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UEFA Champions League on TV |
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#1276 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 546
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How is that nail on head? It's a disaster for the viewer, how many people will be able to afford 2 subscriptions? The loss of FTA isn't good either. I can't think of a single good thing about this deal for the viewer.
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#1277 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,163
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Quote:
What on earth went wrong with Sky's bid this time round? Why did they not bid more to keep these rights? I regard that as a strategic error because they had an opportunity to contain the challenge from BT and restrict BT Sport's growth.
Pay £300m, Show CL Sky 2015/16 Option B: Pay £0, Do not show CL Sky thinks that profits in 2015/16 will be higher under Option B and they are almost certainly right. It is very, very unlikely that subscriber numbers will fall to the degree required for Sky to have lower profits under Option B than Option A. Everything has a price. Sky will still have an incredibly strong sports portfolio in 2015/16 and there won't be anything like enough cancellations to make Option B less profitable than Option A. It's always worth keeping things in perspective. When BT won its PL rights and said it'll have 18 1st picks and they'll be free to BT broadband customers many people thought that would have a major adverse impact on Sky. It hasn't - in the first quarter of BT Sport's PL coverage Sky's revenues rose 7% and churn rose by 0.1 percentage points. For Option B to be less profitable than Option A churn would have to rise around 5 percentage points in 2015/16 - that isn't going to happen. |
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#1278 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 29,512
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Right, here are last season's Champions League ratings for ITV and Sky Sports - note, all are full programme averages. ITV are overnights, Sky are official, not that it makes much difference:
ITV 21/08/12 - 1.64 m ( 7.4 %) 18/09/12 - 4.70 m ( 20.2 %) 02/10/12 - 3.69 m ( 15.7 %) 23/10/12 - 4.50 m ( 19.1 %) 06/11/12 - 4.01 m ( 17.5 %) 20/11/12 - 3.75 m ( 15.5 %) 04/12/12 - 3.03 m ( 12.8 %) 12/02/13 - 4.15 m ( 18.4 %) 19/02/13 - 4.90 m ( 20.2 %) 05/03/13 - 9.07 m ( 35.3 %) 12/03/13 - 4.47 m ( 18.9 %) 02/04/13 - 4.24 m ( 18.4 %) 09/04/13 - 3.00 m ( 13.3 %) 23/04/13 - 4.09 m ( ???? ) 30/04/13 - 4.28 m ( 19.3 %) 25/05/13 - 3.50 m ( 17.7 %) Average = 4.19m (18.0%) Sky Sports (TUE SS2 / WED SS2 / WED SS4) - All other games Sky may have screened I have ignored, otherwise I would be here all day. ![]() 18/09/12 - 0.395 and 0.469 and 0.849 02/10/12 - 0.266 and 0.658 and 0.48 23/10/12 - 0.573 and 0.577 and 0.415 06/11/12 - 0.397 and 0.475 and 0.662 20/11/12 - 0.334 and 0.878 and 0.293 04/12/12 - 0.435 and 0.402 and 0.529 12/02/13 - 0.079 and 1.812 19/02/13 - ??? and 0.654 05/03/13 - ??? and 0.337 12/03/13 - ??? and 1.051 02/04/13 - 0.116 and 0.53 09/04/13 - ??? and 0.792 23/04/13 - N/A and 0.955 30/04/13 - N/A and 0.91 on SS1 25/05/13 - 0.571 Average = 352k [TUE, SS2] / 750k [WED, SS2] / 538k [WED, SS4] Formatting a tad messy, but you get the drift.
