I have been interested to read opinions popping up about the levels of public support various celebs based on the patterns we see emerging from those relegated to DO. Most seem to predicate a degree of voter loyalty to a given couple, which it seems reasonable to assume has been the case in previous years. So, for eg, many write off Abbey as a serious contender to win because we now know she had the least public support last weekend and, it is assumed, that even allowing for a sympathy bump she can't make up the deficit in public votes when the field narrows.
I wonder if in fact free on-line voting has sizeably increased the numbers of votes cast and led to far more volatility in vote shares, simply because many more casual viewers who, unlike most on DS, are not particularly invested in one particular couple, are prepared to vote when it is free and have a lot of votes to spread around. Even as a long term fan of the programme, I have voted for completely different dancers each week this series when in the past I would only vote in the latter stages of the competition or for a particular favourite (2 series only). I have a feeling that the voting patterns may be far less predictable this year and depend much more on each week's performance, story line and even dance order than ever before and we can't draw the same conclusions as previously from DO's.

Things to consider.

In my opinion, very few people actually bother to vote, given the number of people who watch the programme. I remember once they gave out the total amount of cash raised by the phone vote when it was linked to CIN. Although the amount of money was considerable (the BBC would be pleased to give out that information) when you worked out the number of calls that represented, compared with the total number of viewers, it wasn't so much.

If the numbers were considerable the BBC would be crowing about it.

If most people can't be assed to phone, many of those wouldn't bother to find the website and vote on line.

"I'm one of those."

I think the option will appeal to some, but I don't think the voting patterns would be disproportional to the phone vote.
Of course it does give more opportunities for more "sheer bloody mindedness" voting for the popular comparatively inept dancers, but they'll eventually get voted out when they end up in the bottom two. It just means the "average" dancer might just go out a bit earlier.

One final which did make a big thing of the number of votes cast (in the final) was series 3's at 5 million. Given multiple voting we wouldn't be talking 5 million separate viewers out of 10 million watching so the proportion is not the majority of viewers I guess.

You make some very good points. I hadn't given it much thought before, but my voting pattern is uncannily like yours! I rarely make my mind up as to who is going to be my favourite until about this time in the competition - it's all about narrowing down a bunch of people whose dancing and/or personalities I enjoy. And I don't normally vote (ie, pay money) until I feel it might actually make a difference.

But, with online voting, I've been able to vote five times for free and have so far scattered them around like confetti. Also, I don't think I have once voted for my favourite dance, being confident that their position on the leader-board would keep them safe. So I've voted for those who I've felt would be in danger. That makes me a member of the demographic who consigned Abbey to the dance-off last week, so I should publicly apologise to her, as she is a favourite of mine.

However, I abandon my scattergun approach once I've made my mind up and pinned my colours to the mast (which, thanks to getting cross with John Barrowman yesterday, has just happened - Go Team Nartem!). From now on, I'll use my votes more directly for the contestant(s) I want to see progress.

Is this pattern repeated throughout the country? I have no idea, but I would have thought that the people who vote online will have the same preferences as those who pay for a telephone vote.

This is a long-winded way of saying yes, I do think online voting will have an effect on things. However, I think it will calm down by the final - we usually get the best dancers and most popular contestants in the final, and I don't expect this year to be any different, free online voting notwithstanding.

I would suspect that the final would be the peak voting show, with the earlier shows dramatically less. Also as you say, there would be many casting multiple votes.
So I think the total number of people actually voting wouldn't be any more than 10% of the viewers, probably much less through the series.

We won't get the full pattern yet (or at least as much as you can see patches off from who is in subsequent dance-offs) but I think the voting has been reasonably predictable so far. The only things that even mildly puzzled me were Vanessa being out so early, but then she was really annoying and Rachel not getting the Nice Young Lady Telly Presenter vote (but then she's on another channel on a show with a tiny audience, and has Sophie sopping up the middle-class vote). Looking at the cast at the beginning it was easy to peg Patrick, Julien and Abbey as being potentially unpopular based on previous series and they have been.

