Originally Posted by makeba72:
“I think he's more likely to win it because it's a by-election and not a general election. Turn out tends to be lower, which means that the hard-core UKIP voters (who are more motivated to turn out) will have a disproportionate effect.
It will be interesting, though.”
Clacton has primarily an elderly population,augmented with it being something of a dormitory town for the homeless, pushed into old holiday accommodation.
It also has a reasonable eastern european population.
My colleagues mum lives there,and she is very much old Labour but could defect.
I would be surprised if Carswell lost the seat at a GE to be honest,but as you say it will be interesting.