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Here we go again - Round 834 of Apple vs. Samsung/Google
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calico_pie
24-05-2013
Except for one thing.

The article does not dismiss market share.

The article argues that market share, and market share alone, is not a reliable indicator of a company's health.

Apple's profits have been rising year on year.

I would have thought for any company's health, profit would be more important than market share.

Who know what will happen in the future, but when you say something like "but pointless if you only end up selling one per year" doesn't seem applicable if its supposed to be in reference to Apple, as long as both iPhone sales and profits continue to increase.

I don't see how there is a trend away from Apple, as long as Apple sales continue to grow. And also, recent reports suggest that more Android users plan to switch to Apple than the other way around.

Article link

To stress again that this isn't a pissing contest. I just think any suggestion that Apple is on some sort of wane are greatly exaggerated and a little premature.
paulbrock
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“Apple's profits have been rising year on year.”

Except for last quarter of course...
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by paulbrock:
“Except for last quarter of course...”

I'm pretty sure profits grew. It was only the rate at which they grew that fell.
paulbrock
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“I'm pretty sure profits grew. It was only the rate at which they grew that fell.”

you may want to check that. Revenue up, profit down.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22274324

It has a lot to do with the relative 'spin' applied to Apple at the moment.
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Sorry, my mistake.

The point still stands though, insomuch as any company making nearly $10bn a quarter, where those profits are the lion's share of the market's total profits, probably isn't in as much trouble as the media has liked to portray.

And the original point of the article still stands - insomuch as market share alone is not a good indicator of a company's health.

Or do you agree with Stiggles that that article, and the concept of fair share profit analysis were nonsense?
swordman
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by alan1302:
“But I see Apple as like Mercedes - looking for profit whilst market share is not an important. Samsung are more like Ford, high volume, large market share.

It's like comparing Apples to Watermelons - too different companies looking at different markets and both doing very well in their own ways.

I think it was skewed out as Apple came first and took a huge chunk of the market but they were never going to keep it all to themselves.”

But you would be wrong to think that, apple and samsung compete in the very same market s3/i5 s4/5s are direct competitors to each other. One is on an upward curve one on a downward curve.
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by swordman:
“But you would be wrong to think that, apple and samsung compete in the very same market s3/i5 s4/5s are direct competitors to each other. One is on an upward curve one on a downward curve.”

One quarter's results, where profits were still nearly $10bn, doesn't make that much of a downward curve.
paulbrock
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“
And the original point of the article still stands - insomuch as market share alone is not a good indicator of a company's health.”

Market share is very important in the phone industry, particularly because so much hinges on the third-party and developer support for the products.
swordman
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“One quarter's results, where profits were still nearly $10bn, doesn't make that much of a downward curve.”

Still a curve downwards in relation to market share and profit simple as that. However if you wish to simply quote the present they are still doing well just not as well.

As I said previously a snapshot of apple performance without context one would be excused for thinking everything is rosy just as the article you linked to tries to portray. However the truth is that is business you can't just look at the present you have to predict years ahead and this is where the market is predicting trouble for apple.
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Its not a curve. Its currently one point on a line. One point on a line is not a curve, or a trend.
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by paulbrock:
“Market share is very important in the phone industry, particularly because so much hinges on the third-party and developer support for the products.”

No-one has said that market share isn't important. Just that its not the only measure of a company's health.

Do you want to argue that third party and developer support for iOS has some sort of significant decline?
paulbrock
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“Do you want to argue that third party and developer support for iOS has some sort of significant decline?”

I argue that would be one of the fears of investors.

Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“No-one has said that market share isn't important.”

And that seems exactly what that article is implying...
swordman
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“Its not a curve. Its currently one point on a line. One point on a line is not a curve, or a trend.”

It is fine for you to behave like an Ostrich it will be fatal for apple to do likewise.
Zack06
24-05-2013
Looks like Apple's own underhanded tactics have come back around to bite them where it hurts.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/...titrust-judge/
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by paulbrock:
“I argue that would be one of the fears of investors.

And that seems exactly what that article is implying...”

A fear of what may happen in the future isn't the same as what is currently the case.

I don't think that's what the article is saying at all. It simply says that market share alone doesn't tell the whole story.

As is illustrated by this simple, albeit extreme, example:

Question

Company A has 25% market share. Company Z has 75% market share. Which company is doing better?