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#1279 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 491
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Quote:
Sky 2015/16 Option A:
Pay £300m, Show CL Sky 2015/16 Option B: Pay £0, Do not show CL Sky thinks that profits in 2015/16 will be higher under Option B and they are almost certainly right. It is very, very unlikely that subscriber numbers will fall to the degree required for Sky to have lower profits under Option B than Option A. Everything has a price. Sky will still have an incredibly strong sports portfolio in 2015/16 and there won't be anything like enough cancellations to make Option B less profitable than Option A. It's always worth keeping things in perspective. When BT won its PL rights and said it'll have 18 1st picks and they'll be free to BT broadband customers many people thought that would have a major adverse impact on Sky. It hasn't - in the first quarter of BT Sport's PL coverage Sky's revenues rose 7% and churn rose by 0.1 percentage points. For Option B to be less profitable than Option A churn would have to rise around 5 percentage points in 2015/16 - that isn't going to happen. as you state its unlikely to affect subs to the degree to eat into profit, however its worth noting that the figures will need looking at in relation to usual subscrber turn over [i presume thats an industry word 'churn?] |
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#1280 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,642
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I very rarely watch a full live Champions League game so it the highlights packages that interest me as thats the show i tend
to watch.As things stand just now only tuesday night has a highlights show with nothing for wednesday night If after the dust settles we have a highlights show for both nights maybe split between BBC and ITV then i'll be a happy bunny of course the worst sceanario would be the highlights fall to Sky |
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#1281 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,918
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The silver linings in this cloud for Sky are that they have 'in your face' advance notice that BT are really going to take them on, they now have a spare £500m to split between getting some new sports rights to replace what's been lost and to put the rest away in the war chest to keep hold of EPL rights and that BT Sport have perhaps shot their bow too early - that £900m would have better spent on getting more EPL rights off Sky.
Finally, it's worth stating that the rumours of Sky Sports' death are greatly exaggerated. I'd expect Sky to ramp up their telephony operations significantly - could they even start to rattle the cage regarding how Openreach operates? No idea how that works, but it's interesting. I don't buy into this idea that Sky are going to try to decimate BBC's rights. Sure, they will definitely got F1 exclusively, but I don't see Wimbledon as a major driver of subscriptions - it is, after all, only two weeks of action ultimately. The Six Nations deal last until 2017, by which time the PL auction wil have taken place. Sky already show rugby league's premier competition, the Super League, whilst snooker, atheletics and motorcycling are too niche to worry about. The only thing Sky might be interested in is the golf, and they won't pay a silly price for that either. If anything, Sky might even try to drop some things they don't view as essential in order to add to the warchest - cricket will not be going anywhere, but they have already lost out with the H Cup and Premiership rugby union, more save money there. Make no mistake, Sky will put everything into trying to reduces BT's PL games to rubbish or even nothing, they have to. |
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#1282 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 153
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Quote:
I very rarely watch a full live Champions League game so it the highlights packages that interest me as thats the show i tend
to watch.As things stand just now only tuesday night has a highlights show with nothing for wednesday night If after the dust settles we have a highlights show for both nights maybe split between BBC and ITV then i'll be a happy bunny of course the worst sceanario would be the highlights fall to Sky |
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#1283 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 202
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If it cost more money to come from my pocket to watch what I can already see at this present time it's bad news.
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#1284 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,642
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Well thats the Live champions League Games more or less gone for those that cant afford pay TV wonder how long it will be before the World cup and the Euro championships end up pay tv only??
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#1285 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 29,512
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Sure, they will definitely got F1 exclusively
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#1286 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,642
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Sky are all about Live stuff when it comes to football, they will 100% have no interest in a highlights package.
a decent highlights show was on sky sports Right after the final whistle?? |
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#1287 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,918
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Never say never if they are worried about subscribers switching to BT maybe some would stay if
a decent highlights show was on sky sports Right after the final whistle?? Quote:
Not so sure. The rights are currently until 2018 in any case, so won't be up for discussion yet.
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#1288 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: the wild world web
Posts: 28,132
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Have Sky all their eggs in the UK basket?
If so it is going to be tough for them to compete without that football monopoly. There could even now be more room for Virgin to expand |
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#1289 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,163
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One thing that probably happen is that Sky will challenge the European Commission's decision to split the Premier League rights between a minimum of 2 broadcasters. I would expect they challenge it, so that when the next contract comes up, they can go for 100% of the rights and cut BT off.
It only applied for 2007 to 2013. It didn't apply to the last auction for 2013 to 2016. It's the PL's choice how they do it and they will almost certainly stick with more than one broadcaster as they will make more money that way. |
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#1290 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,163
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Quote:
BIB
If people want them, they will find them.. It doesn't stop other channels on all EPG's getting decent audiences. Regarding the PL rights split, that expired a few years ago. The PL does it its self now If it had been on BBC1 or ITV1 it would have got around 3m. |
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#1291 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 8,397
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Man Utd v Real Sociedad got 4million viewers on Itv.
