I still think it's a bit difficult to call now. Anything can still happen.
So much for the Year Of The Woman?
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Originally Posted by cwickham:
“I still think we'll get a female winner. Ben really isn't very good at all, Ashley's looking more and more tired and probably has a limited fanbase, and Patrick's already had a dance-off. Mark will stick around for a while but eventually he'll be the worst one left. In the event that any of those made it into the final two or three, then the gulf between them and Natalie would probably be enough that their fanbase would surrender. Whether or not they make it that far is another matter - I still maintain that they're going to do an Austin or a Nicky on one of the boys a month or so down the line.”
“I still think we'll get a female winner. Ben really isn't very good at all, Ashley's looking more and more tired and probably has a limited fanbase, and Patrick's already had a dance-off. Mark will stick around for a while but eventually he'll be the worst one left. In the event that any of those made it into the final two or three, then the gulf between them and Natalie would probably be enough that their fanbase would surrender. Whether or not they make it that far is another matter - I still maintain that they're going to do an Austin or a Nicky on one of the boys a month or so down the line.”
I am getting tired of len overmarking ben, mark and dave. This is manipulating us to vote for em more.
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“I saw the parallels at the beginning of the series but I think we've lost them. We've still got our Gabby (whoever that is) and whilst Ashley could be a passable Matt, we don't have a Gethin (Ben is precisely the Kenny if we're analogising, except less of a git and substituting kilts for shirtlessness) and we definitely don't have a Letitia.
Our women are, if anything, at the moment Ricky Whittle, Louisa Lytton, Kimberley Walsh and...well...Susanna is her own creation but the nearest I can come up with is Dr Pamela minus 20 years and about 5 points per dance. And none of them were winners.”
“I saw the parallels at the beginning of the series but I think we've lost them. We've still got our Gabby (whoever that is) and whilst Ashley could be a passable Matt, we don't have a Gethin (Ben is precisely the Kenny if we're analogising, except less of a git and substituting kilts for shirtlessness) and we definitely don't have a Letitia.
Our women are, if anything, at the moment Ricky Whittle, Louisa Lytton, Kimberley Walsh and...well...Susanna is her own creation but the nearest I can come up with is Dr Pamela minus 20 years and about 5 points per dance. And none of them were winners.”
Surely Fiona is the closest we have to Gabby - trying hard, enjoys the show, ultimately doomed?
Originally Posted by KnowAll27:
“Surely Fiona is the closest we have to Gabby - trying hard, enjoys the show, ultimately doomed?”
“Surely Fiona is the closest we have to Gabby - trying hard, enjoys the show, ultimately doomed?”
But can that Fiona creature het her leg over her head?
Is the line up really that much different than last year apart from one extra capable female dancer? Last year you had Denise/Kimberley/Dani. This year you have Natalie/Sophie/Abby/Susanna. Last year you had the early favourite who turned out to crap in the form of Victoria, this year it was Rachel. The rest are/were no hopers.
I really think the only guy with a chance (albeit a very good chance) of winning is Ben. Patrick and Ashley are really forgettable. Dave will most likley finish bottom of the leader board every week he's there, and unless Mark significantly improves his support will eventually become overshadowed by the better dancers in the same way Lisa Riley's did.
I really think the only guy with a chance (albeit a very good chance) of winning is Ben. Patrick and Ashley are really forgettable. Dave will most likley finish bottom of the leader board every week he's there, and unless Mark significantly improves his support will eventually become overshadowed by the better dancers in the same way Lisa Riley's did.
Usual Daily Mail pile of horse poo then. Natalie is 11/10 which is close to evens (1/1) and Abbey is 7/2 (3.5/1). That's not even in the same ball park in betting.
Barring injury or unforeseen circumstances, and going on current form, think Natalie will win. Of course, one (or more) of the others might have a massive breakthrough, but at the moment it's difficult to see that happening - at least on the scale needed to become a realistic threat. Even given the flak she's had about her dance background, she's not such a divisive character as Denise and is quietly flying more or less under the radar. And Artem has a pretty big fanbase himself - which ain't gonna hurt!
