I smell a record second win for Brendan this year - he seems to have the perfect partner and he has come on quite a journey himself.

I think it will be a second win for one of the pros. Either Brendan, Artem, or Ola (as I can see Ashley improving)

Aww not everyone is a good cook you know..

v.. impressive hip action in her itt training clip today
she may just hold on to her fav position

Some really good girls in this years show, but I reckon you're right...

Just seen this! and smiled! nice

She's not anymore, she's back to 2nd favourite. Natalie is favourite. But bookies' odds only change depending on where people put their money, so obviously more money has been bet for Natalie this week which isn't surprising.

Ashley is 3rd favourite which does surprise me, but again must be where the money is going.

I still think it is a very open season as to who is going to win.

By all technical and dance ability it ought to be Natalie, as she is dancing very close to professional standard. It will just be if the public vote for her , or vote for the "journey" candidate in preference. The "journey" candidate at this stage could be several celebs Susanna, Ben, Ashley, possibly Fiona are the contenders at the moment.

Sophie might get to the later stages, she needs another "wow" dance on top of her charleston, to make her look like a contender

Anyone think that having Artem as her pro will benefit Natalies chances of winning? Was thinking that maybe his choreography might be a factor, and he is very popular himself.

Not saying that Ola and Brendan are not popular though or Kevin.

good point, and lots of people like Kevin, so he's made a big impact in a short space of time.

No more than Pasha benefits Rachel. You need everything, celeb needs to be a good dancer, having Artem helps but the most important thing is the partnership chemistry. Artem didn't really have it with Fern and he couldn't really choreograph to the best of his ability because Fern couldn't do it, so she went out about the right time.

But Artem is the best choreographer by a country mile for me and it's a big part of the reason I find his partnership this year so intriguing.

Surely mostly anyone can be a great choreographer if you have a 12 year trained ballet/theatrical partner to work with?

Have you watched Anton or Robin?

Surely Susanna can't be a journey candidate after that jive in the first week

Some goes for Abbey and Rachel to a certain extent (though people will probably have all forgotten about her first ballroom dance by now).

I do agree that the pro can make a difference, most of the couples still left in are decent dancers and it is up to the pro to come up with clever choreography and make sure his/her celeb has the ability to pull it off (while also keeping the technique in check).

Oh I do hate the 'J' word.

I bet for a living but learned not to get too involved in betting on Strictly when, in the series 6 semi-final in 2008, the BBC changed the rules without warning and put the three semi-finalists through to the final which Tom Chambers duly won. Chambers was a cert to be eliminated at the semi-final stage after the judges had scored the dancers (barring an absolute disaster in the dance-off by Rachel or Lisa) and thus I took him on to win the tournament. Fingers were burned!

There have been opportunities to cash in during other series, though. When Zoe Ball was eliminated in third place in series 3 the money went down immediately on Darren Gough and was rewarded. There was only a very brief window to get on before others realised what was happening and his price was slashed. The perceived wisdom that Erin's decision to choose "dancing dummies" cost Colin Jackson the title is not correct.

Generally speaking, it often pays to lay the pre-series favourite on shows such as Striclty, Dancing on Ice, the X factor etc as if you back these before the show starts its run you are doing so not on the basis of any performances but on speculation. Things will happen during the series. Dramatic improvers emerge and can go on to win. Even the favourite may have a bad week and give you the chance to get out of the bet and minimise the loss if you have taken them on.

That said, there are always exceptions and this year I wasn't going to lay Natalie as I thought with what we knew about her she really would be the front runner from day 1 and the usual opportunities to trade out were unlikely to emerge. Indications are that this will be the case, whether she wins the title or not.

It is also worth bearing in mind that you are betting against people with inside knowledge of how the public vote has been shaping up each week!

Great news ,she is my fav.

At the moment, for the outright win, odds seem to be

Natalie
Sophie
Ashley
Susanna
Abbey

in that order.

Why don't we wait for the other couples to do a decent Charleston?

TBF I don't mind it in relation to a show like this or DOI where they are learning and trying to improve on a new skill. I hate it when it's used on shows like Big Brother or I'm A Celeb though.