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Leah the risk, Luisa the predictable player?
The_Bonobo
13-07-2013
Leah the risk, Luisa the predictable player?

Sir Saccharine will be wary of lawsuits but is Luisa not just journeywoman material?
thenetworkbabe
13-07-2013
Originally Posted by The_Bonobo:
“Leah the risk, Luisa the predictable player?

Sir Saccharine will be wary of lawsuits but is Luisa not just journeywoman material?”

Not if her turnover figures were correct and no one seems to have doubted them. No one has claimed what they are earning this series so we don't have a direct comparison with the past. She might be the most already successful wnner since Michelle though, if she takes more than Stella. In show numbers terms, she's been more successful on tasks than 5 of the 8 winners and more successful than the other two winners with this prize.
Steve9214
13-07-2013
Originally Posted by The_Bonobo:
“Leah the risk, Luisa the predictable player?

Sir Saccharine will be wary of lawsuits but is Luisa not just journeywoman material?”

Retail Bakery is in huge decline and there is overcapacity in the wholesaler end of the market.

Making pretty looking cupcakes is not the same as wholesaling to bakers, where you need a huge warehouse full of boxes of fat and sacks of flour.

If this is her idea, then Leah is not "the risk" in business terms - hers is the best option business wise.
The PR potential is the risk - but there are perfectly successful cosmetic clinics run by huge corporations.

If he invests in the bakery idea he will lose the lot.
I have been in baking for over 30 years, there have been no new businesses in wholesaling that I know of in the last 30 years, just declining and vanishing.
frally
13-07-2013
Originally Posted by thenetworkbabe:
“Not if her turnover figures were correct and no one seems to have doubted them. No one has claimed what they are earning this series so we don't have a direct comparison with the past. She might be the most already successful wnner since Michelle though, if she takes more than Stella. In show numbers terms, she's been more successful on tasks than 5 of the 8 winners and more successful than the other two winners with this prize.”

Turnover means nothing. You can turnover £1.5m and still lose money.

The two businesses that Luisa said had the highest turnover are both unincorporated and unregistered.

Thus, it would be difficult for the interviewers to independently verify her claims, save for the cupcake company (which also had the lowest turnover) previously discussed here http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1847042
fickrick
14-07-2013
Originally Posted by Steve9214:
“Retail Bakery is in huge decline and there is overcapacity in the wholesaler end of the market.

Making pretty looking cupcakes is not the same as wholesaling to bakers, where you need a huge warehouse full of boxes of fat and sacks of flour.

If this is her idea, then Leah is not "the risk" in business terms - hers is the best option business wise.
The PR potential is the risk - but there are perfectly successful cosmetic clinics run by huge corporations.

If he invests in the bakery idea he will lose the lot.
I have been in baking for over 30 years, there have been no new businesses in wholesaling that I know of in the last 30 years, just declining and vanishing.”

true certain types of bakers are in trouble but "high end" cup cakes are all the rage. She is based in the south east isn't she. Cup cakes are very popular for weddings (at the moment, thanks to Kate Moss) Her problem might be being able to diversify into other areas, Chocolatier, macaroons etc
The_Bonobo
14-07-2013
As Theo on Dragon's Den loves saying... Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity. :yawn:

I think he will go with Luisa because of the controversy with cosmetic surgery (or botox or whatever it is). To be honest, I was quite disappointed that Leah who seems like a secure person and is obviously very smart wants to do something of so little worth. Train to be a doctor then want to play on the obsession with supposed ideas of beauty. Basically exploiting people's insecurities.

As for Luisa, I am not sure if her business involves cup cakes but are they not a bit passe now?
Steve9214
14-07-2013
Originally Posted by fickrick:
“true certain types of bakers are in trouble but "high end" cup cakes are all the rage. She is based in the south east isn't she. Cup cakes are very popular for weddings (at the moment, thanks to Kate Moss) Her problem might be being able to diversify into other areas, Chocolatier, macaroons etc”

From what I could glean - and it was not 100% clear - her business plan is to create a business to supply ingredients etc to shops like hers.

I agree 100% that if her plan was to make more cupcakes in a high end shop (West End of London / tourist areas) - or expand her business somehow, then she would be onto a winner - particularly with all the publicity.

