Is it mean of me to hope they actually have to try to do it at that pace and all collapse at pretty much the same time in an ungainly heap approximately ten seconds in, thus rendering
the entire thing unmarkable and given up as a bad job?

Natalie has blogged that she is not a fan of lifts. Not because she does not trust Artem, she just does not enjoy the loss of control. I don't think it's technically an issue, just not quite her comfort zone from that point of view.

I predict in the order being called out,

1.Susanna and Kevin
2.Patrick and Anya
3.Natalie and Artem
4.Ashley and Ola
5.Sophie and Brendan
6.Abbey and Aljaz

It certainly came across that way on Saturday, however:

Natalie and Artem have the highest total judges score at present though - 321/360 (average of 35.7) versus Abby and Aljaz 339/400 average of 33.9) Although Abby is currently on the ascent and Natalie is static (no percentage change from last week). Abby has had a perfect 40, Natalie hasn't.

I'm not sure that favouritism is that clear cut, no one has had consistent 36 or over scores except Natalie (4 weeks in a row with a week not danced in that run). In the same period, Abby dipped to a 32.

If Patrick can chuck himself about with anything like the gusto of his Charleston I'd not have him scoring in the lower reaches of this at all.

She has suggested similar in at least two VT's, I think.

I've got him pegged as 2nd place at present. Might change as the training footage comes out but he's done a lot of lifts already and this is coming up right after his Charleston so I think he's got a good chance.

He and Anya are the ideal size pairing for aerials, too.

It says that Abbey has an average of 33.9 on wikipedia.

I'm the first to admit my maths is ropey and the figures I found didn't have Saturdays 40 included, so I did some of the figures myself. Hold on, will double check.

You are right, which actually makes my point even more clearly than my bodged figures...

Current average Natalie - 35.7 Abby 33.9

The numbers suggest the judges favour Natalie, although as previously noted, Abby is on the ascent.

(Will edit my previous so as not to confuse)

If only it was a "swingerthon". That would test stamina in a different way!

Naughty! And not something the BBC would air at tea time!

I predict it will go like this

1 point= Susanna & Kevin
2 points= Natalie & Artem
3 points= Ashley & Ola
4 points= Sophie & Brendan
5 points= Patrick & Anya
6 points= Abbey & Alijaz

It will suit Abbey, Ashley and Patrick

But I can see Sophie, Natalie and Susanna struggling

However if the "conspiracy theorists" are correct then Natalie and Susanna will finish after Sophie "cos the judges want her out!" so Sophie out first and the others after her

Hope I'm wrong and Sophie and Brendan prove to be ace swingathoners

Why do people think that Natalie will struggle and that Abbey will be good? Abbey's jive was terrible.

Cynical me says the result depends on who the judges want to keep in the comp. If their faves (whoever they might be) are low on the leaderboard, then they'll do well in the swingathon.

Abbey, in hold lots of lifts etc suit her strengths
Natalie does not like lifts and is as tall as Artem which will look less graceful in this style (I think, just my opinion)

And she couldn't salsa which is also closely related. I've got no idea where this is coming from either.

They are different lifts. In jive and swing they tend to be low ones not the sweep up into the air and balance them ones.

There won't be much stepping though, just throwing.

I think they have a trusting partnership, Abbey had two big lifts and a small one in her Charleston, 2 big and 2 medium in her Salsadisco (is that a rule infringement?) and a sneaky little one in her Rhumba. This week she said she'd been practising her lifts at home with Pete!

Natalie had one little back flip in her Charleston and 3 in her AS, two of the three are the ones that are pulled out for the less adventurous lady, such as Fiona.

Here she says she's 'not a fan' of lifts: http://uk.omg.yahoo.com/gossip/the-j...121122454.html

And she was critiqued at the judges table for her habit of looking down on the way into a lift, something which possibly indicates trepidation?

Plus N & A seem prone to injury, and they may choose to priority their main dance training (top score worth more points than Swingathon) due to Natalie's previous exhaustion.

Nope, at least that will be an appropriate representation of the dance to the public at large!

I'd say yes and no. They can be as high, but they are kinetic sweepey ones, rather than lift and pose

I'm struggling to find footage online because it's mostly tutorials and I can't help but worry about the irresponsibility of putting 'how to' guides on a forum

As Patrick has credited Ryan Francois and Jenny Thomas with his Charleston choreo last week, I'm hoping they are sticking around to advise on the SwingaThon

I have to agree with those talking down Abbey's chances. I don't think she'll be that confident in the swingathon environment, and her jive really was horrible, even if her Charleston and salsa were OK.

Natalie, on the other hand, doesn't strike me as the type to get fazed and she's damn competitive. If she needs to get the lifts nailed, then she totally will. Her Charleston was pretty fabby and all the dances where she's needed fast feet - QS, samba, and what we saw of the jive - looked good. Plus she will have no qualms about manoeuvring round people.

Sophie and Susanna will struggle to keep their feet going fast enough and may end up looking dodgy early on, tricks or no tricks. Patrick's probably not going to let the situation scare him and he's got more training time than Ashley so I'd put him ahead in the battle of the boys.

But don't discount Natalie. She's done everything asked of her so far and she's done it with style - and even done it with injuries. This girl is pure titanium. My money's on her.

The judges will use this as an opportunity to fix the leaderboard.

As there will be six couples on the floor at once, with a good chance of the viewers only seeing one or two at a time, they won't have to justify their marks as we may not have seen a certain couple's "best" or "worst" moves in their routine.

Hope that made sense

I know 11 weeks in they are all feeling it, but if stamina counts - and of course the longer it continues, it will be paramount - then Abbey must have an advantage in that area: she looked as fresh and enthusiastic on Saturday as she did on the launch show.

Stamin-o-meter:

Abbey
Natalie/Sophie
Patrick
Susanna - may have been flagging from despondency rather than fitness issues
Ashley

Then there are injuries:

Natalie - back has to be a concern for this routine
Patrick - doubt his hand is fully recovered from the injury of a few weeks ago

I couldn't and shouldn't try to call it, but I do think Susanna's frenetic and somewhat messy style may actually suit the swingathon. I also agree with whoever it was who said this may be right up Sophie's street.

One thing I am pretty sure of, Abbey will whoop and squeal the most