I think it'll be Luke VS Hannah.

Has DS been through so much crazy that enough people think that the acts in the last two slots are in danger?

Lightning can strike twice so be prepared - personally I thought she was damn good but I don't think Tamera is that popular sadly

Facebook votes are heavily linked to teen girls I would think. Continued rumours of Tamera's romance with Sam C don't do her any favours with that camp. If you recall, the week Ella Henderson went was the week she was accused of breaking George Shelley's heart by messing around with the one who wears the most make up in Union J (is it Josh?). Not saying there was any truth to this, but this is the sort of thing young girls pick up on and don't like.

They tried to remove the diva tag from Tamera on The Xtra Factor last night by branding Rough Copy, Hannah and Abi Divas (in a comical way - well, as comical as Matt can be). But I expect it may still be turning people off her.

It is interesting to have a look at this stuff. These are the positions based on the X Factor FB page likes after last nights performances (taken at about 10.30 this morning) -

1. Sam Bailey
2. Nick McDonald
3. Rough Copy
4. Abi Alton
5. Sam Callahan
6. Tamera Foster
7. Hannah Barrett
8. Luke Friend

However, the following provides a different story. These are the positions based on the individual FB pages with the highest number of likes/followers -

1. Tamera Foster
2. Nick McDonald
3. Sam Callahan
4. Luke Friend
5. Sam Bailey
6. Rough Copy
7.Abi Alton
8. Hannah Barrett

Speaking of Tee,

One of the producer accounts tweeted this.

On the other hand, her ex called her a fame whore.

Wait, Luke has the least likes? For real?

Those fan pages are dodgy. afaik Only Sam C, Luke, Rough Copy, Abi, and Nicholas have verified ones. The Nicky fan page that's second to Tamera isn't even real, and it doesn't help that some acts have a billion pages for them.

Yes. The bottom 3 from the top list are pretty close with Luke trending in 8th of the 8 contestants, some 400+ likes behind Hannah and Tamera. Neither one of those 3 has yet managed to gain 5,000 likes for last nights performances. Sam Bailey by contrast sits on an amazing 24,600+ likes and counting.......

Speaking of the Internet, the three Boys have the lowest number of YouTube views, followed by the non-alpha Girls, RC, Tamera, then Sam B has the most views. Also, for some reason, since last week, Nicholas's YT views nosedived (he was near the top in the first 3 weeks, then he was near the bottom last week and ditto this week).

Facebook likes are a load of rubbish Tamera and Sam C were also on last so the others obviously would get more likes than them as they were put up first .

Ive noticed how Nicholas has nosedived with youtube views over the past few weeks but hey that didnt stop Christopher

However Abi and Sam C are trailing way behind with number of likes atm, they also have a handful of dislikes. Hannah, Luke, Nicholas and Rough copy have similar amount of likes(1300-1500) then its Tamera and Sam B.

Obviously a chunk of people that watch Abi and Sam C are just there to do some hating. On another note, I noticed that this year's stuff has more likes and dislikes than that of 3 years ago, at least for the acts that faded away after the show.

I'm going to throw another league into the mix, sorry

My company built a social analytics, deep listening, influencer identification and influencer campaign platform for a client earlier in the year. It's solid and has a slightly unique thing about it.

It listens in across social media outlets (FB, Twitter, Google/YouTube, Instagram and Vimeo (irrelevant to the contestants)).

It checks the top level stuff such as profile "audience" (FB Page likes, followers), "interaction" (retweets, comments, tweets, content likes) and also runs a deep listening mechanism that looks for public discussion such as mentions, hashtags etc.

It also looks at audience patterns and gives weight via a gamification engine to engagement patterns that indicate an invested audience and provides a "popularity" score. That's not dissimular to the idea behind the Klout score (if anyones heard of that)... but for "popularity".


I decided to plug the contestants in just before JH to see if there is (or is not) a correlation between social media popularity and the result.

It managed to predict Hannah/Miss Dynamix and Tamera/KR in the bottom two. Wk1 and 2 I guess it got but that's hardly worth considering as there was a lower block that were all drifting around together.


Last night (Saturday) it had (lowest to highest):
Hannah
Abi
Tamera
luke
rough copy
Sam B
Sam C
Nic (way out ahead)


Today (Sunday, 11:21am) it has (lowest to highest):
Score is a normalised popularity score, similar in concept to the Klout score. The order is the same but the scores have tightened into three blocks plus Nicholas who is basically in his own little league and is almost as popular as erm... some smaller national brands, but not Mashable/Forbes/TechCrunch popularity. None of them are really brand popular.