Answer:

With market share alone, there’s simply no way to know or tell. Company A might be bringing in all the profits and company Z might be going bankrupt.
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by swordman:
“It is fine for you to behave like an Ostrich it will be fatal for apple to do likewise.”

I'm not behaving like anything.

I'm simply saying:

1. Reports of Apple being in some sort of serious trouble as of now, and based on current figures, are greatly exaggerated.

2. One point on line does not make a curve or a trend.
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by Zack06:
“Looks like Apple's own underhanded tactics have come back around to bite them where it hurts.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/...titrust-judge/”

The eBook thing isn't looking good since Jobs' emails to Murdoch surfaced.
IslandNiles
24-05-2013
On the subject of patents that might raise an eyebrow, I see that Twitter was recently awarded one for pull to refresh.
paulbrock
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“I don't think that's what the article is saying at all. It simply says that market share alone doesn't tell the whole story.”

No, it says that market share is one of the worst ways to evaluate the relative positions of competitors, and implies that everything is absolutely fine with a decreasing market share as long as you have a higher profit margin than your competitors, dances around making up a new figure of "ratio of profits to market share", or, as most people call it "profit margin", and suggests that's the all important figure to compare companies. Of course, this is all done in such way to 'explain' why Apple is fabulous and much better than other every company, and how those meanies saying Android is doing better are very naughty.

Actually, I can see why you like it.
Everything Goes
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“The eBook thing isn't looking good since Jobs' emails to Murdoch surfaced.”

Pengiun settled this week hand over $75 Million. They probably knew this would turn out baldly. Macmillan, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster and Hachette had all settled with the DoJ.

Apple will probably sue the DoJ if they rule against them as they operate above the law

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/05...ay_75m_ebooks/

The Murdoch story here:

Quote:
“The e-mail, from Steve Jobs of Apple to James Murdoch of News Corporation, reads as if one old sport were trying to cajole another into joining a caper: “Throw in with Apple and see if we can all make a go of this to create a real mainstream e-books market at $12.99 and $14.99.””


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/15/te...xing.html?_r=0
Stiggles
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“I was only agreeing with you.

I don't need to explain the true reasons (in any great detail) to know as well as you do that its obviously not as simple as you suggested.

But off the top of my head:

1. I'm not sure Apple have run out of ideas. For the least few years all we hear each year is the lame, lazy journalism about how the new iPhone is "evolution, not revolution" etc. And yet, put an iPhone 5 next to iPhone 3GS, and its world's apart.

And yes - that applies equally to the S4. For whatever reason, people's expectations have become wholly unrealistic.

2. Again, irrespective of the rights and wrongs of the lawsuits, its pretty difficult to dispute that smartphones, since the iPhone came out, have largely aped the iPhone.”

Is it really world apart? It looks very similar, runs the same OS which hasn't changed in years and very little features have been added either. Since 2007, the iphone has barely changed while others have.
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by paulbrock:
“No, it says that market share is one of the worst ways to evaluate the relative positions of competitors, and implies that everything is absolutely fine with a decreasing market share as long as you have a higher profit margin than your competitors, dances around making up a new figure of "ratio of profits to market share", or, as most people call it "profit margin", and suggests that's the all important figure to compare companies. Of course, this is all done in such way to 'explain' why Apple is fabulous and much better than other every company, and how those meanies saying Android is doing better are very naughty.

Actually, I can see why you like it.”

No, it says that if you only look at market share it is one of the worst ways to evaluate the relative positions of competitors.

I don't "like it", I agree with it.

Suppose we both run a business in the same market.

I have 75% of the market share.

You have 25% of the market share.

Based on that information and that information alone, who's business is doing better?
calico_pie
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by Stiggles:
“Is it really world apart? It looks very similar, runs the same OS which hasn't changed in years and very little features have been added either. Since 2007, the iphone has barely changed while others have.”

Its utterly absurd to say that the iPhone 5 is barely any different to the original iPhone.
paulbrock
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“No, it says that if you only look at market share it is one of the worst ways to evaluate the relative positions of competitors.”

It says everything that I posted. It doesn't just say "if you only look at market share".
Stiggles
24-05-2013
Originally Posted by calico_pie:
“Its utterly absurd to say that the iPhone 5 is barely any different to the original iPhone.”

Is it really?

The design of the case may be different but the Home button is in the same place. The same rancid and boring placement of icons on the screen which even you cannot deny hasn't changed since 2007.

Feature wise what else has been added? Precious little.
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