DS Forums

 
 

BT Sports Channel (Part 2)


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 31-10-2013, 23:29
1andrew1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,981
One plus point is that although fibre adds didn't increase, 1/3 of fibre adds were new customers whereas before it was only 1/5.
I expect a lot of these were YouView customers making up the 70,000 net TV additions.
1andrew1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 31-10-2013, 23:34
1andrew1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,981
Good description of BT's strategy from Ovum analyst Emeka Obiodu today "So what Sky was doing before was to give broadband away for free or at a very cheap price, encouraging customers to believe that sports TV was the premium product. Now what BT has done is to turn that narrative on its head. So BT is now saying to customers, sports TV is the free commodity. Broadband, especially our Infinity fibre products, is the premium product."
1andrew1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31-10-2013, 23:59
mlt11
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,160
Further breakdown: "estimates based on company guidance" of BTS homes:

Sky - 1.3m (free or pay - split unknown)
BT TV (ie BT TV box) - 450,000 (ie about half of the 900,000 BT TV homes)
BT without a TV - 450,000 (ie online / app only)
Sub total - 2.2m
VM - 1.8m
Grand total - 4m

http://www.theguardian.com/media/201...cess-rival-sky
mlt11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 07:16
derek500
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 20,370
Further breakdown: "estimates based on company guidance" of BTS homes:

Sky - 1.3m (free or pay - split unknown)
BT TV (ie BT TV box) - 450,000 (ie about half of the 900,000 BT TV homes)
BT without a TV - 450,000 (ie online / app only)
Sub total - 2.2m
VM - 1.8m
Grand total - 4m

http://www.theguardian.com/media/201...cess-rival-sky
These are the viewers who are always being overlooked when BT Sport's ratings are discussed. I expect only a tiny percentage in BARB homes are attaching their devices to the TV to be counted.
derek500 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 08:05
Radiomike
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,408
These are the viewers who are always being overlooked when BT Sport's ratings are discussed. I expect only a tiny percentage in BARB homes are attaching their devices to the TV to be counted.
Surely the same would apply to viewers who watch Sky Sports through Sky Go etc.

Do online viewers count in BARB figures in any event?

The fact remains that with 4m potential viewers (or is that households in which case the number of potential viewers is much higher) the ratings are generally pretty disappointing. The existence of BT Sport has clearly had an initial effect on Broadband retentions, take up etc but will that continue if it turns out that most of those who have access to BT Sport hardly or never watch it. At the moment they are still in the honeymoon period. How many more people who haven't already signed up will do so. Both setanta and ESPN peaked quite early and then struggled to attract significant additional numbers.

I speak as a new BT Infinity customer and a BT Sport subscriber (although now only paying for HD).
Radiomike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 09:33
PaulLFC
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,147
Analyst asked question re CL rights.

Patterson gave answer making various points - eg always planned to be number 2 not number 1, Sky very strong position, will be prudent, disciplined approach, examine all opportunities etc etc and then finished with these words:

"We don't need to necessarily gain any more rights to deliver what we need to with the channel"
I assume that will just be an attempt to make Sky think they aren't bothered about bidding (which won't work). If BT genuinely don't add any decent rights to their channels in the next few years and after the next Premier League auction they're left in the position they are now, having passed on NBA, NHL, Champions League and whatever other rights will be available in the next 2-3 years - then I wonder whether people will reconsider subscribing if they're paying - I'm paying at the moment and I don't know whether I'd be happy with what they have now rights wise for the long term - at the moment they're in the "these were the rights available to them so far" period.
PaulLFC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 09:37
derek500
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 20,370
Surely the same would apply to viewers who watch Sky Sports through Sky Go etc.

Do online viewers count in BARB figures in any event?
1) True, but Sky Go is an add on for subscribersj and on line viewing is a small percentage. For nearly a quarter of BT's activations/subscribers (excluding VM's passive ones) online is the only way to watch.