Hannah: 751
Abi: 912
Tamera: 15,327
Luke Friend: 29,959
Rough Copy: 32,479
Sam B: 101,838
Sam C: 103,560
Nicholas: 213,456


Note (Sam C): His audience to engagement ratio is poor so his score could be grossly misleading. In other words, his metrics show that he has a smaller core audience (who are significant, but nowhere near as big as his overall score would indicate) who interact rampantly, the bulk of interaction being sharing rather than discussion. others such as Sam B, Luke and Abi provoke discussion which is more valuable.


Another is RC, they have the same pattern going on.


Tamera may be subject to massive multi-voting due to her B2 last weekend so her score may not represent her and could if it correlates again pull RC or Luke into the bottom 3 area.

Luke and Abi have a slightly unique engagement trend, most of them boost through Sat and Sun (till the afternoon) and then calm, they tend to get a kick in across the afternoon.

If Abi and Luke do that again, they could fly up the league. Abi for example was near the bottom on Sunday morning but was 4th from top come the result show. Tamera hovered at 15k and didn't pick up till 6/7pm and reached 32k

Last weekend they reached (approx):
Nic 280k
Sam C 220k
Sam B 250k
Abi 90k
Luke: 80k
RC: 70k
Hannah: 40k
KR: 35k
Tamera: 35k


Make of that what you will, I'll make my prediction later, hopefully I can get a hat-trick but I'm not as confident as there are a few unknown quantities this week (i.e. Tameras rebound vote, RC and Sam C's ratios).

Also you can't guarantee that social popularity will translate into votes.

interesting post , just quoted that last bit as it must be hard to translate the stats from social media onto voting

people are almost certainly going to try and discredit your conclusions as they don't agree with the output from the metric you are using but systems such as these are fairly well established in market research since the boom of social media

Well, it took some courage to post that here tbh. I have been sharing the metrics via PM until now and a bit in an appreciation thread.

It isn't easy to translate into voting, I set them up to see if social media popularity from the platform translates or not and to see what their social media popularity looks like as that stuff interests me. So far it's got it right but I can't say it always will.

Also, I'm not too concerned about people trying to discredit it. The platform was built as a commercial product for brands, not to prove XF voting patterns. It was built with the likes of Klout in mind (and has been tested against it and others) and is gaining traction with brands and has been scrutinized heavily already so I'm not too worried about what people think of them. Take them as they are or ignore them, those are the metrics it's pulled out so far this weekend.

Those numbers are also day by day.

I'm a sucker for analytics (not that I know how to do this with the show), so this made me smile.

Sam C's thing seems to make sense (I think he's still relying on his pre-show fanbase), but I'm surprised that RC is on the same boat.

Very interesting.

I am conflicted, though.

I hope it's accurate because Nicholas is my favourite.

But I hope it's not accurate because Sam C should really be the next one to go.

I still haven't got a clue to be honest. Do you understand all this and could you translate it, if you do?

yep appreciate the methodology you are are using wasn't designed for this specific purpose but I would be very surprised if the money people behind the show weren't using something similar given how important social media has become in terms of marketing

I would be gobsmacked if they are not and I would be very surprised if they aren't campaigning.

That's another thing (campaigning and by extension influencers), a celebrity or media influencer tweeting out about an act (particularly if it's consistent) may have a black box effect on popularity that we cannot see.

Take Rough Copy, who probably have the most music industry influencers. They are registering as having three pretty good autonomous influencers.

1Xtra, Absolute Radio, BBC Radio 1

I don't think a lot of people who are active on social media realise how much profiling there is being done based on their likes and dislikes by market research companies

Hehe, yeah, they are big business tbh. Our platform is comprehensive (but it's also ethical and only uses public interaction). Some platforms are a tad sinister, like there are some that will listen into private FB discussion if it can find a channel into it (i.e. through other apps you use that have deals with the research co).

He was the best SINGER by far last night. (and yes I do know what I'm talking about and that isn't based on any fandom but 30 years in the recording industry)

He is the only one not to hide behind vocal gymnastics and sings pure - What the kiddies on here don't understand is that that is far harder to do than riffing all over the place.

Sam B was also good but a bit shouty and that song has been over-done to death so that wasn't a plus point.

He is actually quite mediocre. I've heard many male singers at his age who were much better than him during your 30 years in the recording industry

Exactly, take last year for example....

Maloney was seemingly the favourite to be eliminated every week but when the voting figures were released it turned out that he had been at the top of the poll every week until Week 8