With just three weeks to go (), who do you think will win?

Abbey & Aljaz
Ashley & Ola
Mark & Iveta
Natalie & Artem
Patrick & Anya
Sophie & Brendan
Susanna & Kevin

Poll now up.

Begining to think Ashley is going to win

I think he will defnately be in the final, and who knows, maybe win!

Uhhh, I keep hovering my finger over Patrick and Anya cos I really want them to win, but they won't, so it would be pure foolishness to vote for them here. Just saying...

Realistically it'll be Susanna or Sophie, Natalie, Abbey or Ashley. Sod them

{Susanna, Sophie} - contenders
Ashley - only possible with a momentum surge, don't think it will happen
{Natalie, Abbey, Patrick} - probably not
Mark - no

I thought it would be Sophie, but Susanna continues to get nice theming (CCC aside) and good performance slots and has the Paso more recently in peoples' memories. Also, I thought Sophie would get her journey storyline sorted this week, but the VW isn't a wow dance to do it on, particularly. But, she is being treated like Louis by the judges, although he was beyond obvious as a winner. So, eh, it could be one of the two.

TBH Patrick is my second choice.

I can see an S in my crystal glitterball...but If Mark does go at last on Saturday I wouldn't really have a problem with any of the quarter-finalists winning.

I think we'll get a final of Ashley, Natalie, Sophie and Susanna. Ashley will finish in fourth, and if Sophie re-dances her Charleston, she'll win and Natalie and Susanna will finish joint-second (they're not going to change it, there are always 'time issues' to blame...). If not, Susanna will win and Sophie and Natalie will finish joint-second. We'll see.

Can't call it. Honestly think the show dance will be the decider.

I find it impossible to call this year. It could be any of them. I would like it to be Patrick but don't think he has the popularity. It should be Natalie but I don't think she does either. SO as a sort of blend of ability and my guesses about popularity/profile/fan base I would say Suzanna or Ashley or Sophie.

I am not helping much am I?

Sophie needs one good dance with a few 10s flung her way to really put her back in contention - but if she makes the final and gets to do the charleston again it's pretty much a done deal. Otherwise Susanna.

Not a Natalie fan but I can't see past her as the winner tbh.

Not sure where the perception that she's not popular is coming from. Is this forum and a few tweets really representative of 9 million viewers? (speaking as a non-tweeter). She will never be in the bottom 2 as others have said so we can't gauge her support.

Perhaps people underestimate Artem's popularity. He was easily the most popular during CRH's last touring production.

Her rivals would need to improve dramatically in the coming weeks, they are running out of time.

What do you guys think?

What if Brendan's showdance catapults her out of contention though?

Oh hang on....just remembered Kara's showdance went belly up

I just think she's going to be Denise all over again - she had one not-so-good week after an extended run at the top of the leaderboard and the public had never felt the need to vote for her when she seemed so safe. Of course, it is indeed more difficult to gauge as Natalie is far less likely to finish in a precarious position (Abbey only beat her in week 1 and tied with her in weeks 4 & 5, Sophie only beat her in week 2 and tied with her in week 4, Susanna tied with her in week 7 and the rest of the series nobody's even been close to her). But being so far ahead of the rest of the pack doesn't help you win, as Ricky Whittle or Denise can testify. And in the semis and finals they tend to start throwing 10s around like sweets so the difference in points becomes negligible anyway.

And I really don't think the pro makes a difference. Most of the voters are just the casual public who probably can't even name most of them.

EDIT: And as long as I'm here, I don't think the showdance makes a difference to who ultimately wins - people go into the final knowing who they're going to vote for, and only a total meltdown would change their vote.

Ashley or Susanna.

I can't see Natalie not winning, but I would very much like it to be Patrick. My second choice would be Ashley. I fervently hope it's not Susanna.

Good points.....it's like the judges are high....wheee....10's for everybody.

Friends that are casual viewers only know Brendan James and Anton and can't be bothered with the rest.

It's because people have watched the show before. The public vote for a new version of what they already liked in the past. If I had to compare this year to another, I'd say series 7. Natalie's journey is that of the female Ricky Whittle - all the pieces should just fall into place for her, but they don't. She's got a partner who ticks all the boxes - teacher, choreographer, dancer. They get on well I feel and are trying really hard, and she's far and away the best dancer on the show. But she's being pipped by the others who are much weaker but can make the most of what they have. For whatever reason, Natalie and Artem have failed to capitalise on their many strengths and bring them to bear on the dancing itself. They should be wiping the floor with the competition but they're not - I don't know why.

An interesting year though - the main players tend to produce 5 or 6 very good dances, but none of them have done that this year. I suspect the current top 3 are Susanna, Sophie and Ashley. But I reckon Abbey will take Ashley's place in the final since he will suffer with two dances. Natalie will surely be there too. Right now I guess Abbey and Natalie are vying for 3rd place; while Susanna and Sophie are fighting for the glitterball. The momentum is with Susanna though, and it might be too late for Sophie to come back into the game.

Susanna's reportedly not getting that much training time either so unless she clears her diary she may also suffer from lack of training at the 2-dance stage.

I think it's going to be either Patrick or Ashley.....the girls will cancel themselves out and the boys have had more of a journey. Although Suzannah and Kevin are pretty popular. I'm sure it won't be Natalie, Abbey or Sophie. Personally I get the most pleasure watching Sophie and Abbey but they seem to be going backwards and Natalie leaves me cold.

I want natalie and artem to win all the way they deserve it so much. I would hate it if susanna won. I think back to kara and artem and matt and Aliona when they were in the final everyone thought matt would win as he is on the one show but I stuck by kara and artem all the way and I'm sticking by natalie and artem all the way Aswell. If I have to I will be on the phone voting in the final as well as on the net, just like back in 2005 and 2010 I stuck by Lilia and Darren and kara and artem voted loads and they both won. COME ON ARTEM NEEDS TO WIN TWICE. We don't want to lose him from the show.so back natalie and artem please!!!!! Vote vote vote natalie and artem. Lets hope kara is voting for her man to keep him in.

I think Susanna and Kevin 'look' like winners, if anyone understands me. But that's backed up with good overall performances and a happy chemistry. That Paso Doble will also bring the house down again and I can't wait for the show dance.

Abbey, Susanna, Deborah and Nicky Byrne confirmed for the tour.

Guess this means Ashley and Sophie have no chance of winning now. (I know Alesha didn't tour when she won, but that was years ago and in the main the winner always does the tour)

I've thought Susanna & Kevin from the word go and I still think they'll win.