Personally I'm voting the same as always - for the person in the bottom half of the leaderboard who I like the most, because nobody in the top half of the leaderboard is in danger of going home. (IIRC it's only ever happened once and I didnae give a hoot about Zoe Lucker so it doesn't count). I'm just doing it 5 times instead of 1 I guess.

I've voted pretty much the same all series I think first week I voted twice for Dave, twice for Ben, once for my favourite Natalie.

But since then it's been 3 votes for Ben, 2 for Natalie because he's lower on the leaderboard.

As time goes on and Ben deserves to go imo, I'll transfer all my votes to Natalie.

That's a change from other series when I've pretty much either not voted at all or voted only from the semi final on.

I think there might be quite a lot of people voting like you which may inflate votes for someone like Ben (who I suspect for a number of reasons is polling very high atm) at this stage without indicating long term support. Maybe this has always happened but I think people are becoming more tactically aware. For eg, one could argue that any vote for Natalie is a wasted vote (if you also want others to survive at this stage) before the latter stages since she alone is safe in the DO. That's rather a view I have taken but doesn't mean I won't vote for her at the end of the competition.

I'm quite surprised Fiona has lasted this long (over Deborah and Rachel for eg) although Anton is probably a much more positive factor in the equation than he is generally held to be on DS. Equally, I have thrown a vote her way most weeks now that I have 5 when I wouldn't normally have done so because it's free.

I have been scattering my votes but from now on Natalie is getting five.

I have long given up trying to discern why some of Anton's partners (Widdy, Kate, Laila, Fiona) "take" and others don't (Lesley, Jerry, Patsy, Gillian).

It does seem like the more rubbish you are and the more Anton can take the piss out of you, then the longer you last.

I thought Lesley and Patsy did quite well although I didn't watch in those days? Given she was in her 50's and a bit of a 'marmite' personality, Lesley came third, so they must have got a fair few votes. I wasn't a bit surprised re Jerry - seeing her over the years jigging listlessly at Stones gigs I knew she doesn't have any sense of rhythm and was only doing the show (she has total contempt for Reality TV) to piss off Mick. Gillian was a surprise, though.

Lesley was in four bottom 2s in a row and right at the top of the leaderboard (either 1st or 2nd) every week she wasn't there. She always got just enough public vote to scrape by, but she was never popular. Patsy it's more hard to tell because she survived a couple of mid-table positions early on, but her vote really died at the end.

You are a living computer of Strictly info.
Respect!

It was odd, because I think Anton's most genuine connection with a partner was with Lesley but...I guess she was just that shrill.

Both hard grafters from working class backgrounds who are relentless self promoters with classical tastes (ie perceived as 'elitist' and 'uppity' by many). Obviously, that's worse if you're a woman. Especially a middle aged one who won't be quiet.

It seems most people are using the 5 votes voting tactically . I only managed to vote once using the online voting and I also voted tactically .

I don't have a fav this year but last year when Kimberely was my fav I voted for her after she ended in the bottom two .

In the past I would never waste money voting tactically but only for someone I want to win .

Apart from Abbey there have been no shocks in the bottom two so far and there is always an Abbey-style shock around this stage every year. I don't think the free vote is changing anything as the competition is pretty much sticking to past form.

I love the fact that you can vote as a family for free. We used to wait until the later part of the series before voting.

I voted 35 times under 7 diff registrations

You don't even have to have an email address to vote. We made up about 10 different usernames last night to get 50 votes. Ridiculous really.

I started a post a while ago enquiring whether we have a different type of voting demographic this year, with quite a few people actually voting for the first time through free votes.

I tend to not have a favourite, and vote on what I see.I personally used up nearly all my votes on Sophie after her Charleston and have never voted for her since.

I am optimistic that this years winner will be the best dancer and not because he. or she is 'Hot'.

Agree with all this.

I only used to vote on the final & so the free online option has changed how I vote. Now I give two votes to my absolute favourite of the week & the other three votes go to those who I feel made it to 2nd, 3rd & 4th places in my very own 'Enjoyability poll'. (Combo of talent, progress & watchability)

Looking at my own voting pattern, my personal winner could be one of six celebs.