Early days but Nibali doesn't look quite in top condition. Horner will also go top 6 but age may catch up with him, JRod won't last the pace so soon after the tour, Uran and especially Henao don't look quite there either yet. Sanchez, Kreuziger, Mollema too far back already.
Could be worth a punt on an outsider. Moreno, Roche and VV look the most likely and had easier tours but may still struggle in the third week.
Worth bets on Basso, Konig, DeClerq for Top 6 or 10 spots.
I'd tip Moreno at this stage.