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Old 26-02-2016, 18:55
japaul
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Interesting. Do the O2 UK subscriber numbers include its (Telefonica UK) wholly owned subsidiaries such as giffgaff ?
Controlled MVNOs are included in their figures so yes for giffgaff, no for something like Tesco (50% ownership).
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Old 27-02-2016, 09:26
prking
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Quite a drop in revenue and total base since last quarter! Has the foot been taken off the gas with the upcoming potential takeover??

Nice increase in smartphone penetration though!
Since when has 0.5% been " quite a drop" in total base? For that matter a 2.8% drop in revenue is hardly " quite a drop" . Both are within the margin of error.

Not defending them as essentially its flat and whilst it works be concerning if there was no growth over a long period there's nothing earth shattering here.

The one big warning sign is that the prepay market seems to dwindling where O2 have traditionally fared well.

Regarding the smartphone penetration - I'm sure a part of this is business contracts moving away from feature phones to smartphones, smartphones as second phones and the prepay to postpay shift.
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Old 27-02-2016, 10:14
sethpet
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You are joking right....a YoY revenue loss near 3% (~£30m) will I assure you be causing any business a lot of pain and discomfort. Especially in such a low margin industry as mobile telecoms in the UK, that's going straight to hurting the bottom line and their EBITA margin.

Japual, what's happened to their cost base over the same periods?
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Old 27-02-2016, 11:10
wilt
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Could the revenue not be attributed to the refresh tariffs?

Would repayments to hire-purchase agreements count as revenue?
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Old 27-02-2016, 15:05
japaul
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Refresh does indeed make things a little more complicated (something I've mentioned in previous quarters) so it needs to be looked at with care.

In terms of EBITDA, the full year total for 2015 was virtually identical to 2014 (£1.4 billion). This does mask a considerably worse performance in Q4 2015 compared with 2014 but as I said above, it's difficult to draw conclusions based on one quarter.
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Old 27-02-2016, 15:30
japaul
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Not directly related to the results but O2 did say 4G coverage (outdoor pop) reached 80% in December 2015.

And on the Three/O2 deal, whilst the statement of objections from the European Commission hasn't been made public by anyone, Telefonica's CFO said what the EC had come up with doesn't include any concerns not seen in the previously cleared deals in Germany and Ireland and on some aspects like pricing the concern was actually less that in the previously cleared deals.

Could just be talk so we'll have to wait and see.
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Old 27-02-2016, 16:50
lightspeed2398
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Not directly related to the results but O2 did say 4G coverage (outdoor pop) reached 80% in December 2015.
.
Are there any differences in the Cornerstone rollout at this point? I know Voda said 79% but it can't be too much of a difference?
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Old 27-02-2016, 20:15
japaul
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I think the main rollout is virtually identical with the differences mainly being due to switch on timing.

O2 always seem to quote a figure that's a point or two ahead of Vod but it could be down to how they measure it.

There are differences in some of the dedicated solutions and small cells though.
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Old 09-03-2016, 00:58
Everything Goes
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Not directly related to the results but O2 did say 4G coverage (outdoor pop) reached 80% in December 2015.
O2 have to meet a 98% indoor coverage using 3G or 4G by December 31st 2017. However O2 have stated they will use 4G.

In fact, we won't let up until 98% of the UK population can get our calls, texts and 4G data, both indoors and out.
http://www.o2.co.uk/connectivity/network-coverage

Given the 80% figure is for Outdoor and not Indoor. How likely do you think it is that O2 will meet the obligation without getting into trouble from Ofcom as usual? The main problem as I see it is the law of diminishing returns. Covering big areas of population is easy. Getting those pesky 90% and above Indoors will be very difficult.

EE claim 95.23% 4G population coverage as at 31st Jan 2016.
http://ee.co.uk/ee-and-me/why-ee/net...obile-coverage

While the deadline is 21 months away I am sceptical that they will reach their 4G promise.
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Old 09-03-2016, 10:57
japaul
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It does seem to be getting a bit tight for time from O2's point of view.