2) If connected to TV.
derek500 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 10:25
1andrew1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,981
The fact remains that with 4m potential viewers (or is that households in which case the number of potential viewers is much higher) the ratings are generally pretty disappointing. The existence of BT Sport has clearly had an initial effect on Broadband retentions, take up etc but will that continue if it turns out that most of those who have access to BT Sport hardly or never watch it. At the moment they are still in the honeymoon period. How many more people who haven't already signed up will do so. Both setanta and ESPN peaked quite early and then struggled to attract significant additional numbers.
4m households. Only 2.2m customers outside VM have signed up so great opportunity for BT to switch on more of its broadband customers especially as the nights draw in. Per loyalsince's point in post #2484 customers feeling they are getting value is more important than stark viewing figures for BT's business modl. It's a customer perception thing.
1andrew1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 14:47
mlt11
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,160
Who will have lost 99,000 subscribers? Is this bad news for TalkTalk then or are there sufficient smaller providers like EE/Orange and Virgin ADSL losing customers to enable TalkTalk to still maintain its customer base?
Just coming back to this question, EE/Orange have already announced that they had 10,000 net adds in the quarter - per link below.

So the table can now be updated as follows:

BT - up 156,000
Sky - up 111,000
EE/Orange - up 10,000
Rest of market - down 109,000
Total market - up 168,000

As you said, TalkTalk's numbers are out on 12th November. I'm reluctant to guess them but in the last 3 quarters they have had positive net adds of 10,000, 10,000 and 8,000 and they have previously said they have not been affected by BT Sport.

So if we had to guess I think TalkTalk is likely to be broadly flat or slightly up - if they are down at all I don't think they will be down a lot.

So the conclusion appears to be that it is all the other small ISPs who are losing customers in pretty large numbers (subject to seeing TalkTalk's actual numbers!!!)

http://www.ispreview.co.uk/review/top10_log.php
mlt11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 08:52
RichardRees
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,551
What happens long term going forward is key.

I said earlier that BT may have gained approx an extra 72,000 broadband subs because of BTS (post 2473). Let's assume that means 72,000 broadband subs with phone line and calls.

What is ARPU for BT broadband + phone combined? Don't know but say £40 per month? That would be £33.33 exc VAT = £400 per year.

72,000 @ £400 = £29m revenue per year (and that's not all 100% profit - there will be some incremental costs).

..... and BT Sport has annual running costs of £500m !!!!!!!

Of course BTS will also generate revenue through fibre upgrades, £12/£15 BTS subs, BT Vision / BT YouView subs and VM wholesale revenue.

But the big point to understand is that this is a very, very long term project. BTS needs to generate more in the region of 1 million extra broadband / phone subs to be worthwhile (even at this cost base).

I think 72,000 (approx) is an excellent start for the first quarter but it is very, very early days.

We won't know if BTS has been a success literally for years.
Is it somewhat more complicated, and marginal gains for BT a lot lower? For every switch (except from cable) BT's wholesale arm loses the wholesale revenue from the other supplier. It is somewhat complex (for me at least) to work out what the economics is where the line has been unbundled, but, in general, the gain to BT as a whole is a lot lower than the revenue from a switched customer. Marginal costs are significant in the calculation of the net worth to BY.
RichardRees is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 09:30
Radiomike
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,408
Just coming back to this question, EE/Orange have already announced that they had 10,000 net adds in the quarter - per link below.

So the table can now be updated as follows:

BT - up 156,000
Sky - up 111,000
EE/Orange - up 10,000
Rest of market - down 109,000
Total market - up 168,000

As you said, TalkTalk's numbers are out on 12th November. I'm reluctant to guess them but in the last 3 quarters they have had positive net adds of 10,000, 10,000 and 8,000 and they have previously said they have not been affected by BT Sport.

So if we had to guess I think TalkTalk is likely to be broadly flat or slightly up - if they are down at all I don't think they will be down a lot.

So the conclusion appears to be that it is all the other small ISPs who are losing customers in pretty large numbers (subject to seeing TalkTalk's actual numbers!!!)

http://www.ispreview.co.uk/review/top10_log.php
All of this just goes to show how you can twist statistics (not you but BT, Sky etc) to create a misleading headline. If your figures are correct then BT has 93% of net adds but then Sky has 66% of net adds and EE 6% of net adds. Those add up to 165% - clearly a nonsense.

The 93% figure claimed by BT implies that other companies share 7% between them. Clearly rubbish based on the Sky and EE figures and therefore misleading in that light.

The only relevant figure is the number of net adds and how that compares to previous quarters and other suppliers. The only relevant % figure is the % increase quarter on quarter as regards your own broadband customers.

The 93% quoted is headline grabbing but doesn't really reflect the overall market.

Indeed in % terms both BT and Sky have had similar growth levels in their most recent quarter.

