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Old 18-11-2013, 01:13
MattXfactor
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Now that Sam Callahan has exited the X factor with Luke Friend Joining him in the bottom two I do believe a clearer picture of where this race is going and how this race is going to be won has been made clear.

With Luke friend in the bottom two I feel we can effectively rule him out of winning the competition and on the back of previous weeks I think it is also safe to Rule out Hannah B.

This leaves us with a 4 Horse race, Sam B vs Nicholas vs Rough Copy vs Tamera ,

At this point I firmly believe that Sam Bailey is ahead in the voting (although I do believe the gap between her & Nicholas will of closed after his prime slot and most notable song of the evening) , Tamera in my opinion is probably trailing by a considerable but not yet unbeatable distance, I think she would need an absolutely huge performance now very soon (within next 2 weeks) to get the ball rolling and gain her momentum back but at this point I think ruling her out entirely would be wrong.

With Rough Copy I feel like they have probably came 3rd/4th every week, I don't feel like they have had a terrible week yet by any standards but I would be quite frankly shocked if they won the whole show, they don't seem to have enough like-ability at this point to carry them all the way.

Nicholas Mcdonald on saturday took a step in the right direction towards closing the gap towards Sam Bailey, I do firmly believe that Nicholas is the biggest threat to Sam Bailey at this point, I think his age and style of singing is one that will get him a big amount of votes across all types of people, unlike say Tamera who I can't see getting many votes from the older voters, I feel like Nicholas definitely can get them votes as well as the younger vote.

Finally Sam Bailey, this race could become a one horse race if things go her way over the next 1-2 weeks, e.g if she is given a couple of good singing slots coupled with big well known songs I think she could make the margin too big, after this week I think Nicholas probably closed the gap on her although I doubt it was a huge closing of the gap (maybe 2-3%) I'd say at this point she is winning the race clearly but is definitely not over the line just yet (no matter what these newspaper leaks try to tell you) , an interesting point to note is that with the other acts all being of fairly similar age and Sam being older, the eliminations of people like Sam C today, Luke friend in future etc. may help Nicholas Mcdonald because I feel fans of Luke/Sam C are far more likely to vote for Nicholas after their favorite act is eliminated than they are Sam.

Overall at this point I'd have the % chance of each person winning as follows:

Hannah B 1%
Luke Friend 4%
Rough Copy 15%
Tamera 15%
Nicholas Mcdonald 25%
Sam Bailey 40%

Hope to hear some discussion from everyone! Thanks
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:15
mimik1uk
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can I ask why you are ruling out luke and Hannah based purely on being in the bottom two at some point , but not tamera who was also there two weeks ago ?
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:28
MattXfactor
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can I ask why you are ruling out luke and Hannah based purely on being in the bottom two at some point , but not tamera who was also there two weeks ago ?
I think Hannah will re appear in the bottom two very shortly & maybe I am being too harsh to rule Luke out already but I definitely think he should be considered as the biggest underdog left in (assuming that Hannah can't win) , Tamera is who I feel the producers of the show will try to shove down our throats going towards the final and that will give her more of a chance than Luke/Hannah. Also with Tamera being in the bottom two a while ago and not re appearing in the bottom twice since then compared to Hannah having re appeared in the bottom two last week having already been in the bottom two before then shows that I don't think her kick back popularity from being in the bottom two is sustainable for any period of time.
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:30
mimik1uk
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I think Hannah will re appear in the bottom two very shortly & maybe I am being too harsh to rule Luke out already but I definitely think he should be considered as the biggest underdog left in (assuming that Hannah can't win) , Tamera is who I feel the producers of the show will try to shove down our throats going towards the final and that will give her more of a chance than Luke/Hannah. Also with Tamera being in the bottom two a while ago and not re appearing in the bottom twice since then compared to Hannah having re appeared in the bottom two last week having already been in the bottom two before then shows that I don't think her kick back popularity from being in the bottom two is sustainable for any period of time.
no prob

