Originally Posted by Eagle9a:
“Can I ask someone who watches this regularly a question... ( I only caught a couple of minutes of yesterdays show and didnt quite understand all the rules).
In the "jackpot" round, why, if you dont think you would like a category (and therefore have to guess an answer) would you take one or two counters instead of three?
Surely if you know nowt about the subject you might as well guess for three. Sorry if I'm being stupid but it just seems illogical.
Even if the question for 1 or 2 is theoretically easier if you know nothing then it makes no difference.”
This is a good question. As you say if you genuinely know absolutely nothing about a subject, you're better off going for a 3 point question, because you'll be guessing in any case. However there's a bit more to it than that. I would imagine the one point questions are probably very easy. But I can't be sure because I've never seen anybody go for a one point question. It's hardly surprising, getting it right only gets you one counter, and so many of the counters fall nowhere near the jackpot counter and are no help, if you took only one point questions you'd need phenomenal luck to get it out.
There is a bit more of an argument for going for a two point question, if you're especially weak in a particular subject. In my experience these tend to be fairly easy as well. But I think on balance you're better off sticking to three pointers. Katie yesterday went for two two point questions and got neither of them right, including a football question, (what country does Luis Suarez play for), which if you know anything about current footballers, is easy, but if you don't, you'll still be guessing.
You can put some numbers in and work out your expectation.
For example, say on a two point question, you reckon you've got a 40% chance of knowing the answer. Your chance of getting the question right is thus sixty percent (because you will guess right 1 in 3 times when you don't know it), so your theoretical expectation is 1.2 counters.
On a three point question, if you know the answer only ten percent of the time, and guess the rest, you will get it right 40% of the time. This is also worth 1.2 counters, the same as the two point question expectation, even though you are guessing nearly every time. So on balance three is probably better.