Mark and Ben will fill 2 of them

Just checked Mark's and producers don't seem to like him half as much as this board, he's had a horrible run

3rd of 6 on Friday
11th of 15
6th of 14
3rd of 13
8th of 12
6th of 11
4th of 10
7th of 9

He's the one almost consistently going in the first half so Susanna can stay in the last. not even a sniff of going first or last or even next to last.

Thanks guys.

So the next question I guess is how far running order impacts compared to other factors, if you look at our three survivors of the bottom two (Mark twice, of course and he has been nearer the front end which is supposedly a good slot also) they I think have a spread of slots, but I am not sure if it's really more to do with marking in the case of Abbey and Patrick, people thinking they would be safe.

Natalie's got a similar spread of slots to those two, so does the fact that she has been safe mean that she has had her vote hold up for her better than those two?

I think it is just too hard to say as things may well change week on week, neither Abbey nor Patrick has ended up in the bottom two more than once so, so far, their bounceback has been sustainable.

(Conscious that I am possibly rambling now in order to try and simply say "I think the vote depends on all sorts, running order may or may not be one for some couples")

Thanks for all the Stats.

I definitely had the impression that Susanna was almost always in the latest slots and this confirms it.

Unfair tactic from the Beeb I feel.

It's been mentioned above that Mark's tended to have early slots, do people think that's why he keeps being in the bottom two now?

I think this does show you who's in favour with producers and who isn't. Patrick wasn't to start and now is getting much better positions, Ashley and Sophie are generally getting worse, Mark and Ben are obviously considered filler by the producers which I guess is fair enough, but not fair on them, they should have had the opportunity to go last before Susanna and Natalie got to go last twice (Natalie 1 1/2 because of Fri/Sat split of first week )

Abbey is coming off second best to Susanna too.

I'm guessing it's becoming more apparent who the chosen few are.

I think the first slot is considered a good one - other than that the first half leading to the middle of the draw is a bit poor. People tend to remember the first out and then everyone else gets mushed in the mix.

Hit the opening with a good dance, fill the middle with the average dancers dancing an average to forgetable dance and then finsh off with a couple more big hitters.

I still don't think it means that much on its own, there are other factors. Though unless the running order changes radically from week to week you can't really tell.

Lies, damned lies and statistics...

I don't think the early to middle slots attact many of the floating voters, which is probably the biggest negative.

Running order is a factor, but I don't think it has a huge influence, especially as we're not working under a straight public vote system.

I don't think we know a lot about the public vote from the results so far.

Abbey : We know was bottom of the public vote three votes ago, but has had safe leaderboard positions since. Theoretically she could have got no bounce-back whatsoever and still been bottom of the public vote every time without too much twisting.

Patrick : Had a bit of a drop three weeks ago, beaten by people whose public vote has since proven to not be consistently strong (Rachel, Mark, Fiona, Dave). Since then, like Abbey, has been kept solidly safe, and again, like Abbey, could have finished bottom with the public every week.

Ben : Has proved to be the most popular of the bottom half of the leaderboard, but even then, consistently decent marks and mid-table positions means we can't quite call him a People's Champion yet.

Mark : Was clearly somewhat popular early on, but was only consistently beating vote ragamuffins like Vanessa and Julian. The only people still in we know he ever beat are Abbey and Patrick.

Sophie : Has survived a few dodgy slots that might have taken her if she had no vote, but nothing spectacular.

Susanna : Next to nothing.

Natalie & Ashley : Even nexter to nothing.

Susanna always manages to get right in the middle of camera in the Tesspit as well. It's like we're not allowed to forget she is there. I wonder if the BBC have got some kind of 'Fiona Bruce' primetime presenting roles for in the pipeline after Strictly and are trying to raise her profile? She always gets good slots, never gets asked to do a 'Goldfinger Rumba' stupid routine and is always high on the leaderboard even though others have danced better than her. Or maybe they know she is quite a divisive celeb and are keeping her in as this year's ratings grabbing Snowdon/DVO finale hate-figure? (Btw, 'Hate-figure' is just a turn-of-phrase. I don't believe people actually hate her).

I don't think hate is necessary in order to be an exponent of a conspiracy theory

The conspiracy theorists are having a field day!

The BBC are so worried about scandals nowadays that I cannot see them risking accusations of favouritism in running order or seating position in the Tess Pit.