was just wondering why you didn't mention it
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:38
steve2013
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Can i ask why your ruling out Luke but not Tamara? If your to rule Luke out because he has been B2 then you surely also have to rule out Tamara?
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:45
MattXfactor
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Can i ask why your ruling out Luke but not Tamara? If your to rule Luke out because he has been B2 then you surely also have to rule out Tamara?
"I think Hannah will re appear in the bottom two very shortly & maybe I am being too harsh to rule Luke out already but I definitely think he should be considered as the biggest underdog left in (assuming that Hannah can't win) , Tamera is who I feel the producers of the show will try to shove down our throats going towards the final and that will give her more of a chance than Luke/Hannah. Also with Tamera being in the bottom two a while ago and not re appearing in the bottom twice since then compared to Hannah having re appeared in the bottom two last week having already been in the bottom two before then shows that I don't think her kick back popularity from being in the bottom two is sustainable for any period of time."
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:46
NathanScott
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I think Tamera is completely out of the race.

Nick and Sam B are in the final. The last spot is between Rough Copy and Luke.
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:57
MattXfactor
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I think Tamera is completely out of the race.

Nick and Sam B are in the final. The last spot is between Rough Copy and Luke.
Interesting to read all the responses about Tamera, I'm not sure why I feel like she is still in there with a chance just a gut feeling I guess. Out of interest why do you see Luke having a better shot than her?
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Old 18-11-2013, 01:59
mimik1uk
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luke could benefit from a transfer of votes from sam C fans

tamera and Hannah are probably splitting votes and both still being in risks the other being in the bottom two
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:05
MattXfactor
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luke could benefit from a transfer of votes from sam C fans

tamera and Hannah are probably splitting votes and both still being in risks the other being in the bottom two
Agree on that, Do you think that because of vote splitting if Nicholas can reach a 1 v 1 situation with Sam Bailey he will stand a strong chance due to Sam C/Tamera/Luke fans all more likely to break his way rather than Sams? Also any idea when they scrap the final showdown and just boot out the lowest vote person?
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:11
mimik1uk
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not sure if you have seen the thread fizix has done on indicators from social media but according to that Nicholas is actually way out in front of everyone in terms of popularity , its not an exact science and obviously doesn't translate exactly into voting but it does give an indication of support, so if it came down to a Nicholas v sam final two then hes probably got every chance , especially as you say he has potentially most to gain from crossover votes

afaik the last time there is a sing-off is the final five , but they have changed the rules before
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:12
fireemblemcraze
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I think Tamera is completely out of the race.

Nick and Sam B are in the final. The last spot is between Rough Copy and Luke.
Why is Luke in with a better shot than Tamera?

Tamera was sabotaged today by the producers, didn't give the best performance and yet was still able to beat Luke who wasn't sabotaged and delivered an amazing performance? And they've both B2'd once so far...so I don't understand...

I think below Nick and Sam B, everyone is actually fairly close together.

Also I think Nick and Sam B's demos are fairly similar. I think they are potentially splitting votes...
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:14
mimik1uk
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Why is Luke in with a better shot than Tamera?

Tamera was sabotaged today by the producers, didn't give the best performance and yet was still able to beat Luke who wasn't sabotaged and delivered an amazing performance? And they've both B2'd once so far...so I don't understand...

I think below Nick and Sam B, everyone is actually fairly close together.

Also I think Nick and Sam B's demos are fairly similar. I think they are potentially splitting votes...
how exactly was she sabotaged again ?

did they force her to forget her words ?
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:15
mmpfb
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Why is Luke in with a better shot than Tamera?

Tamera was sabotaged today by the producers, didn't give the best performance and yet was still able to beat Luke who wasn't sabotaged and delivered an amazing performance? And they've both B2'd once so far...so I don't understand...

I think below Nick and Sam B, everyone is actually fairly close together.

