When this series started everyone was convinced that this was going to be the year the producers went all out to get a female winner. The pretty young things (and Fiona) that made up most of the female half of the cast were hyped to the skies, and all the men were written off. The presence of one more female contestant than male was treated like the greatest act of rigging outside of an Ant & Dec phone-in. People were confidently predicting all-female final 3s, 4s and even 5s.

And yet here we are. Let's face it, at least two of Mark, Ben and Dave have terrifying nigh-on unstoppable fanbases. The screaming in Ben's standing ovations is almost reaching Louis Smith levels. Ashley is really the only contestant who seems to be consistently improving. Every week Ben and Patrick in particular have high scores hurled at them and treated like they're much better dancers then they are. Meanwhile the women are all on the backslide. Natalie can't win because she's a boring ringer with no journey. Abbey's just hurtled down the leaderboard into the dance-off like Rachel Stevens on a tea-trey. Sophie's all but given up, Fiona's ringer status was obviously a red herring and we've just seen two of the more likable "on a journey" females dispatched with little fuss or struggle. Who's the best hope for the women? Susanna or Sophie on a "oh wait you're doing ballroom so you're good again and let's try and find a way for you never to do salsa" journey?

What happened? Or is there still hope for the female winner everyone was treating as a fait accompli as soon as the cast was revealed?

First, nice thread .

-I still think that Sophie is the best hope for a female winner this year. She is very likeable and very popular even with her very dodgy Latin, I still think that she can win .

-Suzanna to an extent but I really hope that's not the case (unfortunately she is quite popular ) ; I dont even think that she should be in the finale.

I still think Sophie might win. If she gets to the final she'll be able to dance her crowd pleasing Charleston again and this time receive four 10's for it. That one dance might be enough to see off the rest of the competition on the night.

You haven't allowed for the last minute mysterious injuries to the last three male contestants which mean the producers have to draft in Jill Halfpenny, Kelly Brook and Alesha Dixon to take their places

Despite the naysayers "She can't possibly win", I do think Natalie will lift the Glitterball. I think it was farcical to have booked her, but it will be equally farcical if she isn't voted the dancing winner.

(Caveat: Unless something/someone changes radically between now and the final).

And then I hope we never see someone so obviously accomplished at dancing pre-show on ever again.

So, yeah, a woman can and will win, I reckon, but I don't think I was one of those 'everyone's' who was convinced a woman would lift the trophy. I don't think


edy! That's no way to talk about Brendan

I still think Sophie has a great chance. Her fanbase is underestimated.

I totally agree.

The fan-base that gets overlooked is Susanna's. Probably because on DS she is not hugely popular in comparison to elsewhere on the web.

Natalie could still do it.

You forget Brendan will be choreographing her showdance. Extra Strength Turkeyfoil? Clingfilm? Greaseproof Paper?

Hmm. Is Ben that popular with the wider public?

Why not? She can dance can't she? Both Ballroom and Latin, and inspite of the rancid hatred towards her on here, she's clearly popular with the general public who may watch Breakfast TV (VickiKaplinski ) and those who don't bother with forums such as this one.

To answer your query Monkseal, I'd say Susanna is best placed, though I still think Natalie will get to the Final too and stand a chance of winning, as Corrie is popular and the viewers can see she can dance - ringer or not.
Infact thank gawd for the likes of Natalie and Susanna, eg contestants who can actually dance, as an entire show made up of Not So Comedy Dave and Karen's 50s kitsch week after week would sent me batty!
I think the only unknown factor is how will the GBP react to BullyGate, and whether KevinFromGrimbsy by association with his fiance will get a backlash? Who knows?

I do think the only likely male winner is Ashley anyway, but also Ola may get a sympathy effect via him in the voting too.

But she still has her very crowd pleasing charleston . Contrary to its American counterpart (DWTS), thankfully the showdance doesnt necessarily guarantee you a win.
There have been winners in the past with passable or " okay " showdances but they still won .

But Brendan is pretty crap at choreographing showdances though ; That's not his forte but maybe he learned his lesson, who knows ?