A match involving the same two teams a couple of weeks earlier which was shown on Sky Sports and also on Sky 1 got 1.7million. BT will be lucky to get 1m for most their games. |
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#1292 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,642
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regarding the highlights i see this on the uefa.com site Quote:
UEFA has announced a landmark deal with BT Sport for the 2015–18 UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League media rights in the United Kingdom. Live, delayed and highlights coverage of both competitions will be broadcast across pay channels BT Sport 1, BT Sport 2 and ESPN. Rights to highlights programmes have been awarded on a co-exclusive basis. Quote:
An announcement on the awarding of co-exclusive highlights rights in respect of both competitions will be made in due course. UEFA would like to take this opportunity to thank current live rights holders, Sky Sports and ITV, for their outstanding contribution to the club competitions.
What does co-exclusive mean in this regard?? That they must share it with another broadcaster??
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#1293 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,163
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Quote:
what was SKYs growth for the previous 10 years and the growth percentage of its subscriber based sports channels? thats really what need to be compared; before looking at a supposed bt impact.
as you state its unlikely to affect subs to the degree to eat into profit, however its worth noting that the figures will need looking at in relation to usual subscrber turn over [i presume thats an industry word 'churn?] But in broad terms Sky's overall satellite TV business has plateaued over the last 2 to 3 years after many years of strong growth before that. But my point is that - contrary to many predictions on DS in June 2012 when the PL rights auction result was announced - BT Sport has not had any material impact on Sky's business compared to how it had been performing in the recent period before BT Sport launched. |
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#1294 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,927
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...and the games they do show free-to-air will, in all likelihood, be of a far lower grade than the matches ITV have been screening as well.
You won't be seeing your Man City-Bayerns and your Arsenal-Dortmunds on the BT Sport Freeview channel. Quote:
I'm really interested now in finding out what quota of games BT have to release for FTA viewing, and at which stages of the comp they have agreed to release them. If it's merely group stages then it will have a massive impact. The group stages are fun but the comp really only properly kicks in when the knock-out stages start in February.
I would argue that this season so far there have been only 3 games involving English sides that would be considered 'big time' games. The Arsenal v Dortmund games and the Man City v Bayern game were big type games, but apart from that? Chelsea and Man United are in groups with no real big time games and I'm ignoring non-English games because there is no incentive for them to be FTA in the group stages because they wouldn't draw big audiences. It raises two questions. a. Are the rights really as valuable as BT think given that half of the comp involves relatively few big time games and the second half of the comp gives no guarantees of big games involving English sides? b. If the 'FTA' games are primarily the group games then will UEFA be happy with this given that the 'money' games will all be behind a paywall with small audiences and the resulting lack of 'watercooler' feel with the national population as a whole? Both the UEFA Champions League and Europa League finals will be free to air, and at least one of each participating British club's European fixtures will be shown free of charge per season. http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/news/...#ixzz2kAHwbrE3 As the comment below from elsewhere indicates, piracy will be the only ultimate winner this time round and is that what we really want? Quote:
"Wow this is a major bonus for the illegal stream sites. They must be rubbing their hands. Basically its like THEY have just won the champs league rights! Their advertising revenue will go through the roof."
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This is crucial for me, there is now absolutely no doubt about what BT are about, what they want, and what Sky have to do.
