In past we've had Laura Lucie Aiden The Risk and Ella

Who will it be this year I'm think Nicholas or Tamera

I'm thinking Nicholas or Hannah

Hannah.

They're gonna save Tamera every week if they have to

That's why I think Nicholas will be the one that causes the ofcom complaints because they won't send Tamera on her way

Tamera will be saved if she is in the bottom 2 no matter who she is up against and no matter how many times she is there so I'll have to go with Hannah.

Every year there is a shock exit

It depends on who they're planning to shove down our throats - Hannah or Tamera. Who's the alpha girl? One girl will be deported as the 'shock exit' early to avoid splitting votes. At the moment I'm actually thinking the alpha will be Hannah. She's got less commercial appeal but she gets emotional and it's the type of emotion that Ruth used rather than Maloney that gets votes and connects with viewers.

So the shock this year will be Tamera I'm guessing. It depends again on what happens in the lives - as the first week usually determines who the real contenders are and who's good enough to be a 'shock'. Somehow I think Tamera will end up a hate figure so I don't think she'll be a shock but from what we've seen so far + early favorite yes she will be.

I may be wrong when reading the OP but that's exactly what the thread is about?

Yep that's right - usually around week 5 when it normally happens

It is

So far we've had:

Series 2 - Maria Lawson (Week 5)
Series 4 - was there one? Maybe Futureproof (Week 3) or Beverly Trotman (Week 6)?
Series 5 - Laura White (Week 5)
Series 6 - Lucie Jones (Week 5)
Series 7 - Aiden Grimshaw (Week 6)
Series 8 - The Risk (Week 5)
Series 9 - Ella Henderson (Week 7)

Don't know about Series 1 or 3 because I hardly ever watched them.

So in general week 5 but it may vary

Um Melanie Masson going in week 2 was a shock

Not really. For the purposes of a shocking elimination - the eliminee has to be all things considered not just amazing vocals which Melanie had. Melanie never had the screentime, it was never made completely clear that was she Scottish whereas with others it has been, she didn't have a performance which would be liked by the mainstream/casual viewers, she was never that high up on the betting odds, she didn't have the everyday, every woman Mary B story like Sam B seems to have. Melanie was great but she was never regarded as a favorite. Therefore it wasn't shocking to see her appear in the bottom 2, let alone be eliminated.

Ella was a cert to reach the final - the bookies all had her as a fav since her version of Believe at Bootcamp. The shock of seeing her not make it to the finals, being pimped, not being the winner, being eliminated only in Week 7, heralded as the next Adele, Leona - that was by far the shock of the series. Coming below Rylan, UJ AND Chris was a shock!

I'm almost certain it will be Hannah. She's definitely going to 'do a Misha B' anyway and be bottom 2 fairly soon despite being a favourite.

What you describe is what's happened to Nicholas - only noticed since bootcamp by bookies I like him but seriously think he's a option for the dreaded week 5 vote off

Almost everyone seems to be saying Hannah, so would it really be much of a shock?

I can see it being Hannah as well. Maybe even Sam Bailey.

Abi (and yes I think she will last that long)

Hannah. I think that Tamera could be the controversial contestant who is saved in a few sing offs and then bows out at the semi final.

If abi lasts that long she'll be on borrowed time and her elimination would not be a shock at all. I suspect she will go sooner.

Prison officer Sam.