I doubt that anyone could have stopped the post-Olympics Louis Smith bandwagon last year (including Natalie). But if, as we're led to believe, DVO came second despite all the negative publicity she attracted, I think a Natalie win is a dead cert.
Just reaching the final is actually the real competition for the others.
I doubt that anyone could have stopped the post-Olympics Louis Smith bandwagon last year (including Natalie). But if, as we're led to believe, DVO came second despite all the negative publicity she attracted, I think a Natalie win is a dead cert.
Just reaching the final is actually the real competition for the others.
Originally Posted by katmobile:
“I think this is a pretty acurate analysis and I'm surprised that Monkseal hasn't picked up on the parallels to series five where all the moment bar hopalong Katie were all full of potential and the guys all deemed to be hopeless.”
“I think this is a pretty acurate analysis and I'm surprised that Monkseal hasn't picked up on the parallels to series five where all the moment bar hopalong Katie were all full of potential and the guys all deemed to be hopeless.”
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“I saw the parallels at the beginning of the series but I think we've lost them. We've still got our Gabby (whoever that is) and whilst Ashley could be a passable Matt, we don't have a Gethin (Ben is precisely the Kenny if we're analogising, except less of a git and substituting kilts for shirtlessness) and we definitely don't have a Letitia.
Our women are, if anything, at the moment Ricky Whittle, Louisa Lytton, Kimberley Walsh and...well...Susanna is her own creation but the nearest I can come up with is Dr Pamela minus 20 years and about 5 points per dance. And none of them were winners.”
“I saw the parallels at the beginning of the series but I think we've lost them. We've still got our Gabby (whoever that is) and whilst Ashley could be a passable Matt, we don't have a Gethin (Ben is precisely the Kenny if we're analogising, except less of a git and substituting kilts for shirtlessness) and we definitely don't have a Letitia.
Our women are, if anything, at the moment Ricky Whittle, Louisa Lytton, Kimberley Walsh and...well...Susanna is her own creation but the nearest I can come up with is Dr Pamela minus 20 years and about 5 points per dance. And none of them were winners.”
To be fair my post was less analysis than it was hopeful thinking. I really liked series 5 and at the moment I'm less than thrilled by the idea of any of the boys picking up the trophy. The make up of the series compare reasonably well but the actual contestants aren't all that similar.
Why (according to Oddschecker) are Abbey's odds shortening all over the shop the week after being in the dance-off, when we know that she's the least popular celebrity in the vote?
Originally Posted by cwickham:
“Why (according to Oddschecker) are Abbey's odds shortening all over the shop the week after being in the dance-off, when we know that she's the least popular celebrity in the vote?”
“Why (according to Oddschecker) are Abbey's odds shortening all over the shop the week after being in the dance-off, when we know that she's the least popular celebrity in the vote?”
I was a bit confused when I saw this myself. Perhaps it's because they've seen (more) training footage of their dance and it's a good one? It happened the week of Sophie's Charleston... her odds went from something around 11/1 to 5/1 in just a day, then the day after the dance they were at 3/1
Originally Posted by cwickham:
“Why (according to Oddschecker) are Abbey's odds shortening all over the shop the week after being in the dance-off, when we know that she's the least popular celebrity in the vote?”
“Why (according to Oddschecker) are Abbey's odds shortening all over the shop the week after being in the dance-off, when we know that she's the least popular celebrity in the vote?”
Because she's unlikely to be there again until much later in the competition - she will undoubtedly get a bounce in the voting, plus protection from the judges.
Plus, if one place shortens the price, everyone else has to follow or else get stuck with a load of arbs they don't want.
Originally Posted by cwickham:
“Why (according to Oddschecker) are Abbey's odds shortening all over the shop the week after being in the dance-off, when we know that she's the least popular celebrity in the vote?”
