Reasons I can see people voting for Vanessa:
1) Bit of shadenfreude at James Jordan's expense.
2) They'll actually find her inevitable verbal duelling with Craig entertaining.
3) Whatever pleasure Strictly viewers seem to derive year after year from voting for really bad dancers.
Originally Posted by Miriam_R:
“This is my bet too, though it wouldn't surprise me if Tony went first. I think people might not warm to Deborah (for some reason). And I don't think Tony, as nice as he seems, will evoke much reaction in people. That's why I think Vanessa has a better chance of staying in over Deborah, Tony and maybe even Fiona as I think she'll evoke more reaction from viewers (either of love and hate) than them, and therefore remain enough on the forefront of peoples minds' in which to garner votes to not at least be the first out. Could be wrong, but I see the paring of James and Vanessa as a more intriguing than those of Deborah, Tony and their pros.”
Since it's a "vote to stay" not "vote to leave", I think indifference is more toxic than dislike on Strictly so I imagine Tony will be first to go. He'll definitely be near the bottom of the leader board, if not bottom and I doubt many people will be aware of him. At least Deborah is on a TV show that is still on air so people know who she is and, despite the whole "dragon" thing being flogged to death already, she comes across well as a nice and intelligent woman who wants to enjoy the experience.