I am curious to see how Aljaz would choreograph a showdance, that's one of the reasons why I am hoping that Abbey makes the finale.

The producers are definitely trying to make it look like there are male contenders by score inflation. None of them are good enough IMO, but it looks like many people now think that Ben is a decent dancer, so miracles can happen.

I think Ashley would make the only credible male winner and it wouldn't be a tragedy if he won. He's pretty, inoffensive and has the potential to become a competent dancer if he doesn't burnout before the end.

Meh ...I dont really think its too much about him but more so about her attitude in those dances but tbh I have never been really been impressed with his choreography in the Latin dances on the show.; not a fan but I absolutely love his ballroom routines .

While the men do seem to be in strong positions, I do think there's a possibility that this will change as the series goes on.

Last series, when Kimberley was in the bottom two, Michael must have been in the top four of the vote, but after Wembley was in both dance offs before his exit, whereas Kimberley pushed on to make the final. Similarly, Russell Grant seemed to go from 'public champion' (not that I agree with that tag, at all), to eliminated in quite a sudden way.

Also, if you look at the dances that remain for the men, I'm not so sure that they will all have a run of dances that will appeal to the audience who I would suspect have been voting for them so far. For instance, both Dave and Ben are due at least one Ballroom dance in a row and are both at there 'best' (I use the term loosely, and in terms of what I think appeal to their respective audiences) when blundering around/throwing their partner around. There's also the negative weekend press which could come into play against Dave and Karen, but to what level, I don't know.

Of course, I could be completely wrong, and I do believe that Ashley is in a very strong position with a popular professional, but I still think the female celebrities are in a stronger position at the moment. Particularly when you take into consideration that Brendan has managed to get the dances I'd guess will be Sophie's worst (except for the Salsa, which may be missed for them) out of the way early.

Could be Sophie, even though she's pretty poor, she only needs a decent ballroom and she has it. Maybe that's why she's been so bad in her Latin dances, she's saving herself.

Well, she wouldn't be the worst winner of all time and there's a chance her Latin will improve.

Is there "rancid hatred towards" Susanna? I can't stand her hammed-up performances, but I thought that I was in a minority here.


What is "BullyGate"?

And who is "KevinFromGrimbsy"?

Bullygate = Ola/Karen incident
KevinFromGrimsby is Kevin, the new pro; Suzanna's partner.

I still think we'll get a female winner. Ben really isn't very good at all, Ashley's looking more and more tired and probably has a limited fanbase, and Patrick's already had a dance-off. Mark will stick around for a while but eventually he'll be the worst one left. In the event that any of those made it into the final two or three, then the gulf between them and Natalie would probably be enough that their fanbase would surrender. Whether or not they make it that far is another matter - I still maintain that they're going to do an Austin or a Nicky on one of the boys a month or so down the line.

Funny that people seem to think Sophie has more chance than Susanna - I can't help thinking the opposite, because Sophie's getting worse and Susanna's improving IMO. Could Patrick be a contender for the men? He's as good as Ashley and much better than Ben. Just a thought.

He's already got one dance-off under his belt, and he must have been very low in the public vote that week (below Mark, Sophie, Fiona, Ben, Rachel and Dave). I'd guess he only avoided it this week because of his improved leaderboard position, and the next time he's near the bottom he may well fall in again.

Of the girls - I don't think Natalie will win, but we have yet to see her public vote really tested and probably won't until around week 10/11, the same time Denise or Jason started appearing in the bottom two. Sophie's in with a chance if she can just deal with the remaining latins and is probably popular. Susanna is probably popular as a Beeb Faithful. Abbey's chances of winning must have been sorely dented by this week, but Kimberley never appeared in the dance-off again, and she may at least be able to deny another boy a spot in the final.

Since I didn't know what the "Ola/Karen incident" was either, I tried looking it up.

Hmm.

If it actually happened, it still wouldn't be bullying.

No and I think Ola and James come out of it worse, as Ola went crying to the producers and James blew it out of all proportion.