Also I think Nick and Sam B's demos are fairly similar. I think they are potentially splitting votes...
How on earth was Tamera sabotaged?
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:23
MattXfactor
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not sure if you have seen the thread fizix has done on indicators from social media but according to that Nicholas is actually way out in front of everyone in terms of popularity , its not an exact science and obviously doesn't translate exactly into voting but it does give an indication of support, so if it came down to a Nicholas v sam final two then hes probably got every chance , especially as you say he has potentially most to gain from crossover votes

afaik the last time there is a sing-off is the final five , but they have changed the rules before
Yes I read that thread very interesting, seems accurate apart from with bounceback votes (e.g with Hannah tonight). Will be interesting to see how the casual voters would break in a Nicholas v Sam Final.
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:25
fireemblemcraze
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how exactly was she sabotaged again ?

did they force her to forget her words ?
Sorry but it looked so staged.

Also if you think setting up a VT saying that she's been struggling with words then have all the judges continuously point out...it seems blindingly obvious that it was staged. I mean the VT basically told you to keep a look for a word slip! How did a VT made the night before suddenly predict she would forget her words in that performance? Why on earth would the producers do that anyway? Then the judges couldn't have made it more blindingly obvious. It was all set up.
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:28
mimik1uk
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Sorry but it looked so staged.

Also if you think setting up a VT saying that she's been struggling with words then have all the judges continuously point out...it seems blindingly obvious that it was staged. I mean the VT basically told you to keep a look for a word slip! How did a VT made the night before suddenly predict she would forget her words in that performance? Why on earth would the producers do that anyway? Then the judges couldn't have made it more blindingly obvious. It was all set up.
sorry but completely disagree

imo she panicked briefly after hitting a horrible note in the previous line , lost her composure as a result which led to forgetting the words

and if anything forgetting the words may have saved her last night as it could have easily led to a bit of a sympathy vote and helped to deflect attention away from a pretty poor vocal

and why would they even want to sabotage the "chosen one" ?
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:40
fireemblemcraze
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sorry but completely disagree

imo she panicked briefly after hitting a horrible note in the previous line , lost her composure as a result which led to forgetting the words

and if anything forgetting the words may have saved her last night as it could have easily led to a bit of a sympathy vote and helped to deflect attention away from a pretty poor vocal

and why would they even want to sabotage the "chosen one" ?
That really doesn't mean anything when it was highlighted so heavily in the VT that she may forget her words! Also combine the fact that she had distracting staging and 'urban' dancers and stuck inside a cube and a weird urban twist on a well known popular song (you yourself pointed out that one!) - how was it not set up?

How on earth can you call her the chosen one when so far nothing has happened besides 4/6 favourable slots in the running order? Hannah has had 4/6 too. Rough Copy has had 3/6 (well one exact middle), Luke has had 3/6. Every act bar Luke has had a pimp slot. The judges always have found one fault or another with her, last week it was her not connecting, this week it was a lyric mishap, the week before during HER PIMP SLOT they called her a Beyonce impersonator! Why on earth would they label their golden girl an impersonator in a slot when everyone's going to remember her in?

Is the chosen one not clearly Sam Bailey? The constant hyping of her by everyone involved on the show. Every week everyone without fail mentions her name. Every week whether judges are asked who was their favorite of the night, who's album they would buy, who's the winner blah blah blah, they say it's her. Yes she is brilliant, but tonight she wasn't so much. In spite of delivering an underwhelming performance of Something it was praised to high heaven and Gary and Louis said they would definitely buy her records!! Please if that's not pimping and favouring then I don't know what is!
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:40
mimik1uk
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the other aspect is that its just as likely by going about the song change at short notice in the VT and the problems with her remembering the lyrics they were trying to lower peoples expectations of what to expect from her , so if she did then come out and do it well it makes it appear really good due to her being better than people expected
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:42
mimik1uk
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That really doesn't mean anything when it was highlighted so heavily in the VT that she may forget her words! Also combine the fact that she had distracting staging and 'urban' dancers and stuck inside a cube and a weird urban twist on a well known popular song (you yourself pointed out that one!) - how was it not set up?