I think people generally write hateful threads or posts about celebrities they perceive as a threat (ie think they have a chance of winning) hence why there was a lot of negativity about Louis and Denise (and I suppose Victoria to a certain extent because she clearly had very strong public support pulling her through) and now Natalie, Abbey and Susanna are the main targets this year.

There were some nasty posts about Sophie in the weeks following her charleston but it seems to have died down and now she seems to be generally well liked but in a "like her but not her dancing" way. I suspect that people have stopped bothering to be nasty about her because she's no longer regarded as a serious contender.

I guess Sophie has been in a few precarious positions and survived but I'm not sure she's popular enough to carry her through to the final if her dancing doesn't improve. I don't think women on Strictly are able to coast by on being very pretty and very nice.

I'm an Abbey fan, but if she is anything other than last or second to last in the public vote I'd be surprised. Fully expecting her to be back in the dance off this week.

Maybe, like many of the others, she is not a comedy candidate and she can actually dance rather well?

Has Natalie ever been asked to do a 'Goldfinger Rumba' stupid routine? Or Patrick? Or Sophie? Or Abbey?



As conspiracy theories go, a creditable one.

LOL! Watch back the end of her Halloween VT (sounds familiar on this forum??). Bit spooky that a VT comes to life on a forum, by the way

Think that people have realised that hitting on her is like clubbing a baby seal to death, so you have to be creative.



Some people judge her improvement on her Charleston, which is kinda laughable really (just like Susanna ever beating that Paso).

We are long past Halloween, except for the end of that VT obviously.

I agree with this concept. After all, Lisa was vastly over-praised and grotesquely over-marked and seemed to be kept in as long as possible because, as we only later learned, there was other work lined up for her which would not have worked if she'd gone in week 2 - Strictly Confidential, interviewing on SCD, spots on ITT, hosting next year's Tour... I suspect the same is happening for Susanna. She's over-confident and knows how to milk applause, etc. How long did she lie still on the floor, 'overcome'? I would even contend that the cheers and ovation were for Kevin, not her, on Saturday: she just happened to be his partner for his Paso, mastered skirt-wafting and took it to a whole new level.

Discuss.

Not so much the public vote, but here is how DS has voted in the polls on the forum this weekend (as of now):

Susanna + 228 (265 - 37)
Sophie + 78 (94 - 16)
Ashley + 36 (50 - 14)
Patrick + 22 (37 - 15)
Abbey + 10 (55 - 45)
Natalie - 19 (91 - 110)
Mark -54 (19 - 73)
Ben - 62 (17 - 79)

Doesn't say that much, as for instance Ben is probably doing a lot better in the vote (assume that in these instances the 1 vote is going to Susanna/Natalie instead). But apart from him, it might be a fair image of how the public vote is going (though do you take the saldo or do you look at the favourite couple votes, very important in Natalie's case).

Though this does show that Natalie is very polarising and as it seems would be easily beaten by Susanna at this point (no matter what kind of calculation you would use).

It will be interesting to see if the semi-final vote is decided by dance off or not (if that is not the case then the judges will have to throw someone to the wolves or just create another votegate..........everybody lives!!)..

Of course

But you could argue Susanna's slots are the best because she is fairing well in the public vote and BBC give Viewers the peak slot for her as they know she is one of the celebs most viewers look forward to seeing.

Also same with Sophie and Dave. (Near start or near end)

I still think whatever slot you get the worst is obviously 2nd. Because you tend to be forgettable and just after the person who opened the show.

It is, quick stats from series 1 showing the bottom 2 or straight elimination positions from the running order (no finals)

1 21
2 36
3 29
4 22
5 23
6 13
7 14
8 6
9 5
10 5
11 1
12 + none.

(In case of two dances in a week the first time dancing is counted. In those instances going first is worse than second.)

Its the death slot for any talent show.

BBC gave Ann Widdecombe it for 2 weeks in a row I think to try and get her off the show when her time was obviously up.

I said on another thread that being talked about good or bad is better than not being talked about at all. I find it interesting that there are more threads about Austin Healey than Ashley, Ben & Patrick, although there have been a few more stabs at getting Patrick talked about that seemed to die off. The 'buzz' this year is all about the 4 girls. Love em or hate em.

Just watch one of the boys win it now