she has leapfrogged Natalie and Sophie, I have thought for a while she stood a good chance, she really struck gold with Kevin as her partner he seems to be the most liked of the new pro's.
The next few dance offs will be interesting. what will happen if Bens popularity is good enough to keep him out of the dance off, I think once Mark goes the judges are going to have some tough choices to make.

I knew straight after their Waltz that the glitterball was Susanna and Kevin's. The Paso just consolidated that feeling. The support will build and build now.

They're not my absolute favourites but they LOOK like winners. They have that vibe about them. And I'd be happy for them if they did it.

Good for her . Not surprised. That paso helped her solidify a place for the finale imo. I still think that it can be anyone's game especially during the semis .

Do you mind posting all the odds for the remaining contestants ?

I will have a go but not done it before http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strict...dancing/winner

James and Brendon will be well peed off if Kevin wins at first attempt

Thanks. I would swap Natalie and Sophie position there and Ben is too low on that ranking . I think that he's the most popular man left so I don't understand why they would place him 2nd to last. He is the worst dancer after Mark but he's popular.

Brendan did the same thing

Brendan won at his first attempt. James never won.

Yep. After Saturday's paso I knew which way the wind was blowing and bet on Susanna to offset my loss betting on Sophie. So at least when she wins I get some money, but still... it's a rehash of series 7 for me - only happening because this year is such a dud.

Disregarding levels of ability, between all the contestants,
she has the advantage of regularly being on air "live" in her day job.
This must be a great advantage as she's less likely to be phased on a live dance show.

The male pros tend to win it on their first year - Brendan, Darren and Artem all did. Matthew's the only one that didn't.

Whereas none of the female pros have won in their first year: Lilia and Karen won in their second year, Aliona in her third, Ola in her fourth, Camilla in her sixth, and Flavia in her seventh.

well it was the first ever so Brendon was bound to win his first, but they have both tried for years Brendon would love to be the first person to win more than once and as you said James has never won(but his wife has ) so would love to win

Artem did it too. Brendan won it the first year, but it was the first year for everyone so it is not like he was competing against experienced pros.

you could say that a lot of the others have the advantage of being performers tho, actors, singers etc are used to performing and taking on a persona in front of an audience - its swings and roundabouts

i think she is doing really well and can see her winning - this weeks dance was fantastic imo

I agree, they would be a palatable winners

What do they take into account? is it just dance odds, or popularity? how do they work it out?

Only bet on the horses so, humans is a new ball game Lol

Based on bets placed. Looks like a lot of bets have been placed on Susanna to win since Saturday so the odds will change to reflect the bookies risk.

ah right, thanks

The favourites can change though. If Susannahs cha cha is pants on Saturday, Natalie will be fav again.

I believe betting odds (of all kind except one described bellow) are based on balancing the books (hence bookies name).
Many people now believe Susanna will win there fore bet on her. To make sure the betting house doesn't loose money, they have to shorten her odds, and viceversa. That is why they are almost always changing, because it is all depending on what the punters are putting the money in.

It is now the betting houses thinking that someone may win, it is the people who are betting their money. (Unless they are one off random single bets in which case the house does some research to set the odds, for instance you betting that the next prime ministers wife will have a child while at n10, in which case they would look at previous history, age of possible future prime ministers wife...).

Because the outcome of reality competitions is actually decided by people who also may bet (and not by chance or animals), I actually think reality contests are one of the more relieable -ie maybe instead of 1% chance of getting money back! you can have a 10%) things to bet, though I do not bet nor I intend to.

I'd prefer her to win with Kevin Fromm-Grimsbee.

Only if the money follows a great dance. Chances are, whoever is at the top of the leader board will attract bets because many like a bet on a favourite.

If for example lots of people started betting on Sophie to win, she would become favourite. Even if she were 5th on the leader board after Saturday.

I agree with the above opinions (Sid et alt) that she is indeed very likely going to win. She is a decent dancer, very popular pro, good chemistry and stand out dances (though not always because the dance quality). Add to that the fact that she is pretty much the darling of TPTB and perfect for the voting demographic (middle england) even though she is a woman, and voila...

Still, Ben and Sophie have a slight chance too if they maintain both their learning curves and love for the production team (judges aside).

The market's been slow this year - I'm not sure why it's taking so long for people to drop Natalie. Despite everything she's still in touch with Susanna. All she ever had in her favour was this supposed "guarantee" she was in the final because of the judging, and even that went in the bin as soon as her injuries started being her only storyline. All that's really happened is that Abbey and Patrick have yo-yoed up and down, and Susanna and Sophie have both come in to barely being favourites when they've had their *iconic* dances (Sophie having since drifted out again a bit). Maybe things will mix up a bit more in the last few weeks.

BIB i dont think sophie is good enough to win, she is great in hold but she's too vanilla in the latin - she gets the steps right but its like she is holding back - maybe it's cos she is shy an is afraid to let herself go (i hope that makes sense)