So now that we know our finalist who do you think will be in for the "surprise" elimination in week 5 (this is when it usually happens right?). Cast your minds back to such eliminations as Laura White and others (sorry can't remember them off the top of my head). So who from this year will be the one eliminated over another not suitable contestant etc.

Sam C/Abi

Luke, I reckon he will end up in the bottom two with either one of the other boys or one of the girls and end up going home.

I see a situation where Louis might have to choose between him and Nicholas or him and Sam, but I don't think his elimination will be a surprise.

Sam Callaghan. I think people will expect him to possibly make the finale as he's known as a "pretty boy" and will be popular with young girls but I don't think he will. Also I think Tamera may be the shock elimination by not just missing out on the finale too.

I think Luke will go early, along with Kingsland Road, Rough Copy and Shelly.

After that it starts to get tough because until the others' personalities and musical styles, abilities and limitations are clear you can only guess how the public will take to them.

If they're given a lot of r&b to sing then Miss Dynamix and Tamera may go early because I think x-factor voters prefer more middle of the road stuff.

Hannah.

Abi or Kingsland Road!

I can see a Hannah/Tamera bottom two happening at some point, so Hannah maybe.

I think it's quite an unpredictable year really, because apart from the girls, there are several unheralded acts in the finals this year.

When Hannah goes it won't be a great surprise to anyone except Hannah and maybe Nicole.

She just cries too damn much and if this forum is anything to go by, people are getting sick of sob stories.

Agreed. I think it's only after the first two weeks that favourites will start to emerge. Partly because we haven't heard enough singing and partly because there is no-one left who really stands out.

Hannah will lose to Tamera I think.

Tamera is prettier but she already has a bit of feeling against her because of the bullying and drugs stuff. Unless she can win people around then she will be in trouble when the numbers start to go down.

Of course she may well be saved a few times by the judges but if she is unpopular with the public they'll throw her under the bus in a heartbeat.

She's the one that's pretty much already guaranteed a record deal though, imo, so she doesn't need to win. In fact it might be better for her if she doesn't.

Tamera. Girls won't get behind her. She's too pretty and talented they'll just be jealous. Last year the girlies were jealous of Ella getting to be around the boys so they didn't vote for her.

Tamera of course : she won't reach the final......it's a popularity contest and there's something hard faced and unlikeable about her.

You've got some very strange ideas about girls. Sure sometimes they do bully up while boys tend to bully down, but in Tameras's case if they don't like her it won't be because she's pretty - it'll be because she's not likeable.

What Kyle said. One of these two.

I got a feeling it could be Tamera

Tamera.

I don't think it'll be Sam: I honestly see him gone in the first three weeks.

Lmfao seriously? Ella is the last person I would be jealous of. I didn't think she was attractive and her voice was painful. For the record I usually support the hot girls and I'm a girl myself... Don't generalize.

A Nicholas V Tamera situation in like week 5 would be only way a proper shock would happen I think it will as well

Sam Bailey

Tamera, too pretty as others have said, she wont get votes. She is a gorgeous girl but the type of people that vote on this show only vote for gorgeous boys or girls with some sort of gimmick (leona...timid as a church mouse, alexandra...beyonce won it for her, little mic...the fat one)

I don't doubt Alexandra's talent but I agree that the Beyoncé duet swung the voting in her favour. Viewers would've voted for Beyoncé to win if they could have!

Nicholas wouldn't be a shock, only if Tamera isn't saved.