I'd expect Sky to ramp up their telephony operations significantly - could they even start to rattle the cage regarding how Openreach operates? No idea how that works, but it's interesting. I don't buy into this idea that Sky are going to try to decimate BBC's rights. Sure, they will definitely got F1 exclusively, but I don't see Wimbledon as a major driver of subscriptions - it is, after all, only two weeks of action ultimately. The Six Nations deal last until 2017, by which time the PL auction wil have taken place. Sky already show rugby league's premier competition, the Super League, whilst snooker, atheletics and motorcycling are too niche to worry about. The only thing Sky might be interested in is the golf, and they won't pay a silly price for that either. If anything, Sky might even try to drop some things they don't view as essential in order to add to the warchest - cricket will not be going anywhere, but they have already lost out with the H Cup and Premiership rugby union, more save money there. Make no mistake, Sky will put everything into trying to reduces BT's PL games to rubbish or even nothing, they have to. Quote:
Sky 2015/16 Option A:
Pay £300m, Show CL Sky 2015/16 Option B: Pay £0, Do not show CL Sky thinks that profits in 2015/16 will be higher under Option B and they are almost certainly right. It is very, very unlikely that subscriber numbers will fall to the degree required for Sky to have lower profits under Option B than Option A. Everything has a price. Sky will still have an incredibly strong sports portfolio in 2015/16 and there won't be anything like enough cancellations to make Option B less profitable than Option A. It's always worth keeping things in perspective. When BT won its PL rights and said it'll have 18 1st picks and they'll be free to BT broadband customers many people thought that would have a major adverse impact on Sky. It hasn't - in the first quarter of BT Sport's PL coverage Sky's revenues rose 7% and churn rose by 0.1 percentage points. For Option B to be less profitable than Option A churn would have to rise around 5 percentage points in 2015/16 - that isn't going to happen. Whilst the Sky sports portfolio has been weakened by this development, it's not a crucial weakening and the Sky Sports channels still have the great advantage in summer when compared with BT Sports' relatively weak offerings (which ought to be improved). That said, Sky would be damaged by an ongoing haemorrhage of significant sports rights and I'm sure that they're aware of that fact today and that this is something that they must address. |
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#1295 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,163
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BT CL cost = £299m per year.
At £20 per month = £16.67 exc VAT = £200 per year, you would need 1.5m incremental subscribers. Obviously far, far more complicated as have to factor in: - Broadband / phone sub implications - Other variable costs - box subsidies, customer service, marketing, admin When Sky does calculation re potential losses they also have to factor in that they would have two types of loss, ie: Sky Sports only losses @ £22 Total cancellations of entire Sky service @ £45+ up to £60 / £70 / £80. If average Sky cancellation was at £40 (ie weighted average of above) then they would have to expect over 750,000 cancellations just because of losing CL in order to have been persuaded to pay the £300m (ignoring broadband / phone impact). That's an incredible number - I would expect more like 200,000 to 300,000 incremental cancellations at most. |
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#1296 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Manchester
Posts: 144
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If you think that in 2-3 years time you'll only be paying an extra fiver per month for BT Sports then I commend your faith in them!
And what you say isn't a 'fact', it is your opinion based on 1 deal going to BT. I am no Sky fanboy and I have a record on here of being very positive about BT, but only when BT have 2 or 3 out of the following deals... Premier League Sunday 1st picks England Cricket England RU Tests Lions Tours Ryder Cup Super League Formula One ...will Sky be on the ropes. But not yet. |
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#1297 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 7,257
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Have Sky all their eggs in the UK basket?
If so it is going to be tough for them to compete without that football monopoly. There could even now be more room for Virgin to expand |
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#1298 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: London
Posts: 861
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Sky Sports (TUE SS2 / WED SS2 / WED SS4)
12/02/13 - 0.079 and 1.812 12/03/13 - ??? and 1.051 They are the only 2 games on Sky last season that topped a million viewers. All of these games were of course exclusive to Sky except the Final so the figures haven't been diluted due to FTA factors. These include big time group games like Man City v Dortmund, Man City v Real Madrid and Chelsea v Juventus, and of course 4 Man United group games, all under a million viewers. Imagine the kind of audiences BT will get for CL games behind a paywall if these are the kind of figures Sky got. |
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#1299 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Retford
Posts: 20,453
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From what I can foretell, the biggest losers so far will be terrestrial and FTA satellite viewers, in particular non BT YouView users whose boxes cannot pick up BT Sport's channels due to the encryption flag imposed upon them and all BT line rental payers who'll be subsidising the deals BT will implement to entice viewers and the obvious fact that line rental cannot be avoided by anyone who wants a BT phone line.
Time will tell come Monday to see what happens to BSkyB's share price to see if they lose out over time. |
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#1300 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,163
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To use a shipping analogy, there's been a dent in the hull but the ship hasn't been holed and there's no danger of either sinking or capsizing. Whilst the Sky sports portfolio has been weakened by this development, it's not a crucial weakening and the Sky Sports channels still have the great advantage in summer when compared with BT Sports' relatively weak offerings (which ought to be improved). That said, Sky would be damaged by an ongoing haemorrhage of significant sports rights and I'm sure that they're aware of that fact today and that this is something that they must address. Next PL rights are obviously absolutely fundamental - if Sky loses a significant proportion of its current PL rights then that will mean a major change in the market. |
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