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O2 UK Results
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Everything Goes
14-05-2015
WTF smartphone penetration has gone down from 52.1% to 49.3%

I knew O2 were a backwards network but obviously they are going in reverse now. They must really hate smartphones.
japaul
14-05-2015
I had to do a double take when I looked at the smartphone penetration numbers thinking that TEF had perhaps made a mistake but the raw figures say the same thing - 10.785m smartphones in Q1 compared with 11.338m in Q4 2014.
Everything Goes
14-05-2015
Originally Posted by japaul:
“I had to do a double take when I looked at the smartphone penetration numbers thinking that TEF had perhaps made a mistake but the raw figures say the same thing - 10.785m smartphones in Q1 compared with 11.338m in Q4 2014.”


My initial assumption would be they have had an influx of Old Dears wanting feature phones and the Young Ones have left to find a network with better 3G / 4G coverage.

Hutchison have their work cut out form them if the deal goes ahead.
Denco1
14-05-2015
4G customers have made a healthy jump, on track for over 7 million next year. Saying that is the increase attributed to moving customers over to 4G plans and after this 4G takeup will reduce significantly?
japaul
14-05-2015
Originally Posted by Denco1:
“4G customers have made a healthy jump, on track for over 7 million next year. Saying that is the increase attributed to moving customers over to 4G plans and after this 4G takeup will reduce significantly?”

Yes but there's still a long way to go so 4G numbers will grow rapidly for some time. A lot of upgrades will be 4G from 3G and normal churn will continue to boost 4G. The change in customer totals might only be 100k or so in the quarter but remember this is a net adds figure made up of gross adds minus losses. Almost all of the gross adds will be 4G whilst the losses are mainly 3G.

However, whilst it's nice to see the 4G numbers, it isn't the most important thing. Now the changes due to regulatory headwinds have stabilised, the networks are all focussed on trying to grow service revenues again. It's a bit difficult to judge O2 because of Refresh which distorts the revenue numbers somewhat but overall it seems to have stabilised.

My feeling is though that the revenue O2 lose from Refresh when customers reach the end of their minimum term and their tariffs reduce isn't being wholly compensated for by the extra customers it should generate. I think this is why we haven't seen it replicated by the others.

EE clearly demonstrates that 4G numbers don't mean much with its last quarter numbers which were frankly disappointing. Despite being way out in front on 4G numbers growth, revenue is still going backwards when they really should have turned it around by now. We'll see what Vodafone bring next week but unless they've seen a major reverse they should be okay as they had already returned to growth at the end of last year.
Denco1
30-07-2015
Today's O2 results look alright, they haven't mentioned 4G additions though and I can't find smartphone penetration either. I'll post the results later tonight if no one beats me to it.
swb1964
30-07-2015
Smartphone penetration will be interesting. From looking around town in any cafe or bar, almost everyone has a smartphone now. I'm amazed it's anything less than 90% to be honest.
Denco1
30-07-2015
You will be amazed then. Only Three and EE will be looking at over 90% smartphone penetration, if even EE at that. O2 were around 50% last quarter, that would be a 40% increase, I'm sure that would be a world first
Thine Wonk
30-07-2015
Originally Posted by swb1964:
“Smartphone penetration will be interesting. From looking around town in any cafe or bar, almost everyone has a smartphone now. I'm amazed it's anything less than 90% to be honest.”

It was 49.3% last report, the network with the least smartphone customers by quite a long way and last report it actually dropped as more smartphone customers moved away.
swb1964
30-07-2015
Originally Posted by Denco1:
“You will be amazed then.”

Given that you can pick up a smartphone for thirty quid now, I am indeed amazed.
Gigabit
30-07-2015
I miss when wavejock used to come in and say how good 50% penetration was.

Oh wait, no I don't.
clewsy
30-07-2015
What is defined as a smart phone? Or more importantly do they all use the same definition?

Also will the o2 figures include Tesco Mobile in that data?

O2 struggles on 3g in many city centres with congestion , you can just tell at lunch times how much it grinds to a hault.
bookey_uk
30-07-2015
Originally Posted by clewsy:
“What is defined as a smart phone? Or more importantly do they all use the same definition?

Also will the o2 figures include Tesco Mobile in that data?

O2 struggles on 3g in many city centres with congestion , you can just tell at lunch times how much it grinds to a hault.”

The figures should not includeTesco Mobile or any MVNO, smartphone figures, not surprised based on the lack of 3G coverage outside city centres.
Denco1
30-07-2015
O2 UK results for the quarter ending June 2015 (2015 Apr-Jun). Comparatives are with
the previous quarter (2015 Jan-Mar) and the same quarter a year ago (2014 Apr-Jun).