“Why (according to Oddschecker) are Abbey's odds shortening all over the shop the week after being in the dance-off, when we know that she's the least popular celebrity in the vote?”
They said in the article. A lot of money has been placed on Abbey to top the leader board this week. Personally, I just think that's the betting community's awareness that the judges aren't above manipulating the scores to make it happen, more than Abbey being popular
(and I say that as someone who is supporting Abbey).ETA: People who take betting seriously, such as placing money on leader board positions, do NOT bet on their 'favourites'.
Originally Posted by edy10:
“Just curious, who does the oddmakers have as favorite to win so far ?
Does anyone knows
”
“Just curious, who does the oddmakers have as favorite to win so far ?
Does anyone knows
”
Natalie is still favourite at the moment: http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strict...dancing/winner
Thanks. I thought so.
I think that they are correct with the top 5 but the order will be reversed; especially in the finale for the top 4.
If I could bet on anyone at the moment to win, it would be Sophie or maybe Ben (believe it or not ).
Natalie is going to finish 2nd or 3rd.
I think that they are correct with the top 5 but the order will be reversed; especially in the finale for the top 4.
If I could bet on anyone at the moment to win, it would be Sophie or maybe Ben (believe it or not ).
Natalie is going to finish 2nd or 3rd.
Originally Posted by Tuscan Sun:
“Barring injury or unforeseen circumstances, and going on current form, think Natalie will win. Of course, one (or more) of the others might have a massive breakthrough, but at the moment it's difficult to see that happening - at least on the scale needed to become a realistic threat. Even given the flak she's had about her dance background, she's not such a divisive character as Denise and is quietly flying more or less under the radar. And Artem has a pretty big fanbase himself - which ain't gonna hurt!
I doubt that anyone could have stopped the post-Olympics Louis Smith bandwagon last year (including Natalie). But if, as we're led to believe, DVO came second despite all the negative publicity she attracted, I think a Natalie win is a dead cert.
Just reaching the final is actually the real competition for the others.”
“Barring injury or unforeseen circumstances, and going on current form, think Natalie will win. Of course, one (or more) of the others might have a massive breakthrough, but at the moment it's difficult to see that happening - at least on the scale needed to become a realistic threat. Even given the flak she's had about her dance background, she's not such a divisive character as Denise and is quietly flying more or less under the radar. And Artem has a pretty big fanbase himself - which ain't gonna hurt!
I doubt that anyone could have stopped the post-Olympics Louis Smith bandwagon last year (including Natalie). But if, as we're led to believe, DVO came second despite all the negative publicity she attracted, I think a Natalie win is a dead cert.
Just reaching the final is actually the real competition for the others.”
As the numbers come down and the others get better then the public vote will become more important.
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“When this series started everyone was convinced that this was going to be the year the producers went all out to get a female winner. d?”
“When this series started everyone was convinced that this was going to be the year the producers went all out to get a female winner. d?”
Yes, the female producers rigged it for a female winner with physically fit females and comedy fat men.
Serves them right if it backfires.
After this week's show I still reckon we're heading for a female winner. Patrick is undoubtedly a frontrunner now, but he's already had a dance-off which showed he must have been very low in the public vote this week. Ashley is improving but his lack of training time is still getting in the way (he's yet to come higher than third on the leaderboard, which he managed once; otherwise he's been hovering around fourth/fifth). Even with the guaranteed extra mark or two from Len, Ben is definitely going to find himself in trouble once Fiona, Mark and Dave are out - that was one dreadful jive.
To be fair, though, all of the girls have their problems too, although hopefully Sophie can build some momentum after this week's "comeback", and Susanna should be safe for the time being.
To be fair, though, all of the girls have their problems too, although hopefully Sophie can build some momentum after this week's "comeback", and Susanna should be safe for the time being.