I suspect if they were late they would probably be given another 6 months or so without too many complaints as it doesn't really matter that much in the long term. It's not in the interests of the other networks to kick up a fuss either as they are also up before Ofcom for their own breaches from time to time (not necessarily for this type of issue) and they want a general sense of leniency to prevail.
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Old 09-03-2016, 16:18
Everything Goes
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It does seem to be getting a bit tight for time from O2's point of view.

I suspect if they were late they would probably be given another 6 months or so without too many complaints as it doesn't really matter that much in the long term. It's not in the interests of the other networks to kick up a fuss either as they are also up before Ofcom for their own breaches from time to time (not necessarily for this type of issue) and they want a general sense of leniency to prevail.
The main problem for Ofcom is they made this a very public undertaking. O2 have a history of failing to meet coverage obligations. Last time Ofcom threatened to fine them and shorten the length of their 3G licence. Vodafone got off more lightly and were only told they a few months to improve. I suspect Ofcom may want to save their face this time if O2 fail to meet their obligations.
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Old 29-04-2016, 10:21
japaul
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Latest from O2. Customer totals exclude machine to machine and include the disconnection of 720,000 inactive prepay customers in Q1 2016.


O2 UK results for the quarter ending March 2016 (2016 Jan-Mar). Comparatives are with the previous quarter (2015 Oct-Dec) and the same quarter a year ago (2015 Jan-Mar).

Mobile Service Revenue: £1020m (2015 Oct-Dec: £1045m, 2015 Jan-Mar: £1025m)

Mobile Customers (Total): 21.790m (2015 Dec: 22.635m, 2015 Mar: 22.416m)
Mobile Customers (Prepay): 9.640m (2015 Dec: 10.561m, 2015 Mar: 10.766m)
Mobile customers (Contract): 12.149m (2015 Dec: 12.074m, 2015 Mar: 11.650m)

4G Customers: 8.301m (2015 Dec: 7.662m, 2015 Mar: 4.906m)

Smartphone Penetration: 62.8% (2015 Dec: 60.4%, 2015 Mar: 49.3%)
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Old 29-04-2016, 10:34
Everything Goes
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More odd results from O2. Disconnecting 720,000 inactive prepay customers in Q1 2016 seems out of the ordinary. I assumed they did this sort of thing on a regular basis. The Smartphone penetration is on the rise again after some strange ups an downs.
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Old 29-04-2016, 11:00
japaul
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Just speculating but they probably had to have some sort of clean up for the acquisition and being really cynical, it would look like their overall market share in terms of customer numbers was smaller which might have been a factor while trying to get approval.

However probably not as although I don't include M2M numbers in my totals, the overall customer total hasn't been affected as the M2M numbers received a boost funnily enough of the exact same 720,000 in the quarter by including accesses from Jasper (Jasper is Cisco's M2M/IoT platform).
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Old 02-05-2016, 08:48
jabbamk1
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I've been out of the loop for a while.

When did smartphone penetration exceed 50%. Haha.
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Old 02-05-2016, 10:32
Everything Goes
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I've been out of the loop for a while.

When did smartphone penetration exceed 50%. Haha.
Yes you really have been out the loop 😄
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Old 02-05-2016, 10:40
jonmorris
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I've been out of the loop for a while.

When did smartphone penetration exceed 50%. Haha.
Since O2 decided a £4.99 candy bar phone from Argos is actually a smartphone.
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Old 02-05-2016, 22:33
mrgs12
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It does seem to be getting a bit tight for time from O2's point of view.

I suspect if they were late they would probably be given another 6 months or so without too many complaints as it doesn't really matter that much in the long term. It's not in the interests of the other networks to kick up a fuss either as they are also up before Ofcom for their own breaches from time to time (not necessarily for this type of issue) and they want a general sense of leniency to prevail.
Is it possible to be in 98% 2G coverage figures and when 98% 4G is compete not be in 4G coverage area ? I know my area the mast will not be upgraded it wil stay Vodafone only the council were informed.
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Old 28-07-2016, 23:20
Everything Goes
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O2 sales dip 9%

Sales at O2 UK fell by 8.9 per cent to €3.46bn (£2.91bn) for the first half of the year, as customers opted to hang on to their old handsets rather than upgrade.

