear fans up further.
I'm really quite sceptical about that whole project. The franchise would have to take a really enormous leap to be one of the year's big winners, and I'm not sure there's enough goodwill left for that to happen. But as you say, Skyfall managed it by doubling the previous two entries' gross, so it's certainly possible. I just don't see Justice League being the next big thing though. It depends entirely on Man of Steel being a big hit, not to mention that two years is an awfully short amount of time to get the universe going properly - combine that with the ridiculous line-up for 2015 and I can't see it coming out that year. But I digress!

Otherwise, all good points, yes. I suppose you're just a bit more optimistic about casual moviegoers taking the plunge on tricky sells than I am.
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Old 08-03-2013, 02:11
So 3008
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If you had asked me at the start of last year which films I thought without a doubt would cross the billion dollar mark, I would have immediately have said The Hobbit and The Dark Knight Rises with absolute certainty. I can't do the same this year I have to say. The Desolation of Smaug is perfectly likely I guess but because of the mixed reviews of it's predecessor, and the fact The Hobbit only just scrapped a billion itself, I also wouldn't be surprised if it missed out.

However on the other hand I would also never have guessed that The Avengers or Skyfall would gross so much either; Skyfall especially was a total surprise.

I don't think it's in anyway a certainty but I do think it's possible that Iron Man might be able reach a billion. It was already a very successful franchise and now that it's the first follow up to the juggernaut that was The Avengers, I do think it's got a good chance of being the first billion dollarer of the year. Of course a major factor will be how well the film is received as well; if there was one thing Skyfall and Avengers had in common it was that they were both remarkably acclaimed.

A much less likely pick but also a possibility in my opinion is Star Trek. Now I know it's an extremely large jump from $400m to $1bn but it can be done (Batman Begins to Dark Knight being a prime example), and again it'll be down to how well reviewed the film is but there is seems to be some major hype for this film.

Now not on the billion dollar scale (nowhere near) but I do think, judging by it's early screening reviews, Man of Steel is going to be a big success. Catching Fire, The Hangover III, Monsters Inc are obviously going to be massive hits, and I'm getting feelings of John Carter levels of failure towards The Lone Ranger.
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Old 08-03-2013, 02:20
Rowan Hedge
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Wait until the summer blockbusters are released.

Some huge movies scheduled.
If we get a cracking summer then takings will plummet, not impressed with any upcoming release and i dont ever foresee stepping foot in the cinema ever again.

I'd rather wait a few months, pay BT a fiver for a movie rental and get drinks and pizza in and invite a few mates that waste silly money seeing the latest films in the cinema.
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Old 08-03-2013, 04:34
coolgirl
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I can see Elysium doing really well
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Old 08-03-2013, 04:52
Jonwo
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I'm really quite sceptical about that whole project. The franchise would have to take a really enormous leap to be one of the year's big winners, and I'm not sure there's enough goodwill left for that to happen. But as you say, Skyfall managed it by doubling the previous two entries' gross, so it's certainly possible. I just don't see Justice League being the next big thing though. It depends entirely on Man of Steel being a big hit, not to mention that two years is an awfully short amount of time to get the universe going properly - combine that with the ridiculous line-up for 2015 and I can't see it coming out that year. But I digress!

Otherwise, all good points, yes. I suppose you're just a bit more optimistic about casual moviegoers taking the plunge on tricky sells than I am.
I doubt Justice League will be ready in time for 2015, think a Man of Steel sequel plus possibly a solo DC film is more likely.
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Old 08-03-2013, 06:34
tommYHYH
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I can see Fast and Furious 6 being one of the highest grossing movies this year
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Old 08-03-2013, 09:34
Karis
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It is entirely doom-mongering as people forget Skyfall was the UK's biggest movie ever only a few months ago, so people are still flooding to the movies. And let's not forget Les Mis...

It's just that the quality of the movies you described were far from appealing. I can't imagine anyone would pay to see Jack the Giant Slayer or Hansel and Gretel...

But Iron Man 3 is around the corner and there are plenty of hopefully amazing movies coming up.

But saying attendance is down when there are no crowd pullers on show, is just a non-story.
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Old 08-03-2013, 11:02
Barry Wilson
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The Hobbit The Desolation of Smaug could be the only movie that will gross over $1 billion.

Star Trek Into Darkness, Iron Man 3, Fast and Furious 6, The Wolverine, Man of Steel will all make huge money but don't have the same appeal as last years mega blockbusters like The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises and Skyfall.
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Old 08-03-2013, 12:20
PR0J3CT
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This has been a strange year promotion-wise. Some films have been on the ball (Catching Fire is out in November but promoting now) whereas stuff like Hangover 3 is out in 2 months and just now put out a trailer.

