Been looking at the performances of the commercial PSB channels (ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5) to see their performances over the first 7 months of 2013.
ITV have done very well. Should the performance of the main channel remain flat for the remainder of 2013 (excluding +1), there will be no change. Including +1, if it stays flat, the channel will be up 0.6%.
Channel 4 have come out the worst. Should the main channel be flat (which I doubt because there is no Paralympics), C4 will be down 7.1% excluding +1 and 7.7% including +1. They need to increase their audience, on average, by around 18% excluding +1, and 17% including +1 to keep the averages of last year. The damage may already have been done.
Channel 5 has decreased, but nowhere near the levels of C4. If August to December is flat, then the main channel will be down 2.4% excluding +1 and 2.2% including +1. The average increase needed is 4.9% excluding +1 and 2.3% including +1 to maintain last year's averages.
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ITV is balancing itself out well. Where there is a decrease in 1 month, there is a sizeable increase in another. The summer has been pretty decent for them so far and with things like The X Factor, I'm A Celebrity, Downton, Vera, Benidorm, Doc Martin etc.., it looks like there in for a strong Autumn season. I'd be very surprised if there wasn't a year on year increase.
The damage has been done by C4 already. The weak start to the year means that they will have to have their strongest autumn since 2009 to balance themselves out, which does look improbable. Channel 4 has an ok looking Autumn slate, with Grand Designs and Homeland the two standout pieces. Location is back next Thursday (22nd August) and the sequel to Educating Essex (Educating Yorkshire) might pull people in. Big cloud over C4.
Channel 5 look pretty strong with Celeb BB and Under the Dome. They have a decent looking factual slate, and CSI:NY in its last series might do well. The problem will be can they keep up the strong performances of the last few months. If they can bag the Ashes highlights for the tests Down Under then that would be a coup and a half. If they focus enough, they might keep performing well.