Using your link if you look at BT's last 4 quarters the increases have been (in '000s) 122, 136, 95 and 156. So the most recent quarter was better than the one before but not spectacularly better than the previous two when there wasn't the same hullabaloo. The recent growth will just as likely be down to the special offers floating around as much as BT Sport.

For comparison the last 4 quarters for Sky have seen growth of 132, 152, 519 and 111. The 519 figure includes the gobbling up of 400,000 O2 customers included in that quarter so the real Sky figure was 119.

Comparing the various quarters Sky has gained in raw numbers more broadband customers than BT (10k, 16k and 24k) in the first 3 quarters but 45k less in the most recent quarter. That does show that the BT advertising campaign and the arrival of BT Sport has worked both to slow Sky's growth and to stop the narrowing gap in subscriber numbers between the two but has involved a massive ad and sports rights spend and promotions.

The more interesting figures might be those for the next quarter or two to see if the turnaround in momentum can be maintained. That is what BT needs to achieve in the longer term and on a consistent quarterly basis if it is to maintain its subscriber base lead over Sky. If next quarter Sky were to revert to beating BT in net adds then the BT strategy is in danger. If BT maintains a lead over Sky in net adds going forward then the strategy is working but how far it is working then has to be quantified and how far is the cost of BT Sport worth the gains.
Radiomike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 10:06
derek500
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 20,370
All of this just goes to show how you can twist statistics (not you but BT, Sky etc) to create a misleading headline.
Of course!!

Premier League audience share >70% above ESPN last year
If your viewing figures are low, go with a meaningless share figure. Less people watching TV Saturday lunchtimes so share is obviously going to be a lot higher than ESPN's Saturday evening slot.
derek500 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 10:10
Hup_73
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 301
Just as an aside, there's no Tim Lovejoy on BTSP on BT Sport at the moment - they've got Helen Skelton standing in, who is not only a great presenter (she knows her sport) but is looking absolutely fantastic this morning!!! Worth taking a look
Hup_73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 11:40
1andrew1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,981
BBC radio interview with Gavin Patterson, Chief Executive of BT being grilled on BT Sport here. No gentle questions!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24754202
1andrew1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 13:26
Ambassador
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Wooler, Northumberlandiana
Posts: 21,728
Do BT camera operators not own a cloth?
Ambassador is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 14:53
mlt11
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,160
Is it somewhat more complicated, and marginal gains for BT a lot lower? For every switch (except from cable) BT's wholesale arm loses the wholesale revenue from the other supplier. It is somewhat complex (for me at least) to work out what the economics is where the line has been unbundled, but, in general, the gain to BT as a whole is a lot lower than the revenue from a switched customer. Marginal costs are significant in the calculation of the net worth to BY.
Yes Richard, I agree entirely!

I did say in my previous post "(and that's not all 100% profit - there will be some incremental costs)".
mlt11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 15:03
mlt11
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,160
All of this just goes to show how you can twist statistics (not you but BT, Sky etc) to create a misleading headline. If your figures are correct then BT has 93% of net adds but then Sky has 66% of net adds and EE 6% of net adds. Those add up to 165% - clearly a nonsense.
Understand your point but I think the % figure is of some relevance - simply because (using hypothetical numbers) it's easier to get 40,000 net adds if the market total rises 100,000 (you have 40%) than it is to get 40,000 net adds if the market total rises 50,000 (which requires you to have 80%).

It can be misleading if you don't understand the numbers properly but in fairness these numbers aren't being looked at by the general public - they are being looked at by city analysts who will understand them.

And once you do understand them it's very simple - all it requires is an understanding that some companies will have a negative percentage.

Finally look at BT's graph of its % of net adds over the last two and a half years - it's remarkable how consistent the % is (up until this quarter) which I think indicates that it is a figure worth looking at - because it implies BT net adds have had a correlation with total market net adds (up until this quarter). Slide 24 (middle pane):

http://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperfor...213_slides.pdf

However I agree entirely with the rest of your post re the future - for BTS to be a success it has to keep on boosting BT's broadband/phone business - to justify BTS at this cost level BT needs very roughly an extra 1m broadband / phone customers and that will take many years (if it ever happens).
mlt11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 15:12
batdude_uk1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,134
Just as an aside, there's no Tim Lovejoy on BTSP on BT Sport at the moment - they've got Helen Skelton standing in, who is not only a great presenter (she knows her sport) but is looking absolutely fantastic this morning!!! Worth taking a look
To be fair, she was the only reason to watch Blue Peter for a while!
batdude_uk1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 17:32
bluesdiamond
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 8,501
Wonder if this is a one-off? Seems a bit strange to be running it alongside their Premier League offering.

