We always have the very good and very bad with a few in the middle but this year I think there is a big group in the middle which could lead to some surprise exits. Assume Julian is out next week and dave although bottom is saved by the public. Who are the next weakest couples. There is a big field to choose from.

Rachel, Dave, even Deborah or Patrick could be at risk. Maybe Mark

It's good, apart from Julian and Dave, you really can't call it from a fair few of them, I like that!

I think Mark could definitely be in trouble, his dance on Saturday was pretty forgettable imo and he was only just above the bottom 2.

I'd add Fiona, Ben and maybe even Sophie and Abbey if they get the wrong dance to that list.

I think Abbey and Sophie would probably win any dance off though.

I think the only three safe from bottom 2 are Natalie, Susanna and Ashley as the best male.

I think once Julien's gone, the 2 above Dave are in real trouble because he will leapfrog them from the bottom for a while. But then Dave has a waltz this week which could be pretty uninspiring.

Yes, it's a bunched pack. Good. Let's see how they go!

I have a feeling that his weight has caused/is causing significant physical issues - look at his continually strapped knees in the training footage.

He's got performance skills, and he "gets it" as Len said, but I fear that his physical challenges are going to get the better of him.

It makes it exciting but then, what will happen? The polarising pairs are safe -- the two we're all debating (Natalie and Dave) -- but everyone who is in that 'squeezed middle' fighting away with blisters and routines and aching wotsits (arguably the group that carries the spirit of the show), they'll disappear before we even know it!

Yeah I noticed there were a lot of couples scoring 26-28, made me think that they were all in a dangerous position.

Patrick, Mark, Deborah and Fiona... seem like they could be the ones next in trouble (after Julien). Though I'm not entirely sure how I feel about Dave, I don't know that he has the momentum of Ann Widdecombe/John Sergeant to make it as far as them. But I think he has a couple of weeks left at least.

Someone like Abbey could maybe slip in the bottom 2 around the fabled Week 6 mark, but won't go. Rachel probably goes around when Victoria went.

I think Patrick is in trouble personally. His dances and personality are both quite understated & some might say bland & forgettable. His pro doesn't make him stand out either. I think he's in a more precarious position than Mark who brings a lot of personality on to the dance floor & Deborah whose love of dancing shines through everywhere.

Abbey seems to have gone right down under the radar too. But my prediction for the first 'shock' entrance to bottom 2 life is Patrick

I really hope not! He is quiet but he seemed genuinely moved to be dancing to the songs his dad loved. It was 'Family Week' and all the missed family members were duly paraded in... but Patrick seemed to be feeling it to me. Agree he's in a precarious position though...

I always forget about Patrick as soon as he has finished so I think you are right about him being the first shock bottom two.

yes I agree. I had high hopes for him, but he doesn't seem to say much and it doesn't seem out of shyness either, more that he's just a very guarded person. He's dancing is good but not amazing and not memorable enough.

Anya seems also to be quite bland personaility wise which is a shame as I lover her dancing

you know strictly better to be terrible memorable than quite good but a bit dull

We're going to start getting over that lump soon though - that big middle clump is going to split into 'improving all the time' and 'never really going to be much better than they are now'. I reckon Sophie, Abbey, Mark, Ashley, Fiona and maybe even Ben are in the first group, while Deborah, Rachel and Patrick probably fall into the second. Natalie and Susanna seem to be able to do enough to rise above the lump in any given week, so we'll discount them for the present.

As pointed out, we've got a couple of weeks for that to happen because Julien really can't be safe for much longer unless he ends up against Dave...and my opinion is that Dave will actually produce a creditable waltz, thus forgoing the sympathy vote and ending up in the bottom two sooner rather than later. So let's assume none of those in the middle tier will get voted out for at least three weeks - giving them ample time to improve or perish

I agree that the middle pack who are bunching at the moment will begin to disintegrate very soon. Most likely to go after Julien and Dave (whose presence will depend upon the publich entirely) are Patrick and Fiona. After them Mark is the next most vulnerable folowed by Deborah. The rest are safe for a good while yet.

Assuming Abbey has ballroom this week, I reckon her popularity will be on the rise again (unless its a quickstep or tango?).

And Susanna still has to be tested on party latin (just like most females last week, she only has one overscored latin to her name). She could easily be in the middle of the pack during latin weeks (if Sophie and Rachel improve their ballroom).

I agree

On It Takes Two, Craig said basically the opposite.

Yes he did & I don't agree with him

What's he going to say? "Well, they're all pretty average bar Natalie, so we're inflating their scores to make it look like we've got a good bunch."

He is not bad enough, good enough or unexpected enough to stand out enough.

Just hope he does an amazing Cha-cha.

His hips looked pretty good for 5 seconds on ITT tonight. He looks like this is one he wants to do, so hopefully he can come alive.

Well I hope that Patrick starts getting himself noticed because my daughter loves Casualty & has thus latched onto him as her favourite. I do fear that he will be out in a few weeks though & i'll have to cope with her sulking

I hope that they aren't quite so bunched tonight- will be interesting to see how / if the order changes much tonight.