Strictly's launch got 8m to XF's 8.6m (exc +1) last year. Can't remember if there was a ten minute overlap though.

Maybe both will be in the same ballpark.

Indeed. It was predictable. What the show is lacking is unpredictability and a bit of spark. We all knew Phil was going to survive so in that sense, it was a cheap stunt at, as you say, getting Windsor back for an episode.

Ive been right with nearly everything Ive said this week in terms of predicting that there would be many underwhelming ratings for itv 9pm shows due to the reasons ive previously highlighted. I now confidently predict that XFs share will definitely be lower than last Saturday's, most likely the rating will be down too, but if the rating is up it will be due to the cooler weather. Just look at its share tomorrow, last week was 40pct as a reminder. XFactor share will be down and its first 10minutes will rate significantly lower than its first 10mins last week [8.11m inc +1].

"Confidently predict XF will be down" - you're basing this entirely on a 10-minute overlap, not on the factors which would help XF succeed (or drop). There's been a lot of talk around one contestant from last week. It doesn't need continuous media attention to rate well - just look at BGT.

It would have to drop to 8.2m to match last years third audition show rating, which I don't think it will. It's not a confident prediction on my part though because we've only seen two ratings - so it could go either way really.

No overlap, there was a 45 minute gap between them filled with DW and Red or Black if I remember well.

I have no idea about the ratings tonight, I have this feeling itv will pretty much the same as last week, maybe stepping out slightly lower and keyhole slightly higher, due to no casualty! I reckon strictly maybe lower than usual, even for a launch, just a gut feeling

It's usually been shown before 7pm.

I believe it's the first time X Factor's overlapped with the Strictly launch show.

It was a weaker episode last night, too. The funniest bits were the clips from next week's episode.

Why would Channel 5 want to axe one of their biggest shows? CBB was down last night due to the football.

The launch is never as spectacular as the first show proper. But it will garner between 7 and 8 million minimum. Stepping Out I predict will be 3.2m incl +1.

Why is there no Casulty?

Last night of the Proms takes it's slot.

All i can predict with reasonable accuracy is that Stepping Out will drop below 3million even including +1 against Strictly. The weaker show will be crushed by the stronger talent show. Strictly should manage 8.4million

The X Factor will be dented but will time-shift well. (which often seems to be forgotten by some when ITV's ratings come into play)

Through The Keyhole should stay at 4.5million inc+1.

Really aw I look forward to my Casualty on the weekend. Aw well ill just chill on the Xbox

In fairness some people seem to miss out how well some BBC shows time shift to. But I agree the Xfactor probably will do well in terms of time shifts etc.

Why not watch The X Factor or Through The Keyhole?

I don't see the attraction with the eggsbox. *cue bad joke groaning* .

Looking at the breakdown for TTK, it did seem to hold up quite well throughout the hour, which suggests that it may hold up well tonight.

Lol in fairness I give the Xfactor ago last week and just didn't like it and Lemon I can't stand. So I did try

That comment made me genuinely lol.

The Stepping Out thread is deserted compared to previous weeks - that's one indication as to how it'll perform.

....brilliant tennis match going on at Flushing Meadows. Hope it's getting a few viewers.

I don't always agree with you, but Keith Lemon has officially stopped me giving the revived Keyhole a chance. I do not understand how he gets so much work!!!

It doesn't take a genius to work out that it will rate really low this week, but will probably be back up to the same as last week, next week,

Was impressed, reckon it should do quite well for BBC One, ratings on a par with Merlin I guess.

Same here m8