Are you talking quarterly or annual change?

We already know the first 9 months of 2013 in which O2 added ~560k and Three added ~450k (of which around 300k were in Q3). Three are likely to do much better in PAYG numbers than the others because of the impact in H2 of 321. Therefore Three could see maybe 750k adds for the year. O2 depends on how many PAYG they can hang on to. They've managed to do better than EE or Vodafone having only lost around 200k for the 9 months but can that continue?

Oh and meant to add my prediction for the year for O2 is +700k and Three +750k because of Three's superior second half PAYG performance.

EE also said that they think they can triple the 4G base to 6 million by the end of 2014.

Ah, i forgot this. So in that case i'm going with

O2- 725k
3UK- 650k

estimates are yearly. Blimey, that took a while to get here. So I'm going to say these are my final estimates.


Wow. Although I think EE are banking on the existing T-Mo/Orange user base being moved over to EE4G though.

Another bad quarter, I suppose at least the number for customers leaving is gradually falling.


What are Vodafone's figures for Q4? I can't find them.

Can be found here-
http://www.vodafone.com/content/dam/...cember2013.pdf

Yeah I was referring to yearly as well. Pretty obvious that a lot of the EE pay as you go are likely to have moved to Three Tesco Giffgaff or O2. I know revenue isn't as high on pay as you go but I think it still should be considered important. Looks like UK is going become like Germany one year Vodafone is highest next T-Mobile is if EE had sorted out they would not be in that position.

Bit of a big estimate thinking they can get a quarter of there entire customer basis on 4G by the end of year. If it happens good for them but I not sure it will not a lot of people are truly bothered about it at the moment.

88% Smartphone penetration is impressive much in the same way O2s 48% isn't impressive. Smartphones are pretty useless on GPRS anyway!

Especially on O2's GPRS, where Google (yes, Google) will fail to load on GPRS.

Trying to load 40KB images from Kik Messenger on O2 GPRS would always fail for me.

Latest EE quarterly figures.

EE results for the quarter ending March 2014 (2014 Jan-Mar). Comparatives are with the previous quarter (2013 Oct-Dec) and the same quarter a year ago (2013 Jan-Mar).


Mobile service revenue: £1387m (2013 Oct-Dec: £1445m, 2013 Jan-Mar: £1422m)

Mobile Customers - Total: 24.576m (2013 Dec: 24.774m, 2013 Mar: 25.742m)
Mobile Customers - Postpaid: 14.473m (2013 Dec: 14.350m, 2013 Mar: 13.759m)
Mobile Customers - Prepaid: 10.103m (2013 Dec: 10.424m, 2013 Mar: 11.983m)

4G Customers - 2.885m (2013 Dec: 1.996m, 2013 Mar: 0.318m)

http://ee.co.uk/our-company/financia...-31-March-2014

Wow.

EE is growing very fast. That 6 million isn't exactly unreachable to be honest. It actually could happen by the end of the year.

Same trends as last year though where pay as you go numbers and overall.customer numbers are decreasing.

Thanks again Japaul.

Japaul, any word on number of masts decommissioned/remaining?

Nope, no numbers on that.

New numbers this time were total MVNO connections of ~3.7m (of which I guess Virgin is 3m). Also, might have to start including M2M numbers in the customer totals as EE seem to be going down this route. Need to stop O2 overtaking their totals

Interesting to see what you would expect slight increase in contract customers but another slump overall in terms of customers nearly 200K. How close is the gap between O2 and EE now ?

O2's figures for the same period will be out on May 9 but their total for Dec 2013 was 23.649m.

Ouch so less than a million unless O2 has lost customers as well. EE really do need to start fixing pay as you go. That is where they are continuing losing customers.

Can they honestly afford to keep losing so many customers? You can see there revenue is going down each quarter as well.

Haha did have to laugh when I saw EE claimed there site is best in class.

Depends. If you include EE's M2M numbers you can add another 1.7m to their total. I think EE would like us to do that. I was a bit surprised by the service revenue figure. I guess lots off those 4G customers aren't paying any extra for it.

Does O2 add it's M2M numbers to there total ?

Actually they would beat them then anyway wouldn't they think I remember reading O2 got the smart meter contract for the entire south.

They are also saying 4G coverage is now 72% [outdoor].

Gaining that extra 26% in 9 months is going be quite a challenge to do. Specially the last 8% wouldn't surprise me If they missed of by a couple of months.

Well EE want to migrate as many people as possible over from T-Mo and Orange. They state 50% of all upgrades are to EE from the other two brands. So its clear that EE are trying to upgrade their customers to 4G no matter what. Hence why people are actually getting some fairly good retention deals such as £10pm off line rental.

All part of the plan to get to 6m customers though.

Saying they expect to exceed 6m by year end now.

In addition to the 72% 4G coverage figure they also said that double speed coverage was 25% which I thought a bit low given it's mostly the bigger cities which are double speed. I guess it could be the gaps in these double speed areas or the coverage isn't where the population is reckoned to be.

Not 100% sure actually - need to revisit the definitions although I recall them not being particularly clear. Vodafone definitely don't include them. TBH each of the networks have slightly different rules but they are good enough to compare as along as you don't take it to the nth degree.

Olaf is saying 90% by the end of the year now so I think a bit more than a couple of months to get to 98%.

Also, 40 double speed cities by the end of the year.