Wolverine and Elysium are summer movies with no trailer. Sin City, Kick-Ass and 300 sequels are due this year with no trailer. Zeitgeist-y films like Inception started the promo machine a year before release, but like a lot of people say, there's nothing really standing out this year.

But we had a lot of lowkey surprises last year that didn't do billions, and this year looks fine in that respect. Evil Dead, Stoker, Maniac, Gravity, Spring Breakers, Trance, Pain and Gain, Upstream Color, Anchorman 2, the new Spike Jonze film.
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Old 08-03-2013, 13:02
jalal
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January saw admissions to UK cinemas hit a total of 17,081,70, which was a significant rise on 2012's figure of 13,554,900.

Did you read that OP, the box office attendance has been higher.

Don't take notice of the major films bombing in the US, look at the smaller films like Identity Thief, Silver Lining Playbook, which has made $100 mil domestically each. Safe Heaven $70 mil, escape from planet earth $45 mil etc;

February and March are always dull periods, but it will pick up in April for Iron Man 3 and 2 weeks Easter Holidays.
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Old 08-03-2013, 15:18
downtonfan
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Jesus we're only in March
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Old 09-03-2013, 14:17
WhyHelloWorld
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I reckon Catching Fire will be a lot more successful than The Hunger Games! People are a lot more interested in that now, and Jennifer Lawrence is a much bigger star right now! There seems to be more buzz about Catching Fire than there was The Hunger Games!
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Old 09-03-2013, 22:20
Gemma_Nancarrow
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I reckon Catching Fire will be a lot more successful than The Hunger Games! People are a lot more interested in that now, and Jennifer Lawrence is a much bigger star right now! There seems to be more buzz about Catching Fire than there was The Hunger Games!
I think there was a worry that Hunger Games would be a watered down kids version of the book, which is quite a graphic story. I think they tread that line very well and pushed the boundaries of the 12A rating. I hope they manage to do the same for the even darker themes of Catching Fire and I'm sure many non-book fans will watch it on the strength of the first film.
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Old 10-03-2013, 04:18
Jonwo
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The UK was one of the higher grossing markets for The Hunger Games with a 24m total which is impressive considering the books weren't as popular compared to the US,
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Old 10-03-2013, 09:50
theonlyweeman
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Transformers 4 comes out later this year does it not? It'll be shit but I'd be very surprised if it doesn't make a billion. It'll probably do so quicker than the Hobbit 2 (I will not give it it's full title, I shall address it like the cynical money making tool it is).

I think Star Trek Into Darkness, Man of Steel, Transformers 4, The Hobbit 2, Fast and Furious 6. and the Hangover 3 will do well. G.I. Joe 2 will do acceptable, but not spectacular.

I'm not sure about Pacific Rim, I think that may become an expensive, high profile failure, but I'd like to be proven wrong...
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Old 10-03-2013, 09:54
So 3008
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Transformers 4 comes out later this year does it not? It'll be shit but I'd be very surprised if it doesn't make a billion. It'll probably do so quicker than the Hobbit 2 (I will not give it it's full title, I shall address it like the cynical money making tool it is).

I think Star Trek Into Darkness, Man of Steel, Transformers 4, The Hobbit 2, Fast and Furious 6. and the Hangover 3 will do well. G.I. Joe 2 will do acceptable, but not spectacular.

I'm not sure about Pacific Rim, I think that may become an expensive, high profile failure, but I'd like to be proven wrong...
2014.
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Old 10-03-2013, 10:25
theonlyweeman
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Thanks.

I'm sure I read it was this year. I wasn't paying much attention, I've only seen the third one, and I never intend to see another...
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Old 10-03-2013, 11:01
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I think there was a worry that Hunger Games would be a watered down kids version of the book, which is quite a graphic story.
Hunger Games feels like a watered down version of Battle Royale for me despite the authors claims they have never heard of Battle Royale.
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Old 10-03-2013, 12:52
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For those of you who follow box office, you'll doubtless now that 2013 has so far been an atrocious year even for what were hoped to be big hitters - Jack the Giant Slayer has bombed spectacularly, while A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, The Last Stand, Movie 43 and Bullet to the Head have all been huge disappointments. This is, of course, due to the quality of the movies being released - all of these films have been absolutely slated by critics and publics alike.
You have answered your own point really - these movies weren't very good. I don't think the Last Stand, Movie 43 and Bullet to the Head were ever expected to be blockbusters anyway, although I am sure their studios would have hoped for them to perform better than they did.

I am sure the next installment of the Hunger Games will be huge (as these sort of franchises tend to get bigger film by film) and there are a few other movies which look like they can make a fortune.
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