Mobile Customers (Total): 22.582m (2014 Dec: 22.416m)
Mobile Customers (Prepay): 10.793m (2014 Dec: 10.766m, 2014 Jun: 10.549m)
Mobile Customers (Contract): 11.789m (2014 Dec: 11.650m)

Smartphone penetration: 49.9% (2015 Mar: 49.3%, 2014 Jun: 50%)

I've struggled a bit to do these figures as you may notice from the missing data, the reason being O2 have decided to remove O2 UK from the main results as they intend on selling them to Three. Hopefully Three's results tomorrow will be easier to process, and japaul may be able to do any corrections once he comes back from holiday.
clewsy
30-07-2015
Well looking at those they are showing some very slow growth.

Will be interesting to know if they are cutting back the network upgrade investment now? If so, and the Three deal happens (big IF) then what will it inherit? Doesnt bode that well.
Denco1
30-07-2015
At least they are making growth though, EE and Vodafone aren't. Revenue and profit is up but I decided not to include those as I could not find out just mobile service revenue.
interactiv-uk
30-07-2015
Originally Posted by clewsy:
“Well looking at those they are showing some very slow growth.

Will be interesting to know if they are cutting back the network upgrade investment now? If so, and the Three deal happens (big IF) then what will it inherit? Doesnt bode that well.”

There is no slowdown in the network modernisation programme. 559 towns now have 4G and the footprint reaches 73% outdoor pop coverage. 2G and 3G are being replaced/upgraded at the same time. They are obliged to hit 98% indoor pop coverage by end of 2017.

0.9% contract churn - YTD churn 11.6%
139k new post pay customers (ex M2M)
27k new pre pay customers
Q2 revenue +1.6% YoY
Q2 OIBDA Profit growth +14% YoY


I know that O2 regularly gets a kicking in these forums but as the only network showing net customer addictions this quarter (so far - Three release tomorrow) they must be doing SOMETHING right?
clewsy
30-07-2015
Well this is the problem as the market is saturated really now, so growth will only come through discounting to obtain customers.

Great for the consumer, not so good for the networks. The 4g factor was planned to add value, but that failed in many cases. EE probably are having limited success with getting some premium from it.

This is why the three / o2 should not be allowed as it will just kill competition and drive up prices.
jabbamk1
30-07-2015
LTE Subscribers in the UK

O2: 5.77m
Vo: 4.70m
EE: 10.90m
Th: 4m+

~25m total
Denco1
30-07-2015
Originally Posted by interactiv-uk:
“They are obliged to hit 98% indoor pop coverage by end of 2017.”

Are they not obliged to hit 90% geographical voice coverage by 2017?
Denco1
30-07-2015
Originally Posted by jabbamk1:
“LTE Subscribers in the UK

O2: 5.77m
Vo: 4.70m
EE: 10.90m
Th: 4m+

~25m total”

Nice to see all operators 4G numbers growing, albeit Three being a little slow but they are the smallest network with the largest percentage of smartphones and any 4G additions have to come from new phones/customers rather than changing someone's tariff.
That's assuming the Three 4G number is the Q2 number and not Q1 number, my post will look rather silly if that isn't the case
jabbamk1
30-07-2015
Originally Posted by Denco1:
“Nice to see all operators 4G numbers growing, albeit Three being a little slow but they are the smallest network with the largest percentage of smartphones and any 4G additions have to come from new phones/customers rather than changing someone's tariff.
That's assuming the Three 4G number is the Q2 number and not Q1 number, my post will look rather silly if that isn't the case ”

I don't know where Three is at the moment but I know it's over 4 million.

We should see another 7.5 million+ subscriptions added in the second half of the year as a minimum.
Zebb
31-07-2015
Originally Posted by jabbamk1:
“I don't know where Three is at the moment but I know it's over 4 million.

We should see another 7.5 million+ subscriptions added in the second half of the year as a minimum.”

Where will all these new 7.5 million+ subscriptions come from, immigrants from the chunnel?
jabbamk1
31-07-2015
Originally Posted by Zebb:
“Where will all these new 7.5 million+ subscriptions come from, immigrants from the chunnel?”


I mean total LTE subscribers.
jaffboy151
31-07-2015
Originally Posted by clewsy:
“What is defined as a smart phone? Or more importantly do they all use the same definition?

Also will the o2 figures include Tesco Mobile in that data?

O2 struggles on 3g in many city centres with congestion , you can just tell at lunch times how much it grinds to a hault.”

If O2 and Vodafone's smart phone figures start to rise and reach simular levels to those of EE and three, does anyone have an idea how there network will cope with the extra demand?
I'm wondering this as due to the general low levels of investments in 3g over the years and the fact that they use a lower frequency for 2g and are doing largely for 4g meaning they tend to have fewer masts covering larger areas?
I know Vodafone have 2600mhz but if they don't have enough masts in the area to spread the load surely the higher numbers will start to cause problems soon?
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