What momentum ? Sophie was average at best tonight and seems to be going backwards imo. If anyone had a momentum tonight(from the women ) it was Suzanna. Somehow she seems to be headed in the right direction ; not a fan but she seems like a dark horse . Abbey did well as usual and some people who were not previously warming up to her loved her Cabaret performance : ( I saw the reactions and responses ) .
Will Sophie ever get it ? What people ask of her ?
With that being said, I still think that Sophie has the best chance of the female celebrities to win ; when she gets to the finale and do that Charleston, she will pretty much have it into the bag imo.
And Ben for the men.
Will Sophie ever get it ? What people ask of her ?
With that being said, I still think that Sophie has the best chance of the female celebrities to win ; when she gets to the finale and do that Charleston, she will pretty much have it into the bag imo
.And Ben for the men.
Originally Posted by edy10:
“What momentum ? Sophie was average at best tonight and seems to be going backwards imo. If anyone had a momentum tonight(from the women ) it was Suzanna. Somehow she seems to be headed in the right direction ; not a fan but she seems like a dark horse . Abbey did well as usual and some people who were not previously warming up to her loved her Cabaret performance : ( I saw the reactions and responses ) .
Will Sophie ever get it ? What people ask of her ?
With that being said, I still think that Sophie has the best chance of the female celebrities to win ; when she gets to the finale and do that Charleston, she will pretty much have it into the bag imo.
And Ben for the men.”
“What momentum ? Sophie was average at best tonight and seems to be going backwards imo. If anyone had a momentum tonight(from the women ) it was Suzanna. Somehow she seems to be headed in the right direction ; not a fan but she seems like a dark horse . Abbey did well as usual and some people who were not previously warming up to her loved her Cabaret performance : ( I saw the reactions and responses ) .
Will Sophie ever get it ? What people ask of her ?
With that being said, I still think that Sophie has the best chance of the female celebrities to win ; when she gets to the finale and do that Charleston, she will pretty much have it into the bag imo
.And Ben for the men.”
One excellent routine and the `average` routines is not enough to see her win imo
To be honest after last night I can see the last 6 being an equal mix.
If Natalie has to pull out I can see a final being male top heavy.
Abbey I can see running out of steam.
Susanna may get there on pr alone - her dancing is not improving at the rate the judges would have us believe (and her pro is still over dancing and showing her up).
Sophie I think is running out of steam and looking showing less emotion and personality by the week.
In contrast Patrick and Ashley are improving and even though at a lesser rate I can see Ben improving and being the "journey" contestant this year.
As you say - so much for the year of the woman.
If Natalie has to pull out I can see a final being male top heavy.
Abbey I can see running out of steam.
Susanna may get there on pr alone - her dancing is not improving at the rate the judges would have us believe (and her pro is still over dancing and showing her up).
Sophie I think is running out of steam and looking showing less emotion and personality by the week.
In contrast Patrick and Ashley are improving and even though at a lesser rate I can see Ben improving and being the "journey" contestant this year.
As you say - so much for the year of the woman.
Originally Posted by Tissy:
“One excellent routine and the `average` routines is not enough to see her win imo”
“One excellent routine and the `average` routines is not enough to see her win imo”
Could that not be said of all the women (except Natalie)?
Judging by the reactions outside this forum, Susanna's and Sophie's dances were the best received of the female celebrities (leaving stuff like expression and emotion aside).
Do find it funny how people say that Sophie is going backwards (obviously not pointswise) while Abbey has given two performances after another which were lacking in some way.
Think that with Patrick and Susanna we have a good chance of getting a 40+ winner (Patrick has stepped up a gear while Susanna is lucky tbat people have decided to pick on some of tbe other contestants).
Would be funny if Susanna was the last woman standing (can see the housewoman vote transfer to her if Natalie has to retire).
Originally Posted by Malik24:
“Hmm. Is Ben that popular with the wider public?”
“Hmm. Is Ben that popular with the wider public?”
he takes his shirt off.. for all their hidden depths, women are very shallow.
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