Although FA is very different from Pop Idol in some ways, would the BBC have FA at all if it hadn't been for Pop I? And if you were the BBC and were going to copycat an ITV show, you wouldn't do exactly the same thing, would you? No, you'd change it around a bit and add something to make it "educational". And you'd try to make it about "real talent": people who could write songs as well as sing.
It's true, as thenetworkbabe points out somewhere, that Strictly Come Dancing is, if anything, more derivative than FA, yet it seems to be ragarded as "innovative".
However, Strictly is a hit (by today's standards). And it's a hit in a timeslot that people had started to think would never see a BBC hit again. So natrually Strictly is going to be presented as "good", however "good" is now defined. And, to be fair, the BBC can't be accused of copying anyone else's recent ballroom dancing hit, because there hasn't been one.
Now this may be a controversial claim, but I think it's right.: Alex Parks saved FA's and the BBC's credibility last time, because she was widely seen as a genuine talent who would not otherwise have been noticed. This is especially so since David Sneddon was widely regarded as a failure. Despire FA supposedly being about real talent etc, etc, it had failed to find one. So it was really just a dressed up Pop Idol after all. And it wasn't pulling in a big enough audience vs ITV. So the "failure" spin was in and knives were out and being sharpened. FA needed someone different whose talent could be brought out and developed by the show. FA needed an Alex.
(I'm not saying any of these opinions of David or Alex are correct, or incorrect; I'm talking about widespread perceptions.)
That's one reason I think the stories that have the BBC waiting to see how well Alex's album does before deciding about FA3 make a lot of sense. If Alex is another "failure", then FA is just another reality talent show.
Nonetheless, it's possible that a successful Celeb FA will make a difference. If the BBC has a hit reality show, it's still accused dumbing down, and chasing ratings, etc. But if the show's a hit, at least the BBC is doing it well. And if it beats ITV in the ratings, the BBC's doing it better. The press also tends to praise shows that are hits. What really hurts is a reality failure. So if Celeb FA is a hit, that may encourage the BBC to risk an ordinary one.
Otherwise, only Alex can save it. Again.