I agree with most people and BT will try for Option 2, but end up with Option 3. The big battle ground being the two Sunday slots, and in particular the prime first pick 4:00pm slot. If BT, could win the 4:00pm it would be seen as a major advance for them, but I just feel that slot Sky will go all out to protect, probably at the expense of some of the lesser slots. BT will most likely end up with Sat 12:45, Sun 1:30 and any other package that comes their way due to collateral damage during the Sun 4:00 battle.
However, all this assumes the packages will be set out as before. It's not in the PL's interest to see such a big, long term player as Sky take a massive hit, even it would only be for three years. It might be that Sky could see their business model survive during that time with a lesser PL offering, the much more balanced portfolio of other sports that BT doesn't have, and their entertainment strategy, and the PL might not want to risk that. They want long term two big media beasts bidding against each other. So, we could see a situation where the PL places restrictions on what you can win ie you can't hold both the prime first pick slots. There wouldn't be the big battle for Sun 4:00pm that everybody predicts, but the importance, and therefore price, of the other slots would stay at current levels or go up. It would come down to how much the PL brings in from the two first pick slots against all the other slots combined.
However, all this assumes the packages will be set out as before. It's not in the PL's interest to see such a big, long term player as Sky take a massive hit, even it would only be for three years. It might be that Sky could see their business model survive during that time with a lesser PL offering, the much more balanced portfolio of other sports that BT doesn't have, and their entertainment strategy, and the PL might not want to risk that. They want long term two big media beasts bidding against each other. So, we could see a situation where the PL places restrictions on what you can win ie you can't hold both the prime first pick slots. There wouldn't be the big battle for Sun 4:00pm that everybody predicts, but the importance, and therefore price, of the other slots would stay at current levels or go up. It would come down to how much the PL brings in from the two first pick slots against all the other slots combined.