How on earth can you call her the chosen one when so far nothing has happened besides 4/6 favourable slots in the running order? Hannah has had 4/6 too. Rough Copy has had 3/6 (well one exact middle), Luke has had 3/6. Every act bar Luke has had a pimp slot. The judges always have found one fault or another with her, last week it was her not connecting, this week it was a lyric mishap, the week before during HER PIMP SLOT they called her a Beyonce impersonator! Why on earth would they label their golden girl an impersonator in a slot when everyone's going to remember her in?

Is the chosen one not clearly Sam Bailey? The constant hyping of her by everyone involved on the show. Every week everyone without fail mentions her name. Every week whether judges are asked who was their favorite of the night, who's album they would buy, who's the winner blah blah blah, they say it's her. Yes she is brilliant, but tonight she wasn't so much. In spite of delivering an underwhelming performance of Something it was praised to high heaven and Gary and Louis said they would definitely buy her records!! Please if that's not pimping and favouring then I don't know what is!
you really need to look up the principle of Occam's razor that I mentioned the other day
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:45
mimik1uk
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one other thing

if this was all the producers trying to sabotage her why on earth would she go along with it and deliberately forget her words if it risked her place in the competition ?
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:50
fireemblemcraze
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you really need to look up the principle of Occam's razor that I mentioned the other day
The simpler explanation is the better...yes that is what Miss Marple in AC books...but wherever it comes from, I'm not denying the simplest is the best explanation.

And the simplest explanation is that Sam B is the favoured one of the producers, I mean is it not obvious? And wouldn't a female Overs winner bring the 10 series into a full circle ready for the next lot with Simon? And what of the constant praising of her and gold song choices for her - like New York New York + My Heart Will Go On + Enough is Enough while ballady no Ain't Nobody choices for Tamera??? I'm sorry but in spite of all my reasoning, if you still think Tamera is being favoured over Sam B then fine. We'll agree to disagree.
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:51
mimik1uk
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i'm not saying she is , i'm trying to work out what you think their motives are for sabotaging her and why she would willingly go along with it like she would have to have done ?
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:53
Rangermick
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That really doesn't mean anything when it was highlighted so heavily in the VT that she may forget her words! Also combine the fact that she had distracting staging and 'urban' dancers and stuck inside a cube and a weird urban twist on a well known popular song (you yourself pointed out that one!) - how was it not set up?

How on earth can you call her the chosen one when so far nothing has happened besides 4/6 favourable slots in the running order? Hannah has had 4/6 too. Rough Copy has had 3/6 (well one exact middle), Luke has had 3/6. Every act bar Luke has had a pimp slot. The judges always have found one fault or another with her, last week it was her not connecting, this week it was a lyric mishap, the week before during HER PIMP SLOT they called her a Beyonce impersonator! Why on earth would they label their golden girl an impersonator in a slot when everyone's going to remember her in?

Is the chosen one not clearly Sam Bailey? The constant hyping of her by everyone involved on the show. Every week everyone without fail mentions her name. Every week whether judges are asked who was their favorite of the night, who's album they would buy, who's the winner blah blah blah, they say it's her. Yes she is brilliant, but tonight she wasn't so much. In spite of delivering an underwhelming performance of Something it was praised to high heaven and Gary and Louis said they would definitely buy her records!! Please if that's not pimping and favouring then I don't know what is!
I really think this is now set up for Tamera to deliver that performance of the series. The judges will be up clapping and cheering exclaiming this is what we have been waiting for and now you are the one to beat etc. It may be in their best interests not to have her win because the publicity and interest in her could be phenomenal anyway, plus they could also cash in on their winner, but I am sure they want Tamera in the final shop window!
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Old 18-11-2013, 02:55
fireemblemcraze
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i'm not saying she is , i'm trying to work out what you think their motives are for sabotaging her and why she would willingly go along with it like she would have to have done ?
Same question for you - did you not think it was all set up then? With the judges and VT in particular making such an issue of it?

Therefore either way Tamera did not actually forget her lyrics but was made to forget them OR Tamera was was not made to forget them and was sabotaged Janet Devlin style. Your choice.
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