If they have a contract to show games from this League, would be interesting if they showed the Monday night game.
But they normally show their Scottish match then (hang over from ESPN contract). Will have Scottish games until 2017 (?).

By the next contract will Sky and BT become 'overseas' broadcasters
bluesdiamond is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 20:55
mlt11
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,160
Is it somewhat more complicated, and marginal gains for BT a lot lower? For every switch (except from cable) BT's wholesale arm loses the wholesale revenue from the other supplier. It is somewhat complex (for me at least) to work out what the economics is where the line has been unbundled, but, in general, the gain to BT as a whole is a lot lower than the revenue from a switched customer. Marginal costs are significant in the calculation of the net worth to BY.
Richard, just coming back to your point - in a bit more detail:

If someone switches their broadband from another ISP to BT, BT Consumer division will still pay BT Wholesale division for the line etc so BT Wholesale's reported numbers will be unchanged.

So what it boils down to is the profit margin within BT Consumer division - the Consumer division's P&L having been charged with the payment to BT's Wholesale division.

So what is that profit margin?

The answer is we don't know precisely but we do know the overall EBITDA% of BT's Retail division (which is Consumer + Business; Consumer accounting for 50% of Retail).

BT Retail EBITDA is £429m on revenue of £1,843m - ie an EBITDA% of 23%.

Now, we don't have the numbers for Consumer and Business separately and of course within Consumer there is phone, broadband and TV (and TV will include all the BTS costs) but even so, allowing for all of that, we can see that the combined Phone + Broadband EBITDA is very unlikely to exceed about 50%.

If it was much higher than 50% the numbers overall just wouldn't fit - unless Business had negative EBITDA which seems very unlikely.

In reality, it's probably quite a bit below 50%. If you add back the numbers for BT Sport (EBITDA minus £100m), the overall Retail EBITDA% excluding BT Sport becomes 29%. Now maybe Business has smaller margins - I don't know - but very plausible that Consumer Phone + Broadband EBITDA doesn't exceed about 40%.

Interested in your thoughts as always!
mlt11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 21:27
NeilVW
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Cornwall
Posts: 8,565
What sort of all day share does BTS1 normally get on a Saturday?

The above comment if 2.2% had been correct suggested 2.2% was nearly double the normal figure. That in turn implies that the actual figure of 1.3% is pretty similar to normal - despite it being free to view.
I can give the last couple of weeks' figures:

Overnight all-day shares

Code:
Date         BT Sport 1  BT Sport 2  ESPN
Sat 19 Oct - 0.9%        0.1%        <0.05% [Newcastle v Liverpool]
Sun 20 Oct - 0.1%        <0.05%      <0.05%
Mon 21 Oct - <0.05%      <0.05%      <0.05%
Tue 22 Oct - <0.05%      <0.05%      <0.05%
Wed 23 Oct - 0.1%        <0.05%      <0.05%
Thu 24 Oct - 0.1%        <0.05%      <0.05%
Fri 25 Oct - 0.2%        0.1%        <0.05% [free weekend]
Sat 26 Oct - 1.3%        0.1%        0.1%   [Ars v C Palace, free weekend]
Sun 27 Oct - 0.4%        0.1%        0.1%   [free weekend]
Mon 28 Oct - <0.05%      <0.05%      <0.05%
Tue 29 Oct - <0.05%      <0.05%      <0.05%
Wed 30 Oct - 0.1%        0.1%        <0.05%
Thu 31 Oct - 0.1%        0.1%        <0.05%
Fri 01 Nov - 0.1%        <0.05%      <0.05%
http://www.channel4sales.com/data/ov.../November/2013

Helping to explain that 1.3% share, in Broadcast magazine it is reported that the overnight average audience for coverage last Saturday (26 October) of Arsenal v Crystal Palace on BT Sport 1 from 11:30 to 15:00 was 617,700 (7.0%).