However, it appeared to me that she was proposing to enter the wholesale ingredients supply market
If she is targeting home baking via supermarkets - then the retail UK home baking ingredients supply is sewn up by a huge German conglomerate (Dr Oetker) and Silver Spoon, part of the UK based food conglomerate Associated British Foods (Twinings, Ryvita, Ovaltine, British Sugar, Kingsmill, Primark)

For the High street bakery market - there are 3 or 4 good companies already ingredients supplying Nationwide to bakeries, and they are struggling as there is overcapacity in the market leading to mergers.

Luisa is VERY clever if she is expanding her cupcake making operation - or completely deluded if she thinks she can enter the wholesale market.

We will see which it is !!!
Tracy_Klein
14-07-2013
Originally Posted by Steve9214:
“From what I could glean - and it was not 100% clear - her business plan is to create a business to supply ingredients etc to shops like hers.

I agree 100% that if her plan was to make more cupcakes in a high end shop (West End of London / tourist areas) - or expand her business somehow, then she would be onto a winner - particularly with all the publicity.

However, it appeared to me that she was proposing to enter the wholesale ingredients supply market
If she is targeting home baking via supermarkets - then the retail UK home baking ingredients supply is sewn up by a huge German conglomerate (Dr Oetker) and Silver Spoon, part of the UK based food conglomerate Associated British Foods (Twinings, Ryvita, Ovaltine, British Sugar, Kingsmill, Primark)

For the High street bakery market - there are 3 or 4 good companies already ingredients supplying Nationwide to bakeries, and they are struggling as there is overcapacity in the market leading to mergers.

Luisa is VERY clever if she is expanding her cupcake making operation - or completely deluded if she thinks she can enter the wholesale market.

We will see which it is !!!”

For what I understood it's something more like food colouring (the catalogue of colours is not very wide at the moment), flavour essences, toppings, cupcake wraps, buttercream... But, don't you feel like the best stuff is being imported from the US? (I mean if you are seeking more quality than the one that Dr. Oetker provides, which is not a lot...).

Americolor has the widest colour range. Betty Crocker sells in the UK but has only a couple of products, the supermoist white cake is not available here and it's the best choice if you plan to use dye in your sponge. The best cupcake wraps and decorations (IMO) are made by Culpitt (US)... etcetera
doive1231
14-07-2013
The problem with Leah's plan is that she would be a small fish in a big pond and the bigger players could find ways to undercut Leah on price in the short term and put her out of business. Undercutting can't always work.
Maxatoria
14-07-2013
Given LS is going to become a 50% stake holder if Leah or one of her staff ended up giving someone a trout pout that will take 6 months to go away causing that person many 100's of thousands in loss of sales (especially if it was a high volume sales person) or something equally easy to prove as loss of sales/earning would LS fancy having to deal with the backlash compared to someone saying my cupcake was a bit dry and all you do is give them a fresh box full or 3 and job done
Steve9214
14-07-2013
Originally Posted by Tracy_Klein:
“For what I understood it's something more like food colouring (the catalogue of colours is not very wide at the moment), flavour essences, toppings, cupcake wraps, buttercream... But, don't you feel like the best stuff is being imported from the US? (I mean if you are seeking more quality than the one that Dr. Oetker provides, which is not a lot...).

Americolor has the widest colour range. Betty Crocker sells in the UK but has only a couple of products, the supermoist white cake is not available here and it's the best choice if you plan to use dye in your sponge. The best cupcake wraps and decorations (IMO) are made by Culpitt (US)... etcetera”

This sort of thing - from one of the big 3 existing Bakery wholesalers.
http://www.bfpwholesale.com/sites/de...s_2013_web.pdf

Main problem is that that the European market is based on natural colours and flavours - whereas the US market is predominantly artificials.
NO large UK commercial baker would risk using artificials - no matter how good the colour is - the supermarkets DO NOT allow this.

The UK decorated Cake companies have immense problems with US licenses for cartoon characters as they insist on them being able to use pantones that are basically printers ink colours, and not achievable with natural colours.

Leah might be a "risk" with her botox - but one child getting an allergic reaction to a cupcake colour... will be splashed all over the tabloids methinks
The_Bonobo
15-07-2013
It sounds like both proposals come with certain risks. Maybe he should have gone with Jason... whatever his plan was...
Toggler
15-07-2013
Or Clougie's web estate agent, or Alex's legal thingy .... in fact for me reallyanyone/anything but these two.....
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