Sales for the quarter fell even further by 12.3 per cent year-on-year to €1.71bn (£1.4bn).

Carse said: "Much of the revenue decline reflected the impact of lower handset sales from O2 Refresh (which enables early upgrades). This was reflected in ex-Refresh declines of 0.2 per cent for Mobile service revenue and 1.6 per cent for total revenue, versus the four per cent headline organic decline. 4G subscribers grew 1.489m in the quarter to 9.49m, taking penetration to 43.1 per cent."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07..._q2_h1_fy2016/

Anyone know what happend to Japaul?
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Old 28-10-2016, 17:36
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Total mobile accesses (25.4 million) grew 1% year-on-year driven by a 10% year-on-year increase of the contract mobile customer base (62% of the total; +5 percentage points year-on-year), after recording 199 thousand net additions in the third quarter on the back of market-leading levels of contract churn (0.9%; flat year-on-year) and the success of SIM-only tariffs. The prepay mobile base registered 32 thousand net additions in the three months to September.

Mobile data traffic continued to increase (+64.5% year-on-year in the third quarter), supported by the 51% year-on-year growth of LTE accesses. The rapid deployment of LTE was sustained, reaching 93% outdoor population coverage as of September (+15 percentage points year-on-year), leading to an LTE base of 10.0 million, with a penetration of 45% (+15 percentage points year-on-year). Smartphones stood at 14.1 million at the end of the third quarter (+26% year-on-year), with a penetration of 66% (+15 percentage points year-on-year).
Smartphone Penetration 66% is still way behind everyone else.

https://www.telefonica.com/documents...d-e87734b22080
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Old 28-10-2016, 19:48
georgi_prodanov
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Smartphone Penetration 66% is still way behind everyone else.

https://www.telefonica.com/documents...d-e87734b22080
That is nothing. I do not know how they will achieve 98 percent indoor coverage to the end of next year. It looks mission impossible. They started 2013 so for 3 years 22 percent per year
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Old 28-10-2016, 21:41
Everything Goes
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That is nothing. I do not know how they will achieve 98 percent indoor coverage to the end of next year. It looks mission impossible. They started 2013 so for 3 years 22 percent per year
The coverage obligation can be met using 3G as Ofcom being useless gave them a nice loophole.

1.4 Below we summarise our approach to monitor and verify compliance with this obligation based on a service provided using current LTE technology, noting that the obligation holder may use any of its portfolio of licensed mobile spectrum in order to meet the obligation. However, it will also be open to the obligation holder to meet the obligation with alternative mobile broadband technologies if they wish to.
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1937180
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Old 28-10-2016, 22:33
Thine Wonk
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O2's 3G isn't particularly hot though, they might still struggle?

Also is O2 refresh to blame? will this turn out to be the worst idea ever? I know Three were going to copy the idea and give it a different name, but they pulled the plan.
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Old 28-10-2016, 22:42
Everything Goes
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O2's 3G isn't particularly hot though, they might still struggle?

Also is O2 refresh to blame? will this turn out to be the worst idea ever? I know Three were going to copy the idea and call theirs something similar, but they pulled the plan.
My suspicion is they will indeed struggle. I reckon they have factored in they can miss the target date and all Ofcom will do is warn them. Therefore they can delay it by 6 months.

CapEx amounted to 654 million euros in the January-September period, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year, principally devoted to LTE expansion as the Company continues to expand its indoor coverage to reach 98% by 2017.
I feel the 4G LTE commitment is a bit of a red herring and rather unrealistic.
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Old 29-10-2016, 18:43
mrgs12
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Is there an opt out clause for indoor coverage obligation in areas where the majority of buildings are thick walled? My area upgraded to 3G/4G but it still noted on coverage checker Ok outdoors. Variable indoors not suitable for tablets/smartphone internet use. 2G is no better.
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