It compares with the following ratings on Sky Sports 1 that weekend:

Sat 17:00-20:00 - Southampton v Fulham: 431,900 (2.3%)
Sun 12:30-15:30 - Sunderland v Newcastle: 1,093,600 (9.7%)
Sun 15:30-18:55 - Chelsea v Man City: 1,470,200 (8.4%)

and on the previous Monday (21 October):

Mon 19:00-23:00 - Crystal Palace v Fulham: 482,200 (2.2%)

All the above figures will be finalised in the BARB consolidated numbers released on Monday, after timeshift is added and the lower-rating adverts are stripped out.

With the proviso that BARB are not showing any BT Sport 1 data for 9-15 September, I believe that the final figure for Arsenal v Crystal Palace will be the highest audience on record for the fledgling channel, by quite a margin. Although perhaps not quite as high as one might have expected on a 'free weekend'.
NeilVW is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 21:57
RichardRees
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,551
If you add back the numbers for BT Sport (EBITDA minus £100m), the overall Retail EBITDA% excluding BT Sport becomes 29%. Now maybe Business has smaller margins - I don't know - but very plausible that Consumer Phone + Broadband EBITDA doesn't exceed about 40%.

Interested in your thoughts as always!
Thanks very much for that - I concur with your thoughts.

Note that BT have said they will split out BT Retail between consumer and business, but are unlikely to report in that way until their next financial year.
RichardRees is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 22:19
dazb
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: West Country
Posts: 2,904
Helen skelton Has to be the worst presenter ever so annoying as is matt Dawson who I hate anyhowe.
dazb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 23:13
mlt11
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,160
.............Helping to explain that 1.3% share, in Broadcast magazine it is reported that the overnight average audience for coverage last Saturday (26 October) of Arsenal v Crystal Palace on BT Sport 1 from 11:30 to 15:00 was 617,700 (7.0%)..............

With the proviso that BARB are not showing any BT Sport 1 data for 9-15 September, I believe that the final figure for Arsenal v Crystal Palace will be the highest audience on record for the fledgling channel, by quite a margin. Although perhaps not quite as high as one might have expected on a 'free weekend'.
Many thanks for all of that!

The overnight for Man Utd v Crystal Palace on 15 Sept was 480,000 which is the number I've used so far in the table I've been posting each week - hopefully we may get the official for that on Monday.

Assuming Man Utd v Crystal Palace isn't higher, the highest rating so far is 496,000 for Newcastle v Liverpool so as you say 617,700 is the highest by a very wide margin.

But, again as you say, it's debatable how good a figure that is given that it was a free weekend. My own view would be that it's so so - not bad but not great either.

Most people won't have been aware of the free weekend and the vast majority of casual viewers aren't going to stumble across even a live PL game on BT Sport given its EPG position and low prominence in newspapers and listings magazines etc.
mlt11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2013, 18:14
NeilVW
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Cornwall
Posts: 8,565
Many thanks for all of that!

The overnight for Man Utd v Crystal Palace on 15 Sept was 480,000 which is the number I've used so far in the table I've been posting each week - hopefully we may get the official for that on Monday.

Assuming Man Utd v Crystal Palace isn't higher, the highest rating so far is 496,000 for Newcastle v Liverpool so as you say 617,700 is the highest by a very wide margin.

But, again as you say, it's debatable how good a figure that is given that it was a free weekend. My own view would be that it's so so - not bad but not great either.

Most people won't have been aware of the free weekend and the vast majority of casual viewers aren't going to stumble across even a live PL game on BT Sport given its EPG position and low prominence in newspapers and listings magazines etc.
Thanks - I missed that you had the overnight for 15 September. Yes, the official for it should be confirmed in the six-week BARB amendment cycle tomorrow. With regard to the week of 21-27 October, it will be interesting to see the reach figure and weekly share for BT Sport 1 tomorrow as well.

Yesterday BT Sport 1 had an all-day share of 0.9%, the same as two weeks ago.

http://www.channel4sales.com/data/ov.../November/2013

Newcastle v Chelsea at lunchtime peaked at 826k (8.3%) for BT Sport 1 (5-minute peak).

Arsenal v Liverpool on Sky Sports 1 from 17:00-20:00 averaged 1.4m and peaked at 2.11m (11.3%) (5-minute peak).

All according to reliable Twitter sources:
https://twitter.com/LiamHamiltonDCD/...52934266961920
https://twitter.com/TVRatingsUK/stat...50035088572416
